Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[tolga1] 04/7/2017 06:55

Thank you petrus for wishing us all good luck
'Hər kəsə uğurlar arzulayıram !!!'

[petrusgazin] 04/7/2017 06:12

I think most people on here are worried about the wrong things, they have been mining in Gedabek for thousands of years, what has been done is find an outcrop of mineralization and then to follow it underground, the mineralization continues right all the way down through the earths crust as it was originally forced up from the core of the earth, there is plenty of resource it is just required to keep digging down to get more, those at the mine know it will be in operation for another hundred years, what is important is how deep down do we need to keep going and how much does it cost to get the ore out, at the moment the pit is efficient and needs to be drilled to see how to dig it going forward and if it needs to stay as a pit or start mining underground, the cash cost of underground will be higher but the better ores will be availiable, from the current 600 usd per oz cash cost there is a lot of room to manouver. Also there are many other sites in the area that can be found by drilling, even under the town of Gedabek there is valuable ore and in the region one does not have to dig down far to find copper and gold ores in most places. The mine will not shut from running out of ore, the mine will only shut if the cost of digging the ore becomes too expensive which is a long way away now. The new ugur site is going to be even cheaper ore than the current pit, it is good easy to dig and mill ore and right at the surface.

Hər kəsə uğurlar arzulayıram !!!

[zhockey] 03/7/2017 15:17

Jbravo, if they find a string of economic lenses then great. It's a shame it took this long to get the drill bit turning.

Gold is heading into a downward trend and perhaps the ship has sailed.

[jbravo2] 03/7/2017 14:18

Eh?
Even in areas with linked mineralisation you get breaks.
SOLG who have some of the largest mineralisation going still have gaps between their individual prospects.
I don't think anyone is suggesting all 300km2 is mineralised are they?

[zhockey] 03/7/2017 13:40

Well unfortunately it's not, if it were they would know by now. Just look at the Ugur drill results released to date. When they drilled outside the small core area they found nada.

[jbe81] 03/7/2017 13:15

Just imagine if Gedabek, Ugur and Biitibulag is one deposit and not 3..

[jbravo2] 03/7/2017 12:31

Yawn.
I really don't think its quite that clear cut zhockey.
I asked whether they'd committed to expanding the flotation plant and they said no it was still under consideration.
Until further exploration work is completed its really not worth committing to that spend I guess. Especially as they're about to add some ore without copper into the mix of things.

The plants aren't working at full capacity until we get another crusher anyway.

They also continue to work to find out if its a contiguous mineralisation between Gedabek, Ugur and Bittibulag.

(For further info though, at the moment, they are doing condemnation drilling to make sure they site new leach pads in the right place)

What will be interesting to see is what they've managed to get net debt to in what has undoubtedly been a lower half for production.

[zhockey] 03/7/2017 12:13

Dean, the problem is that they have loads of Copper resources but not the plant to process it in enough quantity to offset the decline in gold.

[deanmatlazin] 03/7/2017 11:56

Price of copper going up. I don't mind if we produce more copper than gold. And as long as they are making loads of money

[ferries5] 02/7/2017 09:09

Some history on Gedabey.And a interesting read

The Siemens Brothers in Gedabey







Copper was the main product of the Gedabey Copper Plant. The purity of refined copper bullion averaged at 99.9%, while gold and silver minerals were considered secondary output and were shipped to Germany without being fully processed. Furthermore, the gold metal content was very low, at 1/15 to 1/17 of leached ore. The records for 1867-1914 show that 58 000 t of copper, more than 3 t of gold and 12 t of silver were produced. Gedabey accounted for 20% of all copper production in the Russian Empire at that time.

[zhockey] 01/7/2017 22:56

Matt,

First gold pour was years ago, and now they are taking the drastic measure to cease mining in order to focus on a small oxide outcrop they found less than a year ago.

If the whole area is loaded with ore, what have they been doing all these years? Without finding Ugur it sounds like production would have fallen off a cliff. No wonder they called it "good fortune".

You may be right, but in the short term the risk is that need to pay off debt and beyond that what is left of their reserves? They invested heavily in Oxide processing but don't have a lot of Oxide ore. They keep going on about copper but 2000 tonnes a year is nothing, especially after the govt. psa is accounted for. If they are going to become a serious copper producer then they need to spend at least $50M on a sulphide processing plant.

Maybe they will get lucky with the drill bit but the last Ugur results published looked awful.

With the base case that Ugur has enough reserve to pay off debt, if they don't find more Oxide then I would guess they will be making about $5M profit going forwards. That is probably fair for a 20p shareprice. So where's the upside?

[mattjos] 01/7/2017 21:57

Brasso, the AGM was on the last day of H1 & the Board re-iterated their production guidance for the FY.

given that they already know the figures, near as damn it, for H1 I am obliged to believe they are unlikely, in 14 days time, to reverse the AGM guidance and give a lower FY guidance.
It's not impossible of course as we know the Gedabek operation is subject to the weather & we can none of us forecast that for the next 6 months but, they are mainly processing the stacked high sulphide ore now and they know it's makeup already (hence why they stacked it in the first place!).

The market looks forward ... no 'nasties' at the AGM .... so the Ugur JORC will increasingly come to dominate the speculation amongst participants.

Personally, I think they will one day simply admit that the whole Gedabek area is simply one huge contiguous ore-body with differing ore zones. I am quite sure they'd fond Copper, Gold & Silver just about wherever they drill around there. It's more a question of identifying those areas richest in one or more & then planning how to get at it and the processing methodology to adopt.
The company has the processing assets and know-how on-hand.

Stephen's job is surely to piece together all the data, fill in the gaps where there drill data is absent and then pit together a 'master' plan, as it were.
That is exactly what is afoot just now.

This is the bigger picture people need to focus on and as the jigsaw comes together, the sheer scale of the ore-body is what will drive the valuation very, very markedly upward. Between now and then though, we are still so stupidly undervalued.

[mattjos] 01/7/2017 21:38

zhockey, I have learnt to pay little attention to those.
I prefer to use:

EMA 13 & 49 on both a daily and weekly basis (ADVFN wont let you use 48.5).

This is an article I've used for years:

[brasso3] 01/7/2017 21:21

If Q2 production figures are good it will breakthrough 20p.

If Q2 production figures are bad it will fall through 15p.

[zhockey] 01/7/2017 21:07

The 50, 100, 200 tells another story.

[mattjos] 01/7/2017 20:39

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[mattjos] 01/7/2017 20:28

whichever way I look at it zhockey, it suggests a breakout from a falling wedge.

They usually breakout 60-75% into the formation & that is also true here.

There have been 3 successive higher lows since start of May. Friday closed above the 18.75p level, which has been resistance for the last 9 weeks.

The 18.75p level was the 50% Fib retracement level for Wave 1 so, it looks to me like it has climbed back above this now and I would expect to see closing daily support now at this level



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[zhockey] 01/7/2017 19:50

Matt, if you drew that chart correctly it would show the share price is at resistance in the downtrend, not broken out.

[jaspoland] 01/7/2017 17:26

Cheers Mattjos for the explanation. I took another block at 18p in the week and will continue to add as and when.

[mattjos] 01/7/2017 17:11

Jaspo, the trend change occurred at the 61.8% retracement level several weeks ago, when we moved off 15p.

Most folk still not even aware & as you have queried, are waiting for a volume 'event' of some sort but, they have already missed 20% of the new trend

[jaspoland] 01/7/2017 13:39

Thanks Mattjos for the chart. I always look forward to reviewing them. Don't we need some volume though to give us confirmation of a new trend?

Also thanks to those who have shared their views from the AGM.

[mattjos] 01/7/2017 10:25

pretty significant few days on the chart for AAZ this week!


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[brasso3] 30/6/2017 23:15

Whatever you all think (positive or negative) the market wants to see Q2 production numbers and will continue sideways until that information is available IMO.

[jbe81] 30/6/2017 22:39

That is true, zhockey, and it's understandable why you have given up on aaz. Just think you have got it completely wrong. In aaz' s prospects and the direction of the price of gold. Think there will be a few holders adding here

[zhockey] 30/6/2017 21:04

Thanks all for you feed back.

A word of caution on post agm optimism, every agm for the past ten years, folks have come away enthused. Yet true value has yet to be outted.