Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 14/7/2017 10:09

Well I seem to recall you were both calling for gold to breakout at 1300 when I called the double top.

Gold has fallen almost $100 since then.

[el_duderino_7885] 13/7/2017 20:27

Yes exactly Matt and let's get this straight. I obviously have a bias in that I think there is a limit to how far paper markets can push gold down. My impression of tight global physical supply leads me to believe the downside in gold is extremely limited.

However if we break out of the bottom of the pennant - and stay there, currently $1,170 ish and rising, then the markets will prove me wrong and I'll have to admit that lower lows are likely and we aren't yet in a new gold bull market.

Until this happens I'll continue to watch the other signals and believe that we are poised for lift off later this summer.

I'm not permanently bullish anything, that's a great way of losing a lot of money!

[mattjos] 13/7/2017 19:59

Your technical analysis on Gold is quite correct El_D, as far as I am concerned.

If Gold breaks down from the penant then, maybe we are entering a new 'goldilocks' economic period .. in which case Copper should go on an extended run due to globsl demand from electrification of personal & mass transportation. All the Auto manufacturers are confirming they will go to pure electric and/or hybrid by 2020. This will be a huge new global demand for Copper.
Good for AAZ as we are sat on a mountain of it.

If the Gold penant breaks upwards then, maybe the financial world is not yet fixed from the excesses of the last cycle and we will return to another downward cycle with the associated mistrust of fiat currencies and the stampede into gold & Silver.
Good for AAZ as we are sat on a mountain of it!

Maybe Gold merely trundles sideways from the penant at circa $1,200, awaiting a catalyst for either of the above scenarios, taking silver with it and copper also at approximate current values
OK for AAZ again, we can live with these values.

It is the on-going debt reduction, cost reduction initiatives, optimisation of the recovery processes & of course the exploration results that are more important for AAZ at this particular juncture.

Reza Vaziri is the entrepreneur that secured the asset portfolio in Azerbaijan, has the relationship with the government, dragged Gedabek into production etc.
He is now doing what all successful entrepreneurs do & that is to surround himself and populate key positions in the management team, with people more capable and knowledgeable than himself in their particular sphere of competency.
Irrespective of ones beliefs with regards the price of gold etc. Reza Vaziri is building a successful and enduring company here & that seems to be consistently overlooked by folk here.
He has the team around him now and, intelligently, he is listening to them and acting on their advice ... Whilst at same time putting additional personal funds on the line to give the company the cash it needs at this stage.
Little in business ever goes entirely to plan or, in the timeframes one might wish for but, the progress is unmistakable.
If Reza is willing to back his own management team & their advice in this way, I believe shareholders should be entirely willing to do same!

[el_duderino_7885] 13/7/2017 17:16

Zhockey if you read back my posts I think you'll see I did in fact call a drop back in gold.

I also said the pennant it is in is inherently neutral so from a pure technical perspective point of view it can break up or down and until it does so it is neither bullish nor bearish.

It did break out of that formation briefly to the upside but looks like a false breakout as it has since broken down back within this pennant.

How is that completely wrong exactly?

You've been predicting the bottom to fall out of gold and Aaz which both clearly haven't happened have they?

While the jury is still out on gold technically I still believe we'll see a breakout to the upside rather than a breakdown and massive drop based on what I perceive to be a physical floor in the paper price and more and more sovereign tonnage hitting the bid.

Like I say we'll know very soon as this pennant in gold will resolve itself by the end of the summer.

You are desperate for this 10p buy in price aren't you?

[zhockey] 13/7/2017 16:44

Ahh El D, our resident gold expert. Have you come to admit you were completely wrong?

[terropol] 13/7/2017 16:14

well a few more for me today.

[mattjos] 13/7/2017 10:29

lets hope not a Friday RNS .. not the best of days to choose

[ferries5] 13/7/2017 09:41

Still Friday to come yet??

[mattjos] 13/7/2017 08:44

Looks like Monday for the update then

[el_duderino_7885] 12/7/2017 20:50

Gold fell as predicted although more than expected. Very interesting inflection point now.

It'll resolve that pennant within a month or maybe two and then we'll have a clear signal where it's going in the next few years.

I'm watching closely and still expect an upside resolution soon, particularly if there is any credibility behind this alleged 250 tonnes of gold demand about to hit according to Andrew Maguire.

Anyone who thinks gold is set for a big fall should read the following article:

hxxps://dailyreckoning.com/tale-two-gold-markets/

[mattjos] 10/7/2017 19:39

It's formed the wedge and just broken to the upside, dipped back to test for support last week.
This week we'll see if the theory is right and the upward move continues (with volume) or, we drop back into the wedge.
That, from a chart perspective, is the interest this week


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[casabella2] 10/7/2017 15:55

Why whats happening this week.Hope its a bit more than the last 20 weeks.

[mattjos] 09/7/2017 19:46

Interesting week ahead!

[andrewsr] 07/7/2017 16:21

I think you're right but not in my lifetime and not before it's hit $3000! :-)

[zhockey] 07/7/2017 15:29

Here comes sub 1000 gold...

[jbravo2] 06/7/2017 16:09

Quite right catsick.
Just keep processing with the plant we have for now.
The limiting factor is currently the crusher so get another of those if needed.

Continue to pay the debt.
The ATB loan is gone in 13 months.

We only need 150koz to show at Ugur for now.
Smaller reserves have allowed faster depreciation up til now.

[mattjos] 06/7/2017 15:38

agreed. Doubt they have shifted plant & equipment over there and built the haul roads at Ugur for just 50koz though

[catsick] 06/7/2017 15:05

I think if they needed more copper processing it would have been flagged as future capex, they should have plenty of oxide coming on stream from ugur so I dont see why any more capex would be now needed as they are pretty well set up to process any ore they want and are rapidly paying down debt, think we now have to just hold tight and wait for a jorc report on ugur and only need to worry if it says 50k oz there...

[zhockey] 05/7/2017 11:50

2SP, I would have no issue with borrowing $50M to build a small flotation plant to ramp up copper production. But they already have a lot of debt to pay off so we could be talking years.

[jbe81] 04/7/2017 17:59

Nice to see some new posters here

[2sporrans] 04/7/2017 13:08

Good observations petrusgazin.

"....if it needs to stay as a pit or start mining underground, the cash cost of underground will be higher but the better ores will be availiable, ....."

Yes, indeed so.

There has of course already been underground mining adjacent to the maim pit; Gadir has [had] operated for over a year.
Although I don't think AAZ provide a separate cost/revenue evaluation for Gadir, it looks very much as if the higher grades there have failed to compensate fully for the costs of developing the mine; this on account of the [thus far] relatively short run of the ore seam.
Hence the further exploration over the months ahead + the remodelling of the mines to follow.
As you suggest, it is improbable the Gold ores in Gadir are exhausted, let alone at/around the main pit generally, and certainly not the whole licence area beyond Ugur...Bitibulag etc.
Ditto the Copper {and silver].
Given the vast scale of the historic copper resource, there is surely a minimum prospect for expansion of copper mining, albeit at depth, in/around Gedabek which will require further substantial investment in processing plant; gold silver being produced largely as by-products as in the decades of peak production in late 19th + early 20th century.
Bear in mind that these operations ceased firstmost due to 'political' upheavals which forced the foreign owners/investors [Siemens] out.
Sure, the easiest/best-near-surface ores have probably been exhausted.
Then again, technology has advanced hugely since the past era of large scale production ceased.
Exploration/development at depth can be achieved ever more efficiently, cheaper and safer.

While there will, almost inevitably, be problems/challenges ahead, requiring $10,s-millions of fresh capital/loans [if there is to be large scale copper production at any rate], is there any good reason to fret or panic about this?

[mattjos] 04/7/2017 09:35

good post petrusgazin