Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 05/4/2016 20:11

or

"You can lead a horse to water........". Having said that I do have a nemesis share myself. Maybe every portfolio needs one? The joys of psychology.

FWIW the biggest lesson I have learnt is not to average down......ever.

[the grim reaper1] 05/4/2016 20:04

thanks for ur honest edgar222. So you are in no matter what. Very brave, I think you cannot sell no matter what happens but that is your choice and good luck. Things change in companies so a very nieve investment strategy but I hope it works for you. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.''

[blackgold00] 05/4/2016 19:58

greyingsurfer, "Regarding Orca, of course, the production capacity increase is only potential. They can't do it at the moment, and they can only supply what is taken. It would make no sense, particularly given the history, for TPDC to take possible additional Orca gas over KN-1 gas behind the tap now"

plus as far as i know, the SS gas wells which are owned by songas and runned by Orca, are at present only connected to the old processing plant which is also owened by Songas and runned by Orca, and, as from Orca's last report they are still in negotiations with TPDC to supply additional gas into the new processing plant and infrastructure that is owened by TPDC. So i suppose untill an agreement the SS wells will not be a connected.

[edgar222] 05/4/2016 19:50

Reaper,

Those of us that have been here for years have already discussed the pros and cons uphill and down dale. I wont speak for others but I have made my bed here and believe in the story. Its just waiting now. Precisely what we are waiting for has been listed here for years. Just read back into the history of this board.

Nothing more to say, for me.

[the grim reaper1] 05/4/2016 19:46

Listen Fellas. This BB has moved to discussion about politics and the economics of Tanzania. What happened to discussion around the investment possibilities (or not) of Aminex? No doubt all the regular posters who are underwater with no chance of ever recovering their original investments and averaging downs are ignoring the start truth and hiding behind other issues in Tanzania, to distance themselves from losses.
Why is noone discussing Aminex itself? Those that do , dan, PJ! and ngms for example get ignored or put down when they are closer to the truth than all others imo.
How come the regular posters are not discussing the dire financial position the Co must be in and its need to raise cash. Why is noone questioning how much the Directors have syphoned off for no shareholder return? What about selling its assets iin Moldova is it or Revs from Shoats? What about the other opportunities out side Tanzania the Board mentioned and nothing! Why is malcy always positive about the Co when it keeps failing? Now Lenigas ramps it via SOLO, Christ thats the biggest red flag there is that dilution on the ways.
Its the most bizarre BB I follow. Gallows humor.

[greyingsurfer] 05/4/2016 19:12

600MW capacity coming on stream in the next 12-18 months" simply doesn't square with any reality

I think you always need to read Solo's comments with a pinch of salt.

However, I don't think it's as simple as you suggest. The new gas power generation demand is not only from K-1. They have also been converting a number of dual fuel power stations that had been running on oil to gas. I'm not sure how much they will use, or when they came, or will come on stream (though certainly before 2017). There will also be additional industrial demand, though I have no real idea, or access to information, on how much and how soon.

I doubt 600 in the next 18 months, but it might well be a lot closer than you think.

Regarding Orca, of course, the production capacity increase is only potential. They can't do it at the moment, and they can only supply what is taken. It would make no sense, particularly given the history, for TPDC to take possible additional Orca gas over KN-1 gas behind the tap now.

Demand does become a question in relation to early production from Ntorya, though I suspect that by the time that comes on stream the situation will be clearer, and different.

Peter

[warbaby43] 05/4/2016 17:53

"600MW capacity coming on stream in the next 12-18 months" simply doesn't square with any reality. Other than the possible expansion of Kinyerezi -I from 150 to 185MW, the next plant due to come on stream is the 240MW Kinyerzi-II of which only 160MW is to be gas fired and that is not now due until 2018.

The really large expansion in capacity will come from the Ferrostahl fertiliser plant along with the 600MW Kinyerezi-III and the Symbion Mtwara 400MW plant (if both of those can secure funding) in around 2019/2020. It will be only then that Tanzania becomes "desperate for gas."

Also to be factored into the supply/demand equation is M&P's 80mmcfd and Orca's expansion of their production capacity from c100mmcfd to 185 mmcfd.

[impvesta] 05/4/2016 15:28

Excellent link Vike. Reassuring words from Neil Ritson and reassuring notes on the presentation on screen during his interview. On screen notes include:

"Kiliwani North production at 20 mmscfd will only scratch the surface of demand...."

and

"Kiliwani North will only provide 14% of the Tanzania's domestice natural gas demand in the near term."

[blackgold00] 05/4/2016 15:18

thanks for that Vike, not long now then, fingers firmly crossed.

[vike1] 05/4/2016 14:10

Try again

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/4854/solo-oil-plc-boss-talks-tanzania-gas-potential-4854.html

[vike1] 05/4/2016 14:02

More from NR on Proactive Investors today.

[...]

[bunbooster2] 05/4/2016 11:19

hxxp://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/solo-oil-plc-domestic-natural-gas-demand-set-soar/412698267 (works on all computer types)

[blackgold00] 05/4/2016 09:27

ngms, what an early bird, have you had a little punt this morning on Aminex?

[warbaby43] 05/4/2016 07:57

Thank you for that edgar222.

"If the well is not to be put onto production for another 8 months this would highlight my already noted concerns that while Tanzania is desperate for gas and power, the infrastructure in country is not ready for additional gas flow. With the Kinyerezi II power plant (the closest item I can think of that would generate gas demand) at least 18 months from completion I am left wondering where Aminex gas could be used."

This goes to the heart of my own concerns and is what I have been banging on about for some while; nor is this very central question directly answered in the response. Moreover, construction of Kinyerezi-II has only just commenced and it has already been indicated that its start-up has slipped from scheduled 2017 into 2018.

2015 Results due next week as are, coincidentally, BLVN II and PI presentations.

[ngms27] 05/4/2016 05:19

Very laughable given the looming $8m loan (probably $11m now), the cashflow from KN-1 won't pay the bills, probably loss of some of KN-1 due to not meeting Ruvuma license terms and possible loss of all Ruvuma acreage.

[ngms27] 05/4/2016 05:19

Very laughable given the looming $8m loan (probably $11m now), the cashflow from KN-1 won't pay the bills, probably loss of some of KN-1 due to not meeting Ruvuma license terms and possible loss of all Ruvuma acreage.

[bigsi2] 04/4/2016 19:34

MCap of 24M laughable really

[bigsi2] 04/4/2016 19:33

1.2p = still overvalued

[dan_the_epic] 04/4/2016 18:08

Well I'm back and increasingly in the black with Amineggs.

Commercial production is now a decoy IMO. Who in their right mind will stump up cash for a massive drilling programme knowing how unreliable the Tanzanian government are, and how pitiful the eventual cash flows into Aminex will be versus the drill costs and the fact that if the drills fail, then Aminex will be quickly running out of money.

Situation made harder by the short shelf-life of Kiliwani and tiny resource base there, that could make getting substantial (£10m+) borrowing against it damned hard. Equity at this level? Would go towards dilution oblivion with 1p par value too.

Moreover, maybe my Q2 2016 full production start expectation for Kiliwani is now looking a little optimistic....

Anyhow, I have a 1p target by mid-May IMO.

[kevjones2] 04/4/2016 17:33

more from James Ashton:

2 hours ago (time of writing this 17:30:
@James_M_Ashton will be lucky to break-even here and would have taken all the risk. Not a happy Holder

Yesterday:#aminex Finally going to see gas flowing this week or more hot air from JB and NR?

[last throw] 04/4/2016 17:30

Edgar

Thanks a lot for that - quite reassuring after today's shenanigans!!!

LT

[edgar222] 04/4/2016 16:33

With thanks to James Ashton on Twitter.

His e mail to the PR team:

Hello Gordon,

I hope you are well and had a good weekend.

I have noted the news from Aminex this morning, while its good that the company has some further funds in its account there was an item that was a little concerning and this was

“The KN-1 well, which is now ready to begin production, has been ascribed contingent resources (2C) of gross 28 billion cubic feet by LR Senergy and the Company expects to book reserves from this well by the year-end, marking the first reserves for the Company in Tanzania.”

Previously the KN-1 well was due to be flow tested in April and would assume that would be put on production soon after, however the statement above would indicate that the Tanzania Authorities are still yet ready for commercial production for at least another 8 months. Are you

able to share with me a more detailed status update as to where the Songo Songo gas processing plant is in terms of commissioning for KN-1 gas.

If the well is not to be put onto production for another 8 months this would highlight my already noted concerns that while Tanzania is desperate for gas and power, the infrastructure in country is not ready for additional gas flow. With the Kinyerezi II power plant (the closest item I can think of that would generate gas demand) at least 18 months from completion I am left wondering where Aminex gas could be used.

Additionally if production is not until 2017 what news could we expect from Aminex, with debt and no cash flow I would think that exploration of Ruvuma and Nyuni would be delayed. Without KN-1 Gas the company would appear to be in care and maintenance mode all the while the share
price and my investment would continue to devalue as investors sell out in the worry that Aminex will not deliver on project milestones.

I Look forward to your reply.

Best Regards
James Ashton


Their response:

James

I saw your email earlier and you have misunderstood the sentence. Booking reserves does not influence production.

In answer to your previous questions in order:

a. Yes, it is still expected that commissioning will take place in early April

b. Aminex has a very strong relationship with its debt providers which is evidenced through the fact that they have extended their debt a number of times without issue.


c. We stated in the announcement dated 25 June 15 that the money would be used to fund planning of further drilling. Norwell were appointed and the Company plans to drill at Ntorya this year.

d. Aminex has a very strong relationship with TPDC who controls this aspect which will be very helpful.

e. In every situation to date Aminex has worked out a situation with TPDC over the years. They have been in Tanzania for well over 10 years, and never lost a licence. They have an excellent working interest with TPDC which is vitally important when considering this.


Regards

Gordon

[1bonanza] 04/4/2016 15:40

The share price doesn't agree!!