Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[foiledagain] 19/6/2019 09:42

How I define the deal?

Excellent

Remember that stock market rules do not demand full disclosure where there is a provable commercially sensitive situation would definitely apply.

"Delay is permitted where public disclosure would prejudice a company’s ‘legitimate interests’. "

Dav. They would not have been allowed to RNS before a deal was concluded, as it was commercially sensitive and would signal to any opposition, allowing them to react.

We can criticise them for loads of stuff but this deal was carried out very well.

[responsible investor] 19/6/2019 09:25

This management seems totally incompetent at producing positive cash flow from its oil exploration and production. The company would do much better to sell off all its oil interests and concentrate on maximising the value of the OBA. I do not know how much could be realised from the sale of its direct oil interests - but maybe $ 50-100 million which, upon sale, could be paid out as dividends to shareholders - about 5-10p per share! If the interests are worth more, the payout could be increased.

The OBA, on the basis of transferring amounts of 5,000, 10,000, 30,000 and 60,000 brls per day and assuming a contribution of $8.00 per brl, will produce gross annual revenues of $13.2 million, $26.4 million, $79.2 million and $158.4 million respectively.

Based upon the company’s own figures for the capacity of the OBA (up to 50,000-75,000 brls per day) the upper revenue figures (30-60,000 brls per day) should be feasible within a reasonable time frame - 2-3 years?

Expenses to run the OBA, having taken into account the running costs of the crude transferred in the assumed $8.00 per brl contribution, would be relatively small - subject to the Directors’ costs.

The OBA should be valued, conservatively, on a pe of 3-5 times. And cash flow would be strong such that annual dividends could be paid of not less than 10p per share within two years - assuming a 2X cover.

You can do the figures with Amerisur having a current market value of $190 million but the company needs to change direction.

[foiledagain] 19/6/2019 08:17

That's ridiculous

No money was lent to Oxy at all. Only Amerisur could use the right of first refusal to take up the block that otherwise GTE would have snapped up.

Oxy could do nothing about that except bid a whole lot more for the block which would have quite possibly jeopardised their previous agreement with Amerisur which probably already had PUT 8 as part of the deal.

Far better then than Amerisur watch GTE then step in at last minute with right of first refusal.

I do expect it was part of the original scheme, but no way could that be announced in RNS as it would compromise the whole deal.

Now it has a heavyweight partner, mitigates risk and a potential buyer of the company.

Well executed plan in my opinion

[kaos3] 19/6/2019 07:43

my Q about cash was relevant. 19 mil was "lent" for oxy without saying so.

what else?

if anything

sol is a very good CPO5 confirmation of oil pockets, bays, horns at different depth levels mixing and coming from different kitchens.

speed drilling is important so WE start draining first

[fsawatcher] 19/6/2019 07:18

i shorten gte coz they got problama in putymayo region

amer aint gonna drill nuffink in putmayo with farmin blockaides day of week

[marnewton] 19/6/2019 07:07

Not enough strength to buy yesterday.

Still only holding one tranche.

M

[tonyrelaxes] 18/6/2019 22:06

I've not been paying attention too much but I thought we were buying the 3rd party oil at the delivery point (our Colombia storage depot, presumably).

Therefore the Ecuador figures would be simply what came through the other end of the OBA (our production plus any 3rd party purchases).

Thus our own production reports will be different, at least from when we start(started?) "blending and sending".

[treasure] 18/6/2019 18:14

Also, I think it should have been clarified by Amer how and when they are going to update the market on the third party oil as I think all they have said re production was that it would be reported quarterly but of course this is not production oil.

[treasure] 18/6/2019 18:12

Foiled again, I wondered that initially but if Amer account for let's say 200 barrels a day going through the OBA how would the other company account for it on the report we see. Let's say Amerisur are company A and company B produces 1000 barrels a day but sell it to Amer and amer put it down the OBA pipe. It would look like company B had no production that day and Amerisur whether it be production or what goes down the pipe show as 1000 more. The shareholders/stakeholders in company B would not be happy as they can't see what their company is producing. Hope that makes sense but other than being a data anaylst I can't see how else it could work other than it reported separately.

[fsawatcher] 18/6/2019 17:18

they doin 6.8k not 7k

[dayway123] 18/6/2019 16:47

Hi Lucy. Producing 7kb/d with cash reserves, no debt, Oxy deal 98mil, put8 50% partners 19mil, 2nd indico appraisal well soon will increase bpd and reserves, Sol-1 tests to come. Oxy are there for a reason and have the confidence to invest. The balance will eventually turn and the 12p price tag will be past tense. Maybe al101 can do some number crunching for us when we get to 10kb/d which I can see coming by years end. I will be increasing my holding.

[tonyrelaxes] 18/6/2019 16:32

Well, I hope Bas enjoyed himself even if it didn't rub off here for once!

[lucyp00p] 18/6/2019 14:29

This share price is insane. Are all Oilers trading down or just this one? I am tempted to add to my million plus holding but even the old averaging down argument is getting old as what seemed a bargain last month now just looks like the new reality. Recent positive developments have done nothing for us. Perhaps investors have found new places to put their cash and no longer trust any company to do right by them.

[fsawatcher] 18/6/2019 10:22

oil bought in colombia but sold in ecquador innit

that wot 3rd party is

so it aint gonna be export

it gonna be bought in from ecqadors

so it on them numbers them side

them them ethem them tehm tem whooo whoo cardboard trees

[foiledagain] 18/6/2019 08:47

treasure. If the oil is bought by Amerisur and flows through the OBA I suspect it would just count as production as its a pipeline rather than a government audit on oil production. production then would be what goes through the pipeline from each company, with Amerisur's being their oil plus any bought in.

[treasure] 18/6/2019 08:35

Ski, re the OBA question. I would think that it is already flowing through the OBA. Do you look at the OBA production numbers website. My take is that the website is a production website and therefore if the third party oil was included in that figure then the number would be double counted so they must account for it in another way is my view.

[knackers] 18/6/2019 08:34

Sj- I would think around 4-5 weeks to complete the sidetrack on P22 give or take. Think it’s a complete re-drill as the old well was compromised and unproductive as a result(?)

Should see another 500bopd min added to production on completion.

Indico appraisal, if indeed to spud from the existing pad, should do so within the next couple of weeks I’d have thought - unless more time needed to enhance holding/handling infrastructure at the wellhead.
I would have thought that now in place so may not be the production hit as seen during Calao drill.

[bigbas] 18/6/2019 08:28

well here is another pointer - I shall be gardening today - between the showers !!!!