Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 01/2/2019 12:57

11%


The added value on OXY has a simple base calculation of $93.25m converted to £s and divided by shares in issue bto give value per share.

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Ok....I get nearer 6p...……...and the rise was 10p....so an over shoot of 4p...….which it is now coming back to...

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No, 11%! It was obvious that you need to add that 6p to the 5p of Indico, giving 11p and hence undershoot at 20p.

Are you a bot?

[treasure] 01/2/2019 12:54

11-percent

It's always reassuring when a poster like yourselves appear. It sends out the clearest of messages. Time to buy boys and girls. Cheers, will top up later.

[charlieeee] 01/2/2019 12:52

Lucy

There are many different ways of looking at the $93.25 million.

The simplest, is that we were going to spend that sort of money out of our own cash balance and therefore such sums as we are generating from elsewhere can now stay in the coffers: that is the most pessimistic view and assumes that at the end of the seismic and drilling, that we have found nothing.

It could also be seen as freeing up that investment money up which could be used elsewhere (such as allowing the CPO-5 positive cash flow generated to be wholly reinvested in that block).

The optimistic approach is to assume that OXY have sufficient Colombian experience and will be making a good investment, but that seems too speculative at this point in time.

And so on: I am sure that as a CA (or FCA), you will acknowledge it has a value, even if it different from the suggestions above?

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 12:37

davwal
1 Feb '19 - 11:36 - 16809 of 16812
0 2 0
They also needed storage after the pipe was constructed because they could be contractually limited to shipping only their previous guaranteed minimum 5k bopd. They anticipated producing significantly more locally, and briefly did. The storage was used as a buffer if required until days occurred when they could transport more.

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davwal,

Thanks for the post.

When you say "contractually limited"...…..I assume you mean by the Ministry of Mines and Energy.


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This from the Q&A.

The Company is awaiting the approval of the Ministry of Mines and Energy in order to begin purchase and shipping of third party crude via OBA. That approval is expected in H1 2019.

I can see why the Gov don't want the oil going out of their corrupt system......into someone else's corrupt system.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 12:32

Lucyp00p
1 Feb '19 - 12:17 - 16810 of 16811
0 0 1
Oh I see the logic now. We are getting $93.5mm in return for nothing at all, and of course it's all flowing directly into the coffers, hence the increase in valuation.

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Not only that...……;……..there is a big concern here about these fields now being 50/50...…...not a good situation...……..no clear owner.

AMER are meant to be Operator, but OXY are putting up the money for the seismic and the drilling. I am making the assumption here that AMER will have the contract for the seismic and do all the organisation as the Operator....then bill QXY for the spend. Same for the drilling, which is important.


If OXY are running the seismic and the drilling...…...AMER are basically a small department in the OXY organisation.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 12:20

charlieeee


The added value on OXY has a simple base calculation of $93.25m converted to £s and divided by shares in issue bto give value per share.

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Ok....I get nearer 6p...……...and the rise was 10p....so an over shoot of 4p...….which it is now coming back to...


TGG has a point.
The traders would have jumped in on the farm-in news, and then sold...

[lucyp00p] 01/2/2019 12:17

Oh I see the logic now. We are getting $93.5mm in return for nothing at all, and of course it's all flowing directly into the coffers, hence the increase in valuation. If only life was as simple as some of the great minds at work here we'd be RICH!

[davwal] 01/2/2019 11:36

They also needed storage after the pipe was constructed because they could be contractually limited to shipping only their previous guaranteed minimum 5k bopd. They anticipated producing significantly more locally, and briefly did. The storage was used as a buffer if required until days occurred when they could transport more.

[charlieeee] 01/2/2019 11:34

They are not pumps, 11%: they are real increases in value based on fundamentals, how a share price should work when the market is not disconnected from reality.

The combined OXY and Indico should have seen this over 20p.

The added value on OXY has a simple base calculation of $93.25m converted to £s and divided by shares in issue bto give value per share.

Indico alone added 5p per share (on a conservative basis) and that did not take into account any increase in overall confidence in the area.

We are hunting elephant wells and each can change fundamentals significantly.

Roll on that second rig!

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/2/2019 11:31

gersemi
1 Feb '19 - 11:14 - 16801 of 16806
0 0 0
It's got nothing to do with traders.

...Plenty of folk piled in on the news....wonder how many are still around....& of course, volume has fallen away, so the effect of a seller or two is amplified.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 11:25

The company has cosiderable on field storage capacity as can be seen from the inventory at some year ends, notably 2015: go and look. Since then, storage capacity has been increased.

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Mmmmm…………....ok, can see that now...…….they needed the storage before the pipeline was built.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 11:23

gersemi,


At risk of looking stupid....who is the elephant/seller.....cheers.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 11:21

gersemi
1 Feb '19 - 11:14 - 16801 of 16802
0 0 0
It's got nothing to do with traders. There's a concerted seller on the book and that's a fact. If the seller is who we think it is at least we know the selling is not related to the company's fundamental. I'm happy with that. Clear the seller and when the news arrives this will rally hard.

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Agreed, don't think it is traders.

A quick look at the share price graph shows the rise (pump?) after the farm-in in Nov...…..then a bit of a retrace...for the next pump.

[gersemi] 01/2/2019 11:19

150k buy at 16.90 and the price never even flickered.

1 v 3

all is well except the elephant in the room

keep the faith

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 11:15

Just started having a look at this company.


I liked this from the November Farm-Out Presentation.

"The $93.25m farm-in for 50% implies a gross valuation of these four blocks of $187m"


With a MC of £205m ($266m).....we get the rest of the company for $79m.....and $49m in cash (Sept interims).

[gersemi] 01/2/2019 11:14

It's got nothing to do with traders. There's a concerted seller on the book and that's a fact. If the seller is who we think it is at least we know the selling is not related to the company's fundamental. I'm happy with that. Clear the seller and when the news arrives this will rally hard

all IMHO of course

[swerves1] 01/2/2019 11:10

An RNS for the Calao-1 spudding to land on Monday morning? Would be a nice start to the week!

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/2/2019 11:03

Too many traders in this stock.

[charlieeee] 01/2/2019 11:03

They refine and sell it in country for domestic consumption

Oil refineries in Colombia

Table 3: Colombia's Petroleum Refineries

Refinery Location Capacity
(Departamento)
(b/d)
Barrancabermeja Santander 205,000
Cartagena Bolivar 75,000
Empresa Colombiana
de Petroleos (Apiay)Meta 2,250
Tibu Norte de Santander 1,800
Orito Putumayo 1,800
Total 285,850

The company has cosiderable on field storage capacity as can be seen from the inventory at some year ends, notably 2015: go and look. Since then, storage capacity has been increased.

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 11:01

dav,

Ok, cheers.

So, ok, the tankers are believable.

[tsmith2] 01/2/2019 10:57

Would expect news Monday/Tuesday

[davwal] 01/2/2019 10:47

There are five refineries in Colombia apparently. I’m sure government officials are as honest as the day is short....

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 10:30

davwal
1 Feb '19 - 10:24 - 16791 of 16792
0 0 0
The Colombian government is trucking it’s load of ‘free’ oil internally for domestic consumption, not export to the wider world. Amer would have to truck bloody miles to reach an outlet to the wider world, as they used to at great expense.

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daval,


So you know where I am coming from, I assume the Gov are corrupt.

Before the Gov oil can be consumed, it will need to be refined. Is there a refinery in the Country.


Why does the Gov not put their oil down the pipeline and sell, for cash...…(I know, they don't want the cash to be visible).

[11_percent] 01/2/2019 10:26

kaos3
1 Feb '19 - 06:42 - 16786 of 16790
0 1 0
I was saying that they should start producing asap from Platanillo and if OBA is not ready they could truck for a few months. As the wells will have some issues at the beginning anyway.

It turns out that they have huge storing capacity (still do not know how much exactly) at the premises and that the government is doing just that - trucking. And OBA is ready and production is falling.

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This is a good point.

I find highly unusual that they are storing oil on-site (wellhead??).
I very much doubt that there is large storage capacity at the wellhead, it does not make any sense.....have been in the oil industry for over 35 years and never heard of anything like this.


I can only assume that they are pumping the production down the pipeline, and under reporting it.

Or, its going out by road tanker.


Anyway, you are right about pipeline throughput, very strange.

[davwal] 01/2/2019 10:24

The Colombian government is trucking it’s load of ‘free’ oil internally for domestic consumption, not export to the wider world. Amer would have to truck bloody miles to reach an outlet to the wider world, as they used to at great expense.