Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[thomas11] 17/4/2018 18:48

Interesting problem - a cash pile and what to do. Ordubad plant will cost what £30mm - £100mm?? As clearly the rock can't be shipped to GedabeckAccording to the IPO Ordubad is where the big bucks are although reading the annual reports for the last ten years or so they seem to back track on the potential, and I am no longer so bullish on this and they have delayed exploration whilst the company fought to survive. Now they have turned around and generating cash they are behind the curve on exploration and will end up with a cash pile. Maybe a divi is the best way forward ! Looking forward to the annual results and clear expectation they have turned from a loss making company to a profitable one with a steer on how they will spend the cash going forwardThis is my largest holding and like a number of others expect 80p minimum by the end of the year.

[mattjos] 17/4/2018 17:47

I'd stay well away from GEO. Do not trust Greg Kuenzel one inch!! + they seem to have got themselves mackled up with a local partner there anyway.

I don't see any pressing need to make an acquisition ... There is plenty, plenty of life in the Gedabey complex & we have huge unexplored/unexploited acreage to go at elsewhere. Later this year the results from the exploration will become clearer to all.

Why go chasing after a dream / promise elsewhere when we're already sat on the golden egg?

In two years time, things may well be different .. by then we could very well be sat on a big cash-pile & have the management structure & human resources in place to support an acquisition.
No hurry guys ... as Bill says, we're only just getting the wind into our sails. The speed will come soon enough

[2sporrans] 17/4/2018 17:08

Agree with jbe.
They might make overtures [and have?] to extent they think Azergold may bid.

Otherwise, I just don't get why AAZ would want to buy another co.

If the AAZ outlook was for a depleting pipeline say 5 years out, then maybe yes.
Contrariwise, the 3 year plan is predicated by there being an abundance of opportunities and tolerably proximate to the processing plant.
Like FZ says, Ordubad in the wings. [Armenian risk modest, if just explo. for JORCs]

+ hardly as if Reza, SW and team are idling.
A case of too much toast and too little butter to take on a completely new venture methinks.

Most of all, that applies to the cashflow.
And if there's plenty spare after all the explor./dev. needs taken care of, then I'll be singing with the growing chorus chiming for a dividend.

Given the exploration comes up trumps, won't the cash burn accelerate massively to extent the mines, access etc are developed, fast track, and all manner of add. mining/processing plant is acquired?

Well, there's always the debt route.....Is that what we want though?

[jbe81] 17/4/2018 16:39

Seems to me they would only go near another company if their operation in Azerbaijan was bought by Azergold.

[friendzarin] 17/4/2018 16:16

At this stage rather than buy another company what are the odds they fast track the development of Ordubad ?

[bumpa33] 17/4/2018 15:43

rather not see them go anywhere near GEO, or anything else Greg Kuenzel's been involved in come to that.

[jbravo2] 17/4/2018 15:41

Hmmm. Yes I can see us getting involved in another company. Not so sure about buying a company more a joint venture. Clearly we'd be supplying the cash and as such I'd expect any deal to be hugely weighted in our favour.
I'm not particularly keen on GEO, the resources don't seem too large at the moment. Of course it does have some logistical advantages.
I'd prefer something like CGH, something with real scale to its resources.

[jaspoland] 17/4/2018 15:32

Any thoughts on AAZ buying another company? GEO would seem to be a possible candidate and I know a poster here took a position a few months ago

[celeritas] 17/4/2018 14:47

I see stock is tight now, 15k max online at 42.9

[celeritas] 17/4/2018 14:42

Had a few more.

[cannonfodd3r] 17/4/2018 12:35

Sounds like they could have done a lot more if they wanted to but seems they are spreading it out.

Gosha needs a fresh approach I think, trucking the ore in never seemed to make massive sense unless it was very high content wise.

Gadir I imagine isn't being mined as such I wouldn't say, sounds like this is the ore coming out of the tunnel they are creating as they head towards the main pit. If that's the case then it looks very promising indeed.

Just a shame there hasn't been much movement. It's got to come as this is getting silly now, hopefully it will liven up over the next few weeks as word spreads that this is literally a gold mine in the making!

Fingers crossed on the divided front too, seems logical in the position they are now in. I wonder if it comes out of the blue or after AGM? Suppose only time will tell

[bleepy] 17/4/2018 12:08

Gadir average grade of 5.86g/t for Q1/18 compared to 3.56g/t average for 2017 is testament to the vast amount of expansion and exploration throughout 2017 and ongoing as part of 3yr aggressive roll out plans.

I note there was no contribution from Gosha mine for Q1/18 which has a bearing when comparing with Q4/17 output.
As with Gadir during 2017 perhaps downtime attributed to further exploration and expansion.

[2sporrans] 17/4/2018 11:48

You've hit on something there Bleepy.
Admit I hadn't thought about interdependencies between 2nd crusher installation/operation, the various plant configurations and the ore feeds, hence excavation choices.
Some of these relationships will be both ways; so which is chicken and what is egg?
E.g. how much did plant re-config determine switch in Ugur sourcing and how much did [planned/actual] extraction govern [the timing of] plant re-config?

There's so much more than meets the eye.
E.g. Guess there's a trade off between maxing on production volumes and on max. efficient extraction of metals via each of the Flot. AL and SART processes and their sequencing.
There's at least 1 ref. to this in these results; the metal purity of the copper [+silver & gold trace] concerntrate variations vis the plant process changes.

Whatever, there's no mistaking the abundance of the 2018 cashflow, both to date and prospective.

[bleepy] 17/4/2018 11:13

Terropol

My target for Q1 was north of 20kozs based on Q4/17 numbers.

Had not factored in the need to reconfigure plant processes alongside 2nd crusher installation enabling flotation and agitation circuits to be independent of each other.
Figures why they targeted and maximised the extraction of low grade ore to leach pads, the benefits of which will contribute later in the year due to slow process of leaching.

Q1 output extremely healthy considering plant downtime needed to reconfigure.

[goldrush] 17/4/2018 10:33

Gents

I too believe the figures for cash generation were great and the market will soon sit up and take notice. When they announce they have the new crusher in operation etc this quarter, drilling results and then Q2 figures....then with near enough no net debt....the dividend announcement will come and they could easily announce a maiden 1p divi for half year with the expectation of another at year end totalling 2p for the year. At a share price of 50p a yield of 4% is not too shabby with the expectation that can easily grow in future.....IMHO

[terropol] 17/4/2018 09:55

JBRAVO, yes you are correct on the cash generated, Brilliant result.

I was going for the over 20koz due to the 2000oz x week production delivered in Q4.
I was assuming similar.
But as stated by the company they rearranged all the process to accommodate greater volumes of ore at lower grades.
And dealing with the copper; bodes well for the rest of the year.

I am betting on dividend announcement at end of Q2/AGM end of June.

[jbravo2] 17/4/2018 09:45

Three holders? How are you so certain given they're not notifiable?
I'd guess there a few more than 3 holders with between 2 and 3%.
However I would agree with you and jbe yesterday that it seems to be one seller (or group of sellers), who has shifted over two million by now who has been selling since we first reached 40p.
They'll run out soon.
The figures out yesterday underline just how much they're giving them away.


@terropol.. the production beat my guess of 16.5koz but then we did restart the flotation plant in month 3. Not sure why you were thinking 23koz was possible. The important part yesterday was the change in net debt. Underlining just how much cash we make each quarter with gold at these levels. Reduced debt repayments, new crusher and drill rigs included thats a very impressive performance.
Cash cow.

[fozzie] 17/4/2018 09:37

Well you can't say that we haven't had ample opportunity to build a decent position at these prices. Great figures yesterday, simply a case of being patient from here on in, not easy i know ;o)

o/t Mattjos are you still in WTI? .55p now yuk!

[terropol] 17/4/2018 09:34

My Retirement Fund, those sales from yesterday could have not been ordinary sells, Market would have dropped the bid price. And if you noticed all on pair trades, Could be 1 sell 1 buy at same price.

Any fresh buying today will push the share price up to the 50p zone.

I was expecting a bit higher production in the first quarter, but looks they have been busy getting all ready for the next production attack with the new crusher and processing copper they had little of it to process in the Q4 last year.

When I was there last October the flotation plant was turned off.

[my retirement fund] 17/4/2018 09:18

There are three large shareholders with stakes under 3% I wonder if its some of those who have been responsible for the persistent dumping of 20 to 40k blocks of shrea. Yesterday who ever it was must have cashed in at least £80,000 worth.

[mattjos] 17/4/2018 09:05

anytime in the next 4-5 weeks edjge2. I am quietly hoping they issue them earlier than usual this year

[edjge2] 17/4/2018 09:00

Mattjos could not agree more and expcet gold to target 1360 in coming weeks. Iranian nuclear agreement Obahma likley not renewed by Trump should get the Israelis going at least.
Mattjos when are FY17 results due?

[mattjos] 17/4/2018 08:13

daft under-response to the news yesterday so, added some more this morning. Refuse to accept that this will not continue to go unnoticed, particularly as we are so close to the FY17 results which will prove this to be a sound, profitable & cash generative business in black & white print and in a time of strong gold prices.

[edjge2] 16/4/2018 22:44

Stuck at about 40p since jan 2018 and this and next news should see breakout to 50p. Stuck at 30p from Oct 2017 to Jan 2018 and about 20p from Oct 2016 to Jul 2017 so 10p impulses.
Winter usually not good for production figures so drilling looking good. Likely a cap here of mineralisation and has a bit of battery metal too.
RECKON A BIT SHORTSIGHTED TO SELL THESE NOW BUT GOOD LUCK BUYERS.

[mattjos] 16/4/2018 20:37

could be Terropol ... there will be some people who have been caught by Beaufort's fraud & therefore will be some AAZ stock being liquidated as a consequence. Doubt it will amount to too much though.

AAZ's typical news pattern is a red close to the day in question ... today was a blue one so, the tide looks to be slowly turning.