Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[thecynical1] 12/11/2015 09:37

do you really think that if someone were to pull a fast one on these guys that anyone would actually care.......if they tried it with Shell....ok........then it would cause waves......but even the size of the oil company is not really important....look at the fun and games that Tullow have been involved in......and they are a giant compared to AEX.........and if they were to go to arbotration, when would they have a result......? right....years later....and in the meantime, the board would continue to take their fees and pension contributions while the company basically died off........jmo.

[bunbooster2] 12/11/2015 09:12

theunluckyone - it's not about the world court. It's about investment decisions by business. If Tanzania rips off Aminex I personally would not invest there again (and I am a major player) and I imagine companies spending billions wouldn't either. Too risky.

[gerryjames] 12/11/2015 08:53

You should write a letter Bun and N27 did Mr, Eng mention anything of the missing 40 grand I trusted him to invest wisely. I don't see a case for suing before any contracts are breeched. They have been assured of nothing, probably. And were really there for oil.
Also feeling a bit behind here, what's the hold up about, is it still the financial payment mechanism.

[theunluckyone] 12/11/2015 08:50

Trouble is Indonesia did just this very thing to Churchill Mining and because of the weakness of the World Court,to where the case was referred,the Indonesians continue to get away with it despite on the face of it having not a "leg to stand on" legally speaking !!!

[blackgold00] 12/11/2015 08:32

yes agree Bun, but it is over a hundred million

[warbaby43] 12/11/2015 07:49

They do indeed, c31161, the government and people of Tanzania do have gas while Aminex have licences to extract that gas conditional on certain obligations being fulfilled.

At present, it's not just the GSA that's anxiously awaited but news on the state of play of negotiations over the Ntorya Appraisal Licence extension and the explo drills on the larger Ruvuma PSA.

[c31161] 11/11/2015 18:13

But you can't get away from they fact they do have the gas

[clunes100] 11/11/2015 13:37

It is surely in the government's interest for security of supply and competition that they should have at least two suppliers in to the pipeline, so unless something is holding up the GSA about which we have not been informed, ergo the GSA should be signed asap?!

[skinwalker] 11/11/2015 13:33

Not looking good here guys :-(

[greyingsurfer] 11/11/2015 12:12

Hi ngms

In my opinion there is no demand currently for the AEX gas, Wentworth will be providing all that's required well into 2016 hence the reason for no GSA yet.

Well, while I don't agree with that analysis in full, I do agree that as long as the need for KN-1 gas is not immediate there may be little pressure on the other side to sign the GSA.

I am however, not convinced that there will not be need for the KN-1 gas this year, though it's possible that there won't be. But what is very clear is that Tanz gas demand is ramping up quickly, and there's a vast economic imperative to get as much gas power generation (and other industrial uses) online ASAP. TPDC and the government would be foolish to see AEX fall apart (with resultant impact on getting KN-1 gas, and next year or soon after, Ntorya gas flowing) for want of a signature on a GSA. You will argue that those would come on stream anyway, as they would, but there would almost certainly be delays involved, which as far as I can see it the last thing TPDC etc will be wanting in the next 18 months.

Peter

[larsson 2] 11/11/2015 12:04

I think its more : can Sunderland stay up and benefit from the huge television rights next season or AEX obtaining the GSA finally and reaping the rewards!!

[impvesta] 11/11/2015 11:36

And, as a follow up to post 54504 Neil Ritson (Solo Oil) on the same subject from 1 min 20 secondsish:

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/4259/solo-oil-s-ritson-eyes-gas-sales-deal-ahead-of-tanzania-election-4259.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[impvesta] 11/11/2015 11:11

For those doubting Tanzania's need for Aminex's gas this is what JB said on 25/9/15. Go to approx 2 mins 15 secs for the relevant discussion:

hxxp://www.directorstalk.com/jay-bhattacherjee-chief-executive-at-aminex-lonaex-says-the-companys-board-is-as-frustrated-by-the-delays/

[gerryjames] 11/11/2015 10:03

WINK, Winkworth trading update this am, central London a bit slow? No mention of Tanzania...

[blackgold00] 11/11/2015 09:40

ngms, "The Tanz authorities must absolutely love AEX for failure after failure, license breach after license breach."

"Therefor IMHO there is a risk that AEX are effectively finished as far as equity is concerned"

well ngms if you're right it would make JB the master of all porky pie telling.

in answer to a post by warbaby 54458

yes warbaby, I thought at the time he made those claims, that they were very significant, considering the (Ruvuma drilling obligations).

JB words were if I'm not mistaken, ("that its actually been requested by the Tanzinian gov to allow the partnership down in Ruvuma to expedite that program") i.e. Ntorya-1 recompletion and Ntorya-2 for early production.

also his comments next I thought interesting, "so we've kind of adjusted our self's to help and work with the Tanzanian Government".

from about 4.40 minutes in

[bunbooster2] 11/11/2015 09:21

Yeah, I suppose it might not pan put. If it does work out though the upside is very large so I guess it's just risk and reward.

[ngms27] 11/11/2015 09:15

I've been saying this for two years: How soon is now?

The Wentworth argument holds no sway with me as AEX could have had there GSA in place pending the payment guarantees like Wentworth did.

In my opinion there is no demand currently for the AEX gas, Wentworth will be providing all that's required well into 2016 hence the reason for no GSA yet.

If I am correct major dilution is on the way.

Then look at the assets, they are now in breach of license for not appraising NT-1. Surely that risks losing the acreage given the number of second chances they have already been given over the years? Also there was a clause whereby they would lose KN-1 equity:
The Addendum allows for the remaining obligations under the First Extension Period to be completed in the Second Extension Period, as previously announced by the company on 30 May 2013. The amended agreement requires four wells to be drilled by the end of 2016. In conjunction with the amended obligations to the Ruvuma PSA, the Company has granted TPDC (Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation) and the Government certain securities over Kiliwani North Development Licence on a sliding scale basis. As each of the wells is drilled the security reduces and when all four wells are drilled the Government and TPDC will no longer have any further security over the Kiliwani North Development Licence

The Tanz authorities must absolutely love AEX for failure after failure, license breach after license breach.

Therefor IMHO there is a risk that AEX are effectively finished as far as equity is concerned.