Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[pauliewonder] 24/7/2019 11:18

Not sure I agree with a maximum of 25p. If there are 6 interested parties then it would be dependent on what a bidder is willing to pay, but the more companies involved the better in my view. I do think that the £1 crowd are living in wonderland, but dont see why we cant be valued on current production, forward potential and opportunity costs for a firm like GTE.

[pauliewonder] 24/7/2019 10:51

So Kilik have hoovered up 510,095 shares at 17.89p yesterday

[3roach] 24/7/2019 10:35

Well said chopper h

[chopper harris1] 24/7/2019 10:28

Sharesure4,

I agree. They should just get on with their day to day business while this plays out but this BOD being like it is will take advantage of this situation to just continue to release any information as and when it suits them....if at all.

Surely the test results from Sol-1 must be known by ONGC by now and surely AMER as 30% stakeholders in that asset must have been informed of the data. So why have they not released that news to us as it must be regarded, either positively or negatively, as being price-sensitive?

This is one of the reasons, IMHO, as to why the share price sunk to the depths of 12p. That, plus the abject failure of the BOD to come out fighting in the face of RH selling and other share price manipulation, in a bid to reassure shareholders and keep the share price at a more realistic level, thereby preventing an outcome like the recent derisory offer for the company.

I often read on this thread how GC was not going to let this company go for under a £1 a share. That figure now appears laughable given recent events. I also recall reading on several occasions the anecdote of GC telling shareholders at an AGM that he didn't take any notice of the share price (or words to that effect). Well, I bet this extremely arrogant man now wishes that perhaps he should have kept more of an eye on the share price and had done some things very differently. Such as releasing news when it should have been released and not using the way the company communicated as a weapon in his apparent petty spat with a very disgruntled shareholder (RH).

If this does get taken out for less than 35/40p then we will have all suffered for GC's arrogance. AIMHO.

[ashkv] 24/7/2019 10:13

Amazing value waiting to be tapped in Amerisur -30p+ should be cheap as chips for an acquirer!!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)
Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share according to Stifel
Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 35p per published analysis prior to them suspending coverage as they are involved in deal!!!

[ashkv] 24/7/2019 10:13

Stifel Analysts think share price is minimum 37p - AND STIFEL IS ONE OF THE ADVISORS MANDATED FOR STRATEGIC REVIEW - SO HOPEFULLY THE CAN WORK THEIR DEAL MAKING MAGIC TO GET US APPROPRIATE VALUE :)

Steifel's last NAV breakdown table for AMER is there too - worth looking at


Continuous H2 2019 drilling programme in CPO-5: We carry the exploration &
appraisal upside at CPO-5 at 18p/shr risked in our 37p NAV (70p unrisked; Figure 1).
The attraction of the licence is: (i) moderate geological risk (75% success rate to date),
(ii) rapid discovery-to-monetisation timeline, a matter of days/weeks, and (iii) benign, lowcost
operating environment both in terms of capex, opex and oil exports.
• Appraisal up next, could add 20% to group production: As previously announced, the next well at CPO-5 will be appraisal of the Indico discovery, with a result expected in ~August (Indico-2). Prior wells have flowed 3-5 kb/d (gross); at the mid-point and net to AMER's 30% working interest, the contribution to group revenue of a success would therefore be around 20% of our estimate of underlying FY19 group production (5.9 kb/d).
• H2 2019 activity on the block could add ~50% to group reserves: The schedule beyond Indico-2 is yet to be determined, but success at the well might encourage further back-to-back drilling on the structure. Indico's upside is c.50M bbls (70 vs current 2P of 23), so, net to 30% working interest, adds of ~15M bbls would equate to ~50% of group reserves.
• Sol testing to complete first: Amerisur expects to wrap up testing of the Sol well in the next couple of weeks. As announced on June 17, the well found 27 feet of net pay, which is some way below the two other successes in the block (100 ft +). Nevertheless, the commercial threshold here is low, and we would expect the well to be put into commercial production even were it to achieve a rate of a few hundred barrels per day.
Production guide reiterated; we are top end: 2019E guidance of 5-6 kb/d looks achievable vs. June daily production 6.8 kb/d, despite a modest first quarter that saw 5M production average 5.3 kb/d. Current guidance excludes any exploration success.

[sharesure4] 24/7/2019 09:18

Why doesn’t the company just press on with drilling and providing results of any holes that haven’t yet been announced. All the speculation about what price the company is worth can take its time.

[davwal] 24/7/2019 09:17

Please don’t bring your bun fight over here.

[pauliewonder] 24/7/2019 08:57

Ace: I think the traders may be out and those happy to wait a little longer are in. I would expect that we will have an update of some form pretty soon, most likely by the end of next week but could be sooner. I am still very excited about the prospects here and so should everyone else be.

[pauliewonder] 24/7/2019 08:33

I think the minimum this will go for will be 20p to M&P but. That still offers around 18% upside. That is the floor in my view, and will come from the current formal sale process. However, I think that many will consider that a low ball valuation and the liklihood would be that a rival would bid for them at that point. There are a number of players who could gain synergies by taking out AMER and as such, the liklihood of 20p being the final offer is slim. Still maintain we will get 30p+ although I dont think anyone can know for sure. If the stars align correctly, we could get much more.

[aceuk] 24/7/2019 08:30

DOH, where's all the excitement gone?

[dan de lion] 24/7/2019 08:27

If M&P really want it they will improve their offer, unless they were just trying it on in search of a bargain.

[marioboss] 24/7/2019 08:12

M&P offered 17.0p. Amerisur rejected the offer saying "[offer] materially undervalued company and was not at a level that merited further consideration".

Any risks it could go below the offered 17.0p?

What's a good valuation in your opinion?

[xxnjr] 24/7/2019 07:55

M&P YES
but, as you imply martin,

Do we really have 6+ very large companies in the Q? Time will tell. AIUI Amerisur do not have to name the parties in the Q, unless the companies 'out' themselves as M&P did.

[martin1962] 24/7/2019 07:02

If we really have 6+ very large companies looking at us then true market value will come good and this may be more than just the sum of the parts. Hopefully we will find ourselves in a sabre rattling competition with the serious contenders willing to pay for full worth but not to be seen throwing too much at us. It may take a while but I think it will be worth the wait.

[fatgreek] 24/7/2019 00:26

So NOC Pertamina are a big boy (who own m&p) Now that means, NOC, ONGC, OXY, EX BP, Ecopetrol etc are all sniffing...Anyone else wanna join the party? Shell? BP? anyone?We're primed up and ready to be taken over at the right price, we don't mind which big boy takes us out, just make it a big boy share price

[xxnjr] 23/7/2019 23:55

Hadn't appreciated M&P are effectively Indonesian NOC Pertamina which has annual revenues of $58bn.

see P53 of

"In August 2016, for the first time Pertamina has successfully completed the acquisition process for 24.53% of shares in Establishment Maurel & Prom SA (M&P), a Frenchbased multinational oil and gas company listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (Euronext Paris). M&P has exploration and production assets in Africa, Europe and America. The acquisition of M&P’s shares has added to Pertamina’s investment portfolio of overseas assets, enlarging reserves for national energy security, and drives Pertamina’s upstream business development in the global arena.

In February 2017, Pertamina through its subsidiary, PT Pertamina International Exploration and Production (PIEP), completed the acquisition of Maurel et Prom (M&P), a French oil and gas company with share ownership of 72.65%."