Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[pireric] 15/8/2018 21:54

Kev, apply this sales pitch technique :0)

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 17:45

@edgar, thanks for your thoughts

It's interesting. I also work, more than full time as I have my own business. I love research and investing, but find that I never find the time to research new stocks, unless I have skin in the game. So I have found the most effective way to achieve that is to sink £1k into a stock of interest, and then spend the following weeks researching. Those that I grow to like, get further investment. Others, I cut and run with no emotion.

Of the stocks you mention, I only really know BPC, and I have to say I'm bearish on that. It's binary, but i see the downside as more likely, and the upside nowhere near as high as you do. Different views make a market though, so good luck with it. Most of my money is betting on a turnaround in uranium after a 7-year bear market, through various different plays.

[gerryjames] 15/8/2018 17:00

Totally agree LT. Probably not PC these days laughing at environmentally enduced suicide... can't wait for March. It'll be like the 70s all over again.

[edgar222] 15/8/2018 15:25

Bmcb5Great post. Sorry to hear you have bailed.Fwiw I too have been in love here (for years) and suffered a steep learning curve. I dont believe I am in love here any more.I am now more diversified and involved in shares than I was. Aminex started as a punt followed by research. Wow. Just writing that down is embarrassing. For anlong time it was 100% of my "portfolio". It is not now but is the major holding.Heres the thing. I have learned a lot and made money. Not life changing amounts but doing ok. I have a full time and busy day job that can feel like 24/7 some weeks. Shares and research have become something I really enjoy.Heres the other thing. The more I have looked the more I believe in Aminex and the assets. The assets were never the problem. The financing and corporate side was. That is now sorted. So, with a similar experience to you my conclusion (Fwiw) has been to buy more. Obviously should have sold more at 7p but was waiting for next drill (back to back. Hah). I now own more Aex shares than I have ever done and at 2p-ish other profits are coming here.So I understand your decision but have concluded the opposite (Fwiw).Given you are out of Aex you might want to look at CERP (too low), IOG (doubled recently but not too late) and BPC (binary punt might lose everything might tenplus bag) ;)Good luck to you.

[bmcb5] 15/8/2018 12:09

Well, I have been holding onto this, as a small part of my portfolio, for years. I was attracted in, way back in TMF days, and have experienced the full range of emotions in that time. I admit I fell in love with the story, and got burned, several times.

In the past few years, the holding has been small - just a few hundred k shares. I kept holding them as a reminder NOT to fall in love with a share again, and that I am very fallible.

While relaxing in Mexico last week, I made a decision to get out, for once and for all, and never look back. This morning I have done that (with the last 50k). I don't care about the value of the sale. I will try to never forget the lessons I have learned in this share, which are too numerous to detail here.

All the best, and thanks for the memories.

[stinkypeet] 15/8/2018 11:02

I didn't get where I am today without using the one year chart... ;0)

[last throw] 15/8/2018 10:48

gerry

Nice one!

Brilliant comedy the like of which we do not see today!

LT

[gerryjames] 15/8/2018 09:05

The one year chart looks like a comedy prop for Sunshine Desserts.

[skinwalker] 14/8/2018 22:01

Bonjour DH.
The chartists were a 19th century working-class movement for democratic change, leading eventually to the Trade Unions and votes for women.
Andy is no chartist! He may try to use charts to predict the future, just as some old dears claim to read tea-leaves.
All nonsense of course.
All well with you?

[andyforster1] 14/8/2018 21:57

Not really I just tend to use very basic macd , rsi and stochastic signals to gauge entry and sentiment. Some buying tomorrow and the trend turns bullish. Let's wait and see

[dunderheed] 14/8/2018 10:11

Are you a chartist Andy?

[andyforster1] 14/8/2018 09:54

Looking for this to make a higher low to cement the swing to bullish. Then the traders will enter to push this higher. DYOR

[warbaby43] 13/8/2018 14:41

An interesting piece on the developing LNG market:

[jimarilo] 13/8/2018 12:04

The 25th anniversary Africa Oil Week conference is coming up in November. This is the biggest one of the year

I see AEX are presenting

[dunderheed] 11/8/2018 09:16

Reserved for Saul Goodman.

[warbaby43] 11/8/2018 08:27

"And as a special reward for shaking down UK companies like Acacia, Aminex, Petra, beating up, shooting, arresting, imprisoning and "disappearing" your dwindling opposition, here's another £100m or so of British taxpayers money so that you and your bunch of crooks and thugs can carry on the good work"

[gerryjames] 10/8/2018 07:45

The corruption has stopped Institutions investing in Tanzania. Amongst others.

They really messed up the LNG. Claiming a moody $520m in CGT from Shell's takeover of BG...when in fact it was bought at a loss. Now they're running around trying to get their act together and legislate on the project. Which could take two years just to decide on a legal framework. Hopefully more water tight than Aminex's imminently useless GSA.

[dunderheed] 09/8/2018 12:56

Absolutely they've got this so wrong for so many years it beggars belief.
The whole reason that there weren't any other interested parties with the Zubs in place is self perpetuating and prior to Zubs was also so, in that no-one was interested in touching AEX with a bargepole, because of misguided 'mgt' 'operated' aspirations or other limitations lol!

All imho of course.
But we are where we are so let's try and make the best of this - which means BOD halved plus salaries of 'remainers' reflect their performance to date and be incentivised to future share price growth or institutional investors coming onboard!
The fact this will not happen is likely to hold the share price back for potentially a long time. Again all imho.

[stinkypeet] 09/8/2018 12:52

I do not believe this is likely for one very good reason. As you have already inferred the Zubiars will want to avoid taking on any more risk than they can avoid and also avoid having to spend any more on development than they can get away with. AEX still has the vast potential of Nyuni and, to lesser extent, Kiliwani to exploit yet. They will want Aminex shareholders to fund the majority of that development and take most of the risk (70%). Once Nyuni has been sufficiently derisked they will then likely as not look to take operational control of those assets too leveraging their 29.9% holding..... That is a far more attractive proposition, reduces their risk for the forseable future and still allows them to acquire the assets at some future date at a far lower price than having to acquire AEX as a whole.... (a la Ruvuma 0.9 TCF for $40 million)

Once Aminex has been denuded of most of the upside and the MC has no where to go they can then buy the "husk" that remains as and when they like for a song.

[hardnose] 09/8/2018 12:33

I agree with your first points stinky - I'm aghast at the justification for the pay rises.

On from that - I think they've had reasonable relations which is why Aminex hasn't yet gone under or had their licences relinquished. I think those have soured as the cash ran dry but with the cash injection they now have there is something to be leveraged from those relationships. Other than that I pretty much agree with what you've written.

I was trying to make the point that shareholder value is still at risk because the MCAP makes it a target and once operational risk is further reduced then we become more of a target and share holder value is lost. That's why I can't get behind the deal 100% and I would like to see evidence from the management team that they are supportive of this deal un-lockoing value rather than us being taken out as soon as a buyer perceives risk to be reduced to the level as to provide assurance on the investment. Still too much spin in my view.

[stinkypeet] 09/8/2018 12:18

successful drilling of Ntorya-2 well

"successful"?! It should have come in at 40+ MMscf/d and AEX very nearly blew it.

continuing production from Kiliwani North-1

At the time of the pay rises it has already been established that Kiliwani had run in to trouble and 16 months later it still is. Remediation was the No1 priority at May 2017 AGM.

repayment of all debt of the Company

Maybe they now wish they hadn't; they may now still have some cash flow? Under duress from ARA to repay?

Submission of Development Licence application for Ntorya discovery

Nearly 12 months later no progress and whilst AEX shareholders will have funded CPR, IO Commercial study who will be reaping the principal benefits? Zubairs.

Hardnose, you suggest "Would it not be better for them to invest a smaller sum now, leverage Aminex's Tanzanian relationships and technical understanding of the asset with a view to swooping if and when the asset has been proven?

This presupposes that Aminex would ever have managed to "prove" the asset and have meaningful relationships with Tanzanian authorities - both of which I question. I think all evidence indicates that TPDC were not going to let AEX continue as Operator of Ntorya (maybe due to the disappointing operational performance at KN1 and NT2). I believe that the Zubairs and Aminex collectively realised that the only way forward was for Zubairs to take over the asset at which point the TPDC would then, and only then, provide the "partners" with the sign off needed to progress.

This is also the likely reason that AEX failed to find any alternative funding support beyond the Zubairs.

[hardnose] 09/8/2018 11:58

I agree with that point Peter. I think the funding risk has been successfuly reduced and for that the deal should be applauded. But given the history I don't think it prudent to simply go along with the narrative. For example, there is still operational risk and I'd wager that is one factor why the Zubair's have not simply taken Aminex out.

Would it not be better for them to invest a smaller sum now, leverage Aminex's Tanzanian relationships and technical understanding of the asset with a view to swooping if and when the asset has been proven? That for me is a clear exit strategy where share holder value is realised and is a story worth selling, especially if it's backed up by material stock purchase by the executive team.

Large basic salary increases and attempting to sooth nerves by pointing to an institutional investor being happy isn't in my view, the best tact.

[greyingsurfer] 09/8/2018 11:06

For me, the prize here is and always has been a high risk punt on Ruvuma

I'd largely agree with that. But surely the point is that the deal has exchanged a great deal of the risk for a big chunk of the interest. I'd say the the risk involved in getting to the initial target 40mmscfd is now no longer "high", probably even moving towards "low". And they could probably do that from the existing wells. Of course the bigger prize is C1 (for starters) and proving up a lot more of the potential, and clearly the risk there is higher - but again significantly reduced since the funding risk is resolved.

Peter