Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[moneylender] 21/7/2019 21:31

Keep an eye on this section of web page in the future.

[kirkthrust] 21/7/2019 20:49

....done a fair bit of work here and think SOTP is c.32-33p based on:
16p Platanillo given the recent Gran Tierra deal on Putumayo etc
4p for CPO-5 share given Occidental recent trades and potential developments /jvs with Amerisur
6.5p for the actual producing assets at Indica and Mariposa
3p for the cash of nearly $50m
3p for the pipeline being worth 50 too..it cost them $20m but annual profit run rate is $4m EBITDA with a lot more capacity to be utilised.
A "conglomerate" discount is needed (but not 50%!!)unless the advisors can be cute and divi assets between ONGC, Gran Tierra and Occidental or really get the auction going..

[eddie_yates] 21/7/2019 20:36

OBA alone results in potential savings of $361,350,000 between now and when the current agreement expires in 2030 based on minimum agreed throughput

From Feb presentation - 100% owned OBA oil transfer line into Ecuador, reducing transport costs from $14/bbl to $3.90

9000 x 10$= $90,000/ day
$90,000 x 365= $32,850,000/ year
$32,850,000 x 11 years= $361,350,000!!!!!

[showme01] 21/7/2019 19:49

It can't be anything else but blue imo. 12 month high is 20.5p and that must be minimum bid. Looks like the 35-40p seems how most LTH value this and Toon at over 45p may well be right. Wish I had bought more Friday as I can see a good initial rise first thing tomorrow.

[juuunx2] 21/7/2019 19:48

Let's hope so tubs

[fatgreek] 21/7/2019 19:17

Here's looking forward to a BIG blue week

[lucyp00p] 21/7/2019 18:07

No, that was because we got extremely greedy

[burtond1] 21/7/2019 17:22

https://twitter.com/tmsreach/status/1152974213529161728?s=21Vote for a write up!!

[knackers] 21/7/2019 16:56

The hurdles one would now need to clear to get a comparable pipeline across this territory (and under the Put river) make the OBA a unique and highly desirable asset to any operator in Puts. It took time to complete and for good reason.

Just how undervalued this company remains is about to be evident, Mr Market has it horribly wrong. But have to say, as things stand, I find 40p+ sum of the parts a bit of a push (subject to what happens in the Gulf and GOO). I think 30p-35p more in the ballpark, but reckon the most likely outcome is just the sale of our CPO5 interest to ONGC. Of course, ONGC will need to cough up as everyone knows what's between Mariposa and the Indico trap. Sustained high pressure/light oil/excellent deliverability - and up-dip, at Indico, NO OWC!

NB If ONGC have tactically held back pressure/flow results from the ST test at SOL-1 they will now come under pressure to do so. Similarly if their offer is not acceptable then they will have little choice other than to crack on with the programme. Beggars can't be choosers after all - and again, this is NO FORCED SALE.

It may take a week or two, but reckon we're now going to move steadily up towards 25p, which I think is MUCH closer to base pre-offer, fair value.

[9tintin] 21/7/2019 16:56

With regard to the OBA being jointly owned I assume it therefore cannot be sold off separately or maybe it would depend on the 'arrangement' between the parties?

tintin

[9tintin] 21/7/2019 16:53

Thanks guys for the answers.

[xxnjr] 21/7/2019 15:47

wasn't that because the Ecuadorians rejected Amerisur's initial plan, deeming it too small, mandating a re-design with significantly higher capacity?

[lucyp00p] 21/7/2019 15:24

$17,000,000 and a shed load of time

[xxnjr] 21/7/2019 15:09

Not conversant with OBA matters myself. The 2016 Annual Report P65 says
[note my bold]

".....Within the net book value of Plant and Machinery are assets of $18m (2015: $7.7m) relating to the interconnector under river pipeline (‘OBA’) between Colombia and Ecuador. The OBA became operational in October 2016. The OBA connects PAD9s to the Group’s facilities at the Victor Hugo Ruales (VHR) station in Ecuador and onwards through the RODA pipeline. On completion of the pipeline project, ownership of the section of the pipeline totalling from the mid-river point to the VHR station was transferred to Petroamazonas AS*, owner of the VHR station and RODA pipeline.
The arrangement with Petroamazonas AS has been classified as a finance lease in accordance with IFRIC 4 and IAS 17 due the dependency on the Group and Petroamazonas to cooperate with each other in the operation of the pipeline. The pipeline would require either significant modification or cooperation of the Group to be used by any other external party and the portion of the pipeline owned by Petroamazonas is of no use without the portion owned by the Group and vis versa and effectively operates as one single pipeline despite separate legal ownership. It would either require a new connection to be made or for the Group to give up control/right of use of its portion for another party to use the portion legally owned by Petroamazonas.
The pipeline is being depreciated over the life of the lease arrangement of 15 years.
No finance lease liability is recognised on the basis that all payments relating to construction of the pipeline have already been made and the liability is therefore fully settled."
======================

Amerisur subsequently paid about $3.9m to upgrade Chiritza pumping station to 9000 bopd throughput. That station is in Ecuador. Amerisur recover the Chiritza costs through a lower tariff on up to 5000bopd, until the $3.9m is recovered.

*Petroamazonas is the Ecuadorian National Oil Company

[9tintin] 21/7/2019 14:36

Could someone please tell me what the OBA pipeline cost to build and is it listed separately on the balance sheet in terms of it's asset value?

Ta

tintin

[lucyp00p] 21/7/2019 14:26

Now that the board have crossed the Rubicon regarding a sale of all or part of the business, perhaps they no longer need to hang on to $50 million. The path is clear now to pay a "special dividend" to us long suffering mugs. I think the first £2,000 is tax free, so if you're reading this, Mr. Chairman, as soon as the Boris bounce takes $:£ down to parity, get your cheque book out.

[thetoonarmy2] 21/7/2019 14:16

Don't forget the cash amer has circa £45 mill now plus accruals owed at any onetime of circa £8/10 mill add that to all the valuations which is great but remember anyone buying this will have an opportunity cost value in back of minds I would reckon this will go 45p plus.

[broncowarrior] 21/7/2019 13:28

Would hope the purchaser raises some debt if they need to and pays us out in cash rather than getting some cash and some shares, or just shares.

[fadilz] 21/7/2019 10:19

taking xxnjr point re extra 93m, adds 6.5p to my previous valuation, so 20p wihtout Plat and CPO-5, and 78p using Amer's own valuation.

Let's see!

N95: OXY bought 50% of Put-8 for 19.1m as a separate and later transaction.

[11_percent] 21/7/2019 10:11

Lucyp00p
20 Jul '19 - 16:07 - 21421 of 21463
0 2 0
Mr Market hasn't got a clue I'm glad to say.

--------------

You could have a point there.

But, it would be nice if they did.

[n95] 21/7/2019 10:08

Thanks both, so am I right in thinking that Put8 was included in the oxy 50% deal at 112m.

[fsawatcher] 21/7/2019 09:50

ment cobbles

[fsawatcher] 21/7/2019 09:49

cash balance of $50m or poss $70m in few month

i fink this deal done before amer half year result come oot in 8 week time

it quik and easy to flog everyfink innit coz yous alreadies got partners there that want it

it not like they seekin buyers, they got em alreadies

it jus that buyers squabblle boblle tobble over the gobbles