Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dan_the_epic] 10/11/2015 21:15

Good point Kev but NR is not a smart operator. He showed that by buying any stake before the GSA just to help old pals Aminex from not going bust. He is king of dilution and will do it again IMO.

[kevjones2] 10/11/2015 21:12

DFGO, that's pretty much my point. Solo have an option to buy the second lot. They don't have to.

[dfgo] 10/11/2015 17:37

KevJones2



Approval already agreed.

Solo has an option to acquire a further 6.5% interest in the field for $3.5 million within 30 days of the Gas Sales Agreement being signed.

Approval from the Tanzanian authorities for this second sale was obtained in conjunction with the first sale.

[kevjones2] 10/11/2015 16:35

Solo have not committed to buying the second lot:

"Solo holds an option to increase its interest in the Kiliwani North Development Licence by 6.5% to a total of 13% once the GSA is signed for a further payment of US$3.5 million to Aminex."

They have an option to do so. Let's hope they take that option.

[dan_the_epic] 10/11/2015 15:59

DFGO

Well I found what I was looking for. The production bonus is a stonking $5m straight into the TPDCs coffers so we're looking at $2.8m of Solos $3.5m going straight out the door.



What is absolutely obvious is that there is going to be a working capital squeeze, early 2016 and an even bigger squeeze if they want to do drilling in 2016.

[dan_the_epic] 10/11/2015 13:43

Yes you are correct, Wentworth was long before PA15. Blackgold you are also correct; its enshrined in law yet has not commenced and more worryingly, there has not been a date set for when it will commence.

I offer two questions:

1) If PA15 is not the problem, then what exactly is (plural)? This has been going on since late 2013. Don't just say delays as there categorically must be something causing the delays. Worst bit is that Bhattacherjee and Invisible Thompson know but are keeping it from shareholders. Last month officially the two year anniversary of the GSA "being in advanced stages"

Perhaps once PURA are brought in they will check over AEX for any squabbles before a GSA

2) How is Aminex going to pay the production bonus? How much is the production bonus?

[blackgold00] 10/11/2015 12:38

Dan, from Orca's Q2 report page 7



In June 2015 the Tanzania Parliament passed
The Petroleum Act, 2015, which legislation was passed into law by Presidential decree on 4 August 2015. The bill repeals earlier legislation, provides a regulatory frameworkover mid-stream and downstream gas activity and as well consolidate and put in place a single, effective and comprehensive legal framework for regulating the oil and gas industry in the country.
The bill also provides for the creation of an upstream regulator, the Petroleum
Upstream Regulatory (PURA). The mid and downstream petroleum as well as gas activities are proposed to be regulated by the current authority, the Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA)."

and from your link Clyde & Co. I think Dan that you might be grasping at straws here, notice Clyde state that the (PA 2015 has now been assented to by the President of Tanzania). Dan, as I understand it, this bill does not need to go back to parliament, it is now become law.

Update
"We prepared an energy briefing in July 2015 focused on The Petroleum Act 2015 Bill Supplement (the Bill) which was placed on the Parliament of Tanzania website on 19th June 2015. That energy briefing was prepared at a time when the Bill was still being debated by Parliament and our comments were subject to further revision of the Bill. PA 2015 has now been assented to by the President of Tanzania, although the commencement date has to yet be determined."

[kevjones2] 10/11/2015 12:27

Rossannan, I'm not sure either of the implications of this 2015 Act but Wentworth got their GSA in 2014 so the Act would not have applied. Not sure if any other GSAs were signed this year.

[dan_the_epic] 10/11/2015 11:32

Fair question. Worth reading the bill rossannan.

1. The bill introduces an "Oil and Gas Bureau" designed to increase transparency when it comes to Cabinet decisions. The president will want to get off to a good start on his transparency pledge so why try to push through a GSA through old legislation when it is obvious that for one reason or another, Aminex's gas is not as direly needed as suggested (or there would have been a bloody GSA over the past 7 years!)

2. New regulatory body. The Petroleum Upstream regulatory authority will be in charge of PSAs and contracts

3. New method of price calculation with an unproblematic (to Aminex) obligation to proportionally supply the Tanzanian market first

4. New royalty regime in place up to 12.5%, with signature bonuses and production bonuses (a bonus to be paid at the start of production). This is unpublished but directly impacts on production companies

5. It changes and improves the way that production permits are issued over the last system, which was clunky.

In summary, it makes very little sense to give Aminex a GSA under old rules with less favourable terms to the government. Can Aminex even afford a production bonus?

[dan_the_epic] 10/11/2015 11:00

I officially push my expected production start date back from Q1 2016 to Q2 2016. We have all missed something again

Unfortunately the delusional bulls have forgotten that the Tanzanian petroleum act 2015 is not yet in force. This slipped my mind too. This new act brings wide-ranging changes to the previous Petroleum Act 2008 and parts of the PEPA agreement including gas pricing methods to the NOC, TPDC.

This was put to parliament in June 2015, yet the commencement date has still not been determined and with Christmas fast approaching I now dont see this before the middle of Janaury at the earliest as the government still have not released supplementary vital documents.

A HUGE part of the document focuses on Zanzibar's autonomy, and with "no solution in sight" after the botched election ( I expect that end of Q1 for the petroleum bill to pass is the realistic earliest.

I have been right so far so go away haggis you fool as you are so blinded by this management team when you dont realise that MANAGEMENT AT MOST COMPANIES FREQUENTLY LIE.

[skinwalker] 10/11/2015 09:31

I very much doubt it Blackgold - anyway, no news is good news they say...

[tobytime73] 09/11/2015 12:56

Heads up

TPL 8.5p placing vs 5p share price. no brainer!

[vike1] 09/11/2015 12:56

Interesting to see the AfricaOil farmout today. Of course, they're a different company to us, but is still good to see majors making major investment back I the EA region. Has been a while!

[blackgold00] 09/11/2015 12:29

yes you're quite right warbaby, there's a lot of uncertainty with LNG forward planning at the moment, though sentiments can change quickly.

Anyway, should be the Q3 Interim Management Statement next week, last year it was on the 18th. its going to be very interesting to see what they have to say, especially if we have no definitive news by then. no doubt we will get thanked for our continued support and patience : )

[warbaby43] 09/11/2015 11:33

I put this Statoil Q&A up at the time in September last year and on the subject of LNG it's well worth a re-read, not least when the physical difficulties and the costs are being spelled out.

Throw in the gas market uncertainties, the fact that so many LNG projects are in front of Tanzania's and that Tanzania is Tanzania and 125th in the world league table for ease of doing business and it seems most unlikely that offshore Tanzania is going anywhere soon or even not so soon.

[blackgold00] 09/11/2015 11:16

welcome back Dan, yes being an Aminex mid to long term holder you have to learn to overcome boredom. how's your shorts, still got them on?