 Agreed Digger.
The brief mentions in the q4 RNS, 4 weeks back, left the production ko date vague:
"Development of the new Gilar underground mine is progressing well with the first development ore expected to be extracted in Q1 2025."
That read to me like first ores coming from the ramps and passages accessing the sweet zone, i.e. "development ore", probably some time in March.
The targetted stope production to follow in April, i.e. early Q2.
The rock is densely faulted and also seems to be very fractured, slowing down development progress. Further, difficulties with water and pumping it out, as i understand it.
These difficulties seem to be being overcome OK and the prize remains abundantly promising; ever moreso with the ongoing surges in POG & POC.
As ever it seems, great patience is called for.
Fwiw, Reza's words from those q4s:
" I am particularly encouraged by the progress at Gilar, where we anticipate first ore extraction later this first quarter."
Well, he probably would have omitted the "particularly", if there was anything brewing that would impact significantly upon the Gilar production 'run-rate', once it gets going.
Reza also had this to say about Demirli:
"....where multiple investigations are underway, with a view to restarting production. Drilling has now also confirmed a sufficient start-up resource for Demirli."
I remain of persuasion that production will ko 2026, hopefully H1, rather than 2025.
The share price does not seem to me to price in much for this, even allowing for a considerably elevated jurisdictional risk discount post July'23 and ensuing tailings facility travails.
When the juicy cashflow from Gilar comes on, it may be this fuels an acceleration in progress at Demirli.
I expect AAZ will make that a [an even] higher priority than earliest resumption of the dividend [at least a fat one] but wtfdik. |
On 10 October they said Gilar would come into production in December. It makes little sense |
When you read the recent RNS's to me it implied Gilar ore will be the back end of Q1. Well that's the feeling I got reading them. |
It would be nice to know the current status as regards Gilar, as we are now approaching half way through Q1 and still no news. Especially having moved from Q4/24. I appreciate its mining and unforeseen problems crop up, so hopefully nothing to be too concerned about at this stage. However, let’s have an update! |
Pogue did you see BWY this morning, still uninspiring to me. Whoopie do, c500 units extra, little price appreciation, no wonder it went down. Am I wrong? Tell me if I’m missing something you see. |
FRG waking up this morning, for anybody who missed my post yesterday very bullish note on them here at 55.20, well worth a listen. |
at this rate, the market might be paying 120p for decent chunks of AAZ later on today :-) :-) |
Don't like to get involved in tiffs, but have to agree with you jamiedodge. There's only so much one can read about endless good deeds (which I don't!). |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
another GAP to keep an eye on!! |
:D
Looks like thiopia hit a nerve. Ah, foetus, he does add to the board, admittedly only laughs but he’s got the measure of “wiggle wiggle” and that’s amusing.
There won’t be anyone reading anyone soon.
A lot of very serious people. |
Good morning all, Cheers Wan :-) |
It should be noted from previous rises in the price of gold AAZ does not go up much but goes down when the gold price does. So far this is happening again. |
Thiopia, I don't often filter people but I'm filtering you. You add nothing to a thread that is otherwise a pleasure to read. AAZ is in production, is drilling exploration holes every day, and has projects ready to come into production within months that the market gives no value to. There is a huge amount that the market could be told about. PXC is working on sorting out the funding that will enable it to start generating news. It will update the market when that process is finalised. If you don't understand the difference then that reflects on you rather than me. Anyway, if your only response to a sensible comment is an ad hominun attack, you are on the wrong thread. So I've filtered you. |
Lol…. Head off to check PXC sp….. nope nothing changed for the better 🙄 |
Foetus ? If you were in charge ? Oh yes given your PXC success you should certainly be in charge |
Bozzy yeah, not alone thinking the rise in metals prices is yet to translate through to AAZ stock valuation; we need some numbers to see it in plain sight. Then as you say, the dividends. If 2025 doesn’t light a fire to the share price, 2026 with dividends will blow the bloody doors off! |
180 is nice as a very short term stepping stone, but anything less than £5 is an undervaluation imho, unless you're really concerned about political risk. |
Do we have a clear idea of what quarterly production from Gedabek will look like once Gilar is in production? Iirc the ore is 1.5% copper and 1.5g/T gold. How many tons a day can we process and do we know likely recovery rates.If I was in charge that's the RNS I'd want to issue. Gilar now in production. Monthly production target of X Oz gold, y tons copper. Starting last week. |
Oh blimey cmb. That’s awful.
What an ungrateful snivelling wretch this individual must be. I think you should have it out with them. Probably in a public forum in the hope you can make them see the error or their ways.
Let em have it!
:D
By the way, the rum you drink… what brand is it? Is it stronger than normal rum? Or perhaps it comes in big bottles?
And please, no need for Appolonias
;D
I really should know better… |
I'd expect 180 within a week of announcing a sensible 25 production target. At Demirli, our costs of production are 2k/ton of copper produced, and forecast production is 15k tons per year. So at current prices that's well over $100m profit pa from Demirli alone. Put a PE of 5 on that and take 40% off to reflect profit share and that's still worth £2/share. And that's a mine nobody outside this group even knows about. |
I know you're all doing so already, but look at the metals prices. Have AAZ's prospects ever been better than now?
Even the horrible shutdown could actually benefit us in the long run thanks to the incredible rise in gold and copper prices.
2023 forecast gold production 31,000 oz @ $1800
2023 forecast copper production 4,200 t @ $8500
2023 forecast turnover $91.5m without the government's intervention.
Mining that exact (low grade Gedabek) ground at today's spot prices would bring $130m in turnover.
A decent chunk of the $38.5m should drop to the bottom line, and easily cover interest payments and extra expenses caused by the Azeri government.
And of course there's better ground to be mined very very soon. Better grades. Bigger plant capacity. And at some point hopefully in the next 1 - 3 years a whole new mine to be reopened in Demirli.
And hopefully a few years after that, a huge copper resource to be tapped into at Garadagh.
Hope people managed to load up in double figures. The light at the end of the tunnel is shining brighter than ever. I'm already thinking about the size of the dividend in 2026. |
These are my price targets for metals by end August this year, according to the charts I keep tabs on:
Au: $3,300
Cu: $12,000
Ag: $40
all in the next 6-7 months.
That's one helluva set up for AAZ to bring first Gilar and then Demirli into production.
We could just blow through £1.80 in the next 6-7 months which sounds dramatic but is only a 60% rise & we all know how quickly AAZ can move once just a modicum of determined buying takes hold. |
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