Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 10/4/2018 23:19

less and less stock offered at or below 40p for less and less time ... this has been going on now for 10 weeks or so .... more recently, the MM's simply shut up shop the very minute any buying emerges at that level ... its getting daft now, with just a smidge of buying at that level causing the MMs to retreat and widen the spread. Q: why are the mm's refusing to make a market for buyers at/around current levels. A: If they were loaded with stock and looking to shift it on, they'd be a willing seller. The fact they are not, seems to suggest they are no more a seller at this level than most of us here.

Two potential kickers for the valuation now hoving into view ... Q1 production update (likely) next week & then FY17 results 4 weeks later.

It feels like a case of 'take your seats' ... unless Q1 news is bad, I struggle to see the MM's concertinaing the spread back to 1p or less now.
However, can't rule out the historical 'sell on the news' (any news) trading behaviour for AAZ, shortly followed by a significant upward move a day or so later.
Hence, whilst I Bed'n'ISA'd a chunk yesterday at 39p, I've only used about 55% of this years allowance just now ... keeping some powder dry to see if next week presents another opportunity to switch the balancing 45% of the allowance into the ISA at favourable levels.
Markets are all over the shop right now so, may drop lucky on a bad overall market day.

[puntogt] 10/4/2018 22:44

..Regarding liquidity when does too little do more harm than good? If there is not a broad enough market to determine true value will the trading price of our stock be too low?

Kinda like if just one or two Samsung Tab S2 tablets on ebay was traded every month, then folks couldn't figure what is a good price or a bad price! (Compared to the reality of many a day.)

[puntogt] 10/4/2018 22:34

I would like to see the last news release re exploration & activities (looked complex) translated into "simple speak" for average punter (and me) to see the how much we can mine at what aisc and for how long.

[friendzarin] 10/4/2018 21:51

Just seen we are presenting at the Mining Capital Conference on May 3rd.

Great opportunity for us to set out our stall.

[friendzarin] 10/4/2018 20:59

It's good this board is so positive. I understand only too well why that is the case. However high expectations built from the specialist expertise we have here has not as yet been met by an appreciative response from the wider investment community

Now is the time for the AAZ board to do something more than report on what is happening and give us some vision on where they expect to be in the near, medium and long term.
It should be specifically tailored to attracting a wider investment interest and achieving a more realistic valuation.I would add here that I have not seen this ambition so far in this well managed recovery so I am at at a loss to understand why many here expect such high first Q figures (+ 18 k) to be on the cards given that the way is being prepared for the new crusher and all that involves.

Also as a personal gripe some liquidity would be useful if only to stop the market makers from creaming top heavy margins.

Financially with the debt position ,free cash flow and capex sorted a position on dividends should be relatively easy. I agree with Matt 100% that Rexa has cleared the decks on that with removing the company's indebtedness.

I have been in correspondence with St Brides on these issues. I know many on here have more history and track record of contact with the company. It would be good to know that the company is minded to create an approach which is targeted to raise profile and attract new investment commitment.

[celeritas] 10/4/2018 19:37

He can't really buy anymore without making an offer.

[wimbled] 10/4/2018 19:35

Happy with 18koz first qtr 18.
Anymore would beat previous 1st qtr production.

[return_of_the_apeman] 10/4/2018 18:29

Wonder if that 4mil is burning a hole in Reza's pocket; I can think of a gem of a gold mining company he could invest it in ;-)

[davidspringbank] 10/4/2018 17:36

The long-term chart looks like a stairway to heaven: 10p, 20p, 30p, 40p.

[terropol] 10/4/2018 14:18

And Gold trying hard to push up to $1350...

[mattjos] 10/4/2018 13:08

50k buy late reported at over Offer price .. that is what has set the MM's into a bit of a tizz during luncheon :-)

[mattjos] 10/4/2018 12:31

now nothing online again ... MM's do not want to sell any at this level but always keen to collect them in

[mattjos] 10/4/2018 12:28

if they buyback shares so Reza's holding will increase as a % of those outstanding so, for that reason, I do not see a buyback. Don't like them myself.

Adding some more today ... looks like the back-test of the upper trend line completed this am .. should be good to move ahead a bit now

[goldrush] 10/4/2018 12:21

jaspoland

There could be mention of Dividend in 2017 Results in the section regarding Outlook for 2018....IMHO

[jaspoland] 10/4/2018 12:06

Catsick, forget about share buybacks, won't happen due to the few shares out there already. Can see a dividend with interims in 2018 but not with full year 2017 results.

[goldrush] 10/4/2018 07:33

Gee Mattjos- -

Then my shareholding would be worth a £1 million....You will get me on the Beer and Champagne and it’s not 8 a.m. yet !!

[mattjos] 09/4/2018 23:20

thanks for sharing Henwii .. glad to hear form another investor reaching same conclusion as a few others here.

Almost perversely, I am quite happy that the undervaluation persists. By the time the market finally decides to prod the price higher, the company meantime will have achieved more & so the price will remain undervalued and therefore persuade others to buy and hold rather than turn this into yet another crazy AIM trading stock.

The way I look at the Gold chart, it has remained on an upward trend since Feb 2016 when it broke $1,150. In that 26 month timeframe, it has 'only' gained 16% ... over same timeframe, AAZ has gained 850%.

Here's to another 16% gain by gold over the next 2 years and a similar comparative performance by AAZ .... that would see us over £3.50 share :-)

[terropol] 09/4/2018 22:45

Mattjos, the Russia-Siria story will escalate. I hope we do not get a blown out war.

Gold should crack 1350$ this week.

Henwii, We are way undervalued compared to many miners in the market.

The market never liked or really understood the PSA with the Azeri government.

Looking forward to the Q1 statement.
If the company had not generated a considerable amount of cash Mr.Vaziri`s loan would still be in place.

[henwii] 09/4/2018 21:30

Oh and I'm going with 21,372oz for 1st Q 2018.

[henwii] 09/4/2018 21:27

The long and short of it is:

This share is the best value one out there as far as I can see. The only thing holding us back would appear to be the size of resource compared to those above. 3 of the above are based in Russia and one in Zimbabwe, which I would argue are more volatile than Azerbaijan. So just the resource update will really move us.

[henwii] 09/4/2018 21:18

I said I'd look at putting what I researched up on the board so here we go, hope this works:

In a table format:


Name Mkt Cap Turn over Resource Yearly Prod' AISC Debt Profit Location
£ £1:1.4(£-$) Size 000 OZ $ $ $

HGM 567m 247 17.2M R 261 '16 674 199m 162m Russia
5.1m rsv 272 '17

SOLG 375m NIL 17.6M R GEO NIL Spent $82m on drilling Ecuador
21.2m rsv $90m in cash in bank.

POG 236m 437m 20.2M R 336 807 585m 112m Russia
8m rsv '17 963 77m

CMCL 63.6m 41.1m 714K 887k inf 56.1 830 ? 12.1m ZIMBABWE
This is only 49% owned by the company! div 16p / share over the year.
Only 10.5M shares.

TSG 43m 36.6m 700k 36.7 670 14.8 8.6m Russia

ARS 118 Nil 373k Nil Nil Nil Nil Indonesia

[lefrene] 09/4/2018 18:54

I notice Polyus (PLZL)dropped 23% today reflecting Trump's move against Russian commodities, but it's still on a higher rating than AAZ! Perhaps the Chinese will benefit from cheap Russian raw materials?

[mattjos] 09/4/2018 18:09

interesting development, if true, that China has halted purchases of US Treasuries.

That would make gold sit up, IF it was officially announced.

The first Petro-Yuan contracts don't settle until September so, we have to wait until then before we get to know how much of the trade will be switched in physical Gold by the oil sellers to China.


Guess the world will find out later tonight what Trump intends to do to Syria ... only 3/8 Israel rockets got through overnight & you have to assume that IF Syria used chemical weapons, the source base will have packed up as much as they can and bugged out by now anyway so, unlikely to be particularly effective, particularly given how long the response is in coming.

Countries are groaning under the debt burden & many leaders have significant problems at home ... re-focussing their respective populous on some overseas conflict is a well-used diversionary & unifying tactic to overlook the domestic problems for a while & then blame it all on the costs of war.

Still feels to me like Gold price is in a slowly simmering pressure cooker right now. Don't know what will cause the lid to blow off it but, the list of possible causes seem to grow longer by the day.