 Pogue ive always dabbled with builders but sometimes, knowing an industry well, doesn’t help predict the share price movements. On the ground theres still excess capacity in some of the supply chain, shortages in bits here and there. The largest shortfall though, that just about everyone agrees is labour; some down to Brexit, but that aside, there never ever was enough to build 300,000 new homes. It’s a fantasy, unless you’re talking cheap, pre fab pods of some description and even then i very much doubt it possible.
If you were a developer, would you encourage easier planning laws, so you can develop prime sites, yes of course. There are numerous reasons planning consent can be held up, but essentially an easier planning process gives developers more choice. Most would be happy to build more, but would you increase supply to a point that prices drop, something Dom touches on in Bumpa’s article. So besides the economic backdrop Frisby reasons is going to weaken, he doesn’t account for the supply side challenges or builders margin aspirations; they are trying to squeeze the supply chain, as always. Noticed SHI the other week, they're a kind of in between actor in the market, substantial one really. Aside from poor debt position, there was no real encouragement there to say the construction sector is thriving in the U.K. Modest growth through price aggression maybe.
Longish answer but yes the builders are looking battered, maybe they are due a turn but I’m still a bit hesitant to pile in. |
Good morning Wan.
We are invested in the right commodity and at the right place at the right time IMO.
I think the next couple of years are important in our investing history. Let's hope peace prevails during that time.
I apologize for my behavior last night !! 😞
Too much Carribiean Rum last night.
Sore head this morning !!
Oh' our relationship with TRAFIGURA is going to play a big role.
I know they are not the best to deal with. Their loan helped us during trubulant times for AAZ though.
They will spread the word to others larger ones over time when the BoD are ready for any T/O talkes.
Let's hope the future is rosey for us. |
Good morning all, Cheers Wan :-) |
It's a good ol' laugh though isn't it?You know, rather inconsequential than non-existent |
A pretty decent update in the circumstances
As for the phantom downtickers, I hope they have them on autopost! If not they are wasting a lot of their lives (not that their lives can be bringing them much joy if logging in to BBs to downtick all the posts is the highlight of their day ). |
The case of Zachary Moore v. Alliant Credit Union et al. reached the Supreme Court in 2025, centering on the constitutionality of foreclosure proceedings based on a mortgage loan issued in fiat currency. Mr. Moore contended that such currency, lacking intrinsic value, did not constitute valid consideration, rendering his mortgage contract void and the subsequent foreclosure a violation of his constitutional rights.
In a landmark decision, the Court ruled in favor of Mr. Moore, declaring that the foreclosure proceedings violated his rights under the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments. The Court emphasized that contracts based on fiat currency lack valid consideration and cannot be lawfully enforced. This ruling called into question the legality of the fiat currency system and its alignment with constitutional principles.
Justice Scalia, delivering the opinion from beyond, underscored that the Constitution prohibits states from making anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts. He asserted that contracts grounded in fiat currency are inherently suspect, lacking the mutual exchange of value required by common law and sound contractual doctrine. The decision reaffirmed the necessity of adhering to constitutional mandates regarding monetary systems.
This ruling has profound implications for the U.S. financial system, challenging the validity of contracts based on fiat currency and prompting a reevaluation of current monetary practices to ensure compliance with constitutional standards.
hxxps://thinkingwithzach.blogspot.com/2025/01/zachary-moore-v-alliant-credit-union-et.html |
YIKES,,, thanx Bumpa,,, some fairly convincing & compelling facts there!!! |
Pogue - re house builders, from SP…
I agree with Dominic, as invariably I do. All the dominoes are lined up for a real correction this year. Anyone buying housebuilding shares needs their head examined. The great Frisby opines:
“Record Boxing Day bounce,” says Rightmove (RMV). Read beyond the headline and you get: “Our data shows a 26% increase in the number of new properties listed for sale compared to Boxing Day 2023, which previously held the record.” They’re trying to spin more sellers.
More sellers means more supply.
Meanwhile… a weak economy is not booming, so people have less money. Labour’s higher taxes also mean people have less money. Higher mortgage rates mean there is less money to borrow, and, thus, less newly created money to come into the market and prop up prices.
The rich are not coming to Britain - they are leaving, if they haven’t already left - meaning less money,
So we have more supply of houses, but less money to buy them with.
Meanwhile, stamp duty is a massive deterrent. Never mind people choosing not to move because of it, anyone buying a second or third home: who is going to pay 5% stamp duty for a second or third home? Not many people, I wouldn’t have thought.
More supply, less money, fewer buyers.
Then there is the general perception of the economy. People are not feeling rich, nor are they bullish about the UK economy, meaning fewer people will take the plunge.
What about investment from overseas?
See my earlier comment about stamp duty. The cost of buying drives away investment, particularly when it's dead money like tax for which you get no return. Plus the UK is not currently well perceived abroad, particularly in the States.
Then Labour is going to loosen planning laws and build a whole load more houses - well, they say they are - meaning even more supply.
As if that wasn’t enough, 2026 is the year the 18-year-cycle in property turns down.
And then there is this looming crisis in the debt markets, and potentially sterling itself.
If houses don’t turn down this year, I’ll declare this market permanently immune. |
£55,, nice one ssb,,, with you all the way, now that I'm invested :-) :-)
fingers crossed :-)
GLA LTH's
Cheers
Wan :-) |
Brickyards are still full to overflowing with bricks & manufacturers still having shutdowns ... was at one last week and they had 20m bricks sat there. |
Yes I watched the auction and frankly it just looked silly. Lots of jockeying for position with multiple positions from presumably the same parties. Seems like a waste of effort for the sums involved. |
A strange UT below bid at AAZ today. Expect price to open at 107.5 monday though. |
A sector I have been thinking about is housebuilders. Is this the bottom? Government talking about reinflating the property market and share prices for the builders near lows. TW PSN. Anyone feeling the same? |
yes, just saw that too :-) |
Delayed trade: 1m sold at BIRD yesterday.
Guess we’ll have to wait til Monday to see if they offloaded more today
ssb’s channel will have to wait |
The pump and dumpers are out in force at the moment. Which is odd as some decent companies are doing very well, so there's no need to play Russian roulette with judge fudge and the scumbag five |
There’s more than a whiff of dot.con about these AI punts, it’s going to end in tears for a fair few. |
The Rooster is having problems with the farmers dog again !!
I say boy, I say boy" I will say it again !! I say boy !!
A bird in hand is worth 10 in the field !!
😂 SSB !! I will let you play the game boys 😉. |
IQAI - that is what i'm counting on. He surely knows he could send it in this market with the right RNS wording. TBF to Freddy/ydderf he did rename the Company to IQAI about what 5 years back so he can't be accused of being a jonny-come lately to this recent fad
Bumpa33 - 17 Jan 2025 - 12:30:39 - 72664 of 72712 Wanobi & AAZ - AAZ
Lots of moon shoots recently, as you say mainly around AI.
IQAI - anyone who knows the main man there knows this is carp and he'll milk it. |
“Top of the channel” apparently
Not sure it can be top of anything at 5p |
Well, he’s obliged on the BIRD thread
:D
Bound to climb Monday therefore?
;) |
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