Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[vike1] 16/4/2016 22:33

BLVN on the LSE board for reference. The paraphrased discussion be taken with a grain of salt for sure,but sounds like it was relayed with honest intentions.

Agree re the TPDC feedback. Though we'll prob never know what really transpired in those discussions, it was intimated by Blvn that they needed to rush out that statement for some unknown reason. Wish we had a similar event to question AEX mgmt on such things.

The point is, we don't know how far apart all sides really were, and what wiggle room existed.

It's still likely all parties have moved on, but remains an intriguing possibility until proven otherwise.

On your last point, while a deal might require shareholder approval before closing (depending on materiality) an announcement wouldn't be needed if an offer was proposed.

[warbaby43] 16/4/2016 17:42

"BLVN held an in-person investor update day this week (comms with investors - what a thought!) and apparently their CEO commented at the end that they've completed DD on a target and hope it goes through. The other side is still considering."

BTW, Vike1, I am a little intrigued by that - which board did you see that report, certainly no mention of it by attendees reporting on the ADVFN board.

Further, as it's more than just an implication that an offer (or revised offer?) had been made, unless it was to a private company, it would be a significant event requiring report to shareholders.

[greyingsurfer] 16/4/2016 14:47

If I were BLVN, I would make an all-stock offer for AEX (e.g. 1 BLVN share for 20 AEX shares).

If you were BLVN, you might quite possibly. However offering less in paper than the current share price would be even more questionable than getting cold feet and pulling out after signing the HoA. Anything less than 1:10 in paper would be laughable, and I doubt I'd be inclined to accept that. If they do make a low offer now, having had access to the paper work and messed the company and shareholders about it would do little to impress or make me likely to want to hold paper in the company.

Peter

[bunbooster2] 16/4/2016 09:50

Yes, simple as that. Can't see why they didn't think of this simple solution sooner.

[vike1] 16/4/2016 09:33

Based on lack of progress on Ruvuma, I suspect AEX mgmt need some strategic creativity. Hopefully they're looking at all the options. As per the above, terms would be closer to 10 shares for 1, but you get the idea

[bunbooster2] 16/4/2016 09:20

There's quite a lot of producing entities they could buy - might be a bit of a stretch! I think rather than speculate it's wiser to wait and see... although less amusing.

I think KN-1 was always a bit of a makeweight in the proposed BLVN deal. The large upside here is Ruvuma (Dodsal would literally value a discovery there at billions!!!). Hopefully someone will take a slice of Ruvuma but I imagine they'd want some of the guaranteed-ish cash from KN-1 as well.

Bounty have given a clear wink that they are looking but that would surely be a minor stake. Aminex on 75% is looking difficult.

[vike1] 16/4/2016 09:16

My comments on BLVN from another board:

BLVN held an in-person investor update day this week (comms with investors - what a thought!) and apparently their CEO commented at the end that they've completed DD on a target and hope it goes through. The other side is still considering. Some Twitterati have been commenting as well.

If I were BLVN, I would make an all-stock offer for AEX (e.g. 1 BLVN share for 20 AEX shares). At the cost of short-term dilution it would give BLVN a producing asset and BIG upside exploration targets. For AEX it would give them access to BLVN's $100m+ cash to fund Ruvuma for years and enable AEX holders to benefit from further upside as a BLVN holder.

I'm not saying I want that to happen, but I can see the strategic rationale.

[cervelo] 16/4/2016 07:42

A producing acquisition, I guess they could acquire KN from AEX and SOLO

[kevjones2] 16/4/2016 00:08

In fairness to the rest of us Edgar, weren't you posting here about how magnificent Jay Bhattacherjee was when the failed Bowleven deal was 'agreed'? If my memory serves me correctly, didn't you specifically ask where the 'Anti-Jay' posters were?

Newsflash, we're still here. You know something? You, and others, have never once acknowledged how wrong you were. What is that about Aex cheerleaders?

Maybe the next time he'll be right

[edgar222] 15/4/2016 22:17

Malcy hinted at the Aminex relationship not being over, didn't he?

Have they done due diligence and have decided they want all of Aminex not a farm in?

I would be gutted. They will get it on the cheap.

[warbaby43] 15/4/2016 16:44

A post this afternoon on the BLVN board:

tli8jaguar 15 Apr'16 - 15:35 - 11213 of 11213 0 0

Geoffrey N Lancaster ‏@oilinvestorlanc 5h5 hours ago
Seems BLVN are on the brink of doing a producing acquisition. What have they got up their sleeve?

[skinwalker] 15/4/2016 16:09

Alsatian
Corgi
Aminex
Spaniel
Labrador
...

[bunbooster2] 15/4/2016 13:18

not working

Hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNzFLwsFiOM

[blackgold00] 15/4/2016 11:21

ah Bun, just change the first letter of the link h to a capital H

for demo purposes only

before change
hxxp://www.orcaexploration.com/2016/Orca_Q4_2015_FULL.pdf

after change


hey presto

[blackgold00] 15/4/2016 11:09

ngms, "No Wentworth / M&P are supplying these"

No, TPDC are supplying these.

ngms, Orca is still supplying Tanesco with aprox 30 mmcfd of additional gas (not the protected gas) through the old SS plant via a PGSA, there is nothing to stop Tanesco replacing Orca's SS gas with TPDC gas, which is where I believe KN gas is destined for.

[bunbooster2] 15/4/2016 10:55

blackgold - what kind of computer are you using to format your links? Mine always come out with xx in them.

[greyingsurfer] 15/4/2016 10:54

Am I reading this right? This is a custom plant specifically to provide power to a flour mill using the new gas available. So completely outside of the gas to electricity plants (Kinyerezi, etc)?

Yes. Big increases in gas use by industry is a central plank of justification for the pipeline. It's not just intended to feed power stations.

No detail given, unfortunately, about likely timescales for the completion of the plant. One of the key issues, clearly, in terms of future demand for gas from Ruvuma etc is going to be how rapidly industrial uses expand.

Peter

[ngms27] 15/4/2016 10:52

No Wentworth / M&P are supplying these

[blackgold00] 15/4/2016 10:51

still no agreement for Orca to supply gas to TPDC and into the National Natural Gas Infrastructure.

new report


page 3
"The US$1.2 billion government sponsored Tanzania National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project (“NNGIP”) is substantially complete, and the NNGIP gas
processing plant on Songo Songo Island is expected to be able to take first gas by April 2016. The Company has submitted a draft gas sales agreement to TPDC to allow direct gas delivery to the NNGIP. Commercial terms remain a key condition to the Company’s commitment to expand Songo Songo natural gas sales beyond the existing Songas infrastructure and to supply gas to the NNGIP".

I think this explains where KN-1 gas could be going.
page 6
"There has been a 14% decrease in the 2P present value at a 10% discount basis from US$417 million to US$357 million on a life of license basis."

"The decrease in value is predominately a consequence of the slower anticipated power sales to TPDC via the NNGIP Infrastructure. In order to commission the NNGIP gas processing plant in Mtwara in September 2015, the Company under
a Government of Tanzania directive was requested to allow connection to the NNGIP Infrastructure of two TANESCO power plants previously supplied under the PGSA contract. The slower than anticipated construction and commissioning of additional power plants has resulted in the inability of the Company to make additional gas sales despite the completion of the Company’s offshore component of the development plan jointly approved with TPDC."

"Previous reserve reports valuations have been based on the assumption that the PGSA contract would be rolled out for deliveries to the NNGIP infrastructure. Following the connection of the two PGSA delivery points and the continued supply of gas to these plants by a third party, this assumption has been revised using the gas price contemplated for future sales to TPDC for valuation purposes. There is no guarantee that this proposed price will be realized and as such there could be further adjustments to the Company’s 2P present value once the negotiations are finalised and a new gas sales agreement is signed with TPDC."

[bunbooster2] 15/4/2016 10:17

Solo results. Gripping stuff. - hxxp://www.orcaexploration.com/2016/Orca_Q4_2015_FULL.pdf

[bunbooster2] 15/4/2016 09:59

This is interesting - hxxp://www.dieselgasturbine.com/April-2016/Jenbacher-Chosen-For-Tanzania-CHP-Plant/

Am I reading this right? This is a custom plant specifically to provide power to a flour mill using the new gas available. So completely outside of the gas to electricity plants (Kinyerezi, etc)?

[stinkypeet] 14/4/2016 18:57

Listening to all the recent interviews and reading the commentaries I think I am right in saying that, broadly, the testing and commissioning phase is likely to take 6-8 weeks after which AEX will take a further few weeks to evaluate the optimal flow rate for maximising the lifespan of the well..... These things are to happen in sequence not in parallel.