Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 12/9/2018 07:51

I small shareholder am supposed to be looking at the share price and management deliberate underperformance due to 2 grand egos. one of which I co-employ.

natural reaction would be to sack him and sue him for deliberate harm doing on my account

ah - good old times - which vould have not been there any way

PS - what if they start performing just in time of a market collapse and lower POO ??? and I will be told - due to RH situation it happened so - we lost few years of superb opportunities. We deliberately did not want to invest in superb value called amer shares at 14p (buyback). criminal?

grhhhhh

[sji] 12/9/2018 05:58

FA. All that you have said regarding how the City works in this situation might be true but that does not disprove the fact that share buybacks will support the share price of a company and will ultimately result in a rise in its share price. The example you brought as proof of your theory that the Amerisur share price drifted over the last months even when some institutions took RH's shares is not good. The Amerisur share price has drifted in recent months due to several reasons other than RH's continuous selling. Just to mention a couple of other reasons, Amerisur finished last year producing 7,000 bpd and promised an increase in 2018. On the contrary, the company never produced that much in a single month in the last 8 months! Secondly, the company promised 14 fully-funded well drillings for 2018 which have not materialized and will not materialize now. Hopefully, they will drill at least half of the promised number this year and get some good results. In the last 8 months, Amerisur produced some 1.3 million barrels and we have not heard yet of any increase in reserves. That is a worry which is depressing the share price. Hopefully, in the next couple of weeks, we shall get news of some new reserves which will definitely help the share price. But the rise in the share price with forthcoming good news flow from the company will be hindered if RH continues to sell his shares and there is not enough demand for it. As RH has quite a large number of shares to dispose (for his own reasons), the demand from the City is unlikely to be enough to soak them up all in the short-term. So, having a lot of cash in hand at the moment, the company might use it to help us small shareholders and buy some of the excess supply of shares from the market. In my opinion, at this point, share buybacks would be better than giving us an interim dividend!

[foiledagain] 12/9/2018 04:21

Sji. Sorry but it does not work in the way you suggest at all and history here demonstrates that.

Your theory is flawed simply because the City know of RH disposals and an adjust any transactions accordingly.

This idea of such a structured market, it just does not work in the way you hope. It is AIM. It might be a textbook trading idea, but its not real life.

It misses out that prices here have not gone up even when one institution soaked up some of RH's shares, because its not the disposal alone, it is the manner of the disposal allied to the fact that others have the information on exactly what RH's holding is, and can access this information on a day to day basis, can effect their own disposals, derivative trades and advise their own investors to act accordingly that negates a buy back benefit in those situations, because allied to RH'S disposal you then have the City holding back on any purchases. Why would they purchase in that situation?

If you just look at the price of Amerisur over the last 18 months, that alone disproves your comments, as even when an institution took millions of shares out of the market....the price carried on decreasing, because in the main there is never a level playing field so theory and actual are very far apart.

With the pernicious drip drip of sales where even 100,000 shares disparity in a day can affect both sentiment and price.

[lucyp00p] 11/9/2018 22:13

he's doing a better job than you think, and no way anybody on this board has even a fraction of the votes to unseat him

[moneylender] 11/9/2018 21:11

Ecuador is getting closer

READ ALSO The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources not Renewable presented this September 11, 2018 the twelfth oil round Intracampos. The event was held in Quito. In this meeting, eight oil blocks located in the Ecuadorian Amazon were exposed to investors. These are the Perico, Iguana, Charapa, Chanangue, Espejo, Araza Este, Pañayacu Norte, and Sahino areas. These blocks will be tendered under the modality of participation contracts. This will allow State and private firms to have a variable participation, depending on the production of crude oil and the price of oil in the international market

[laptop15] 11/9/2018 19:16

OIL VERY STRONG TODAY

[3roach] 11/9/2018 19:08

I'm more than ready to sell some more expensive ones....

[thechurch333] 11/9/2018 18:42

For one, I'm very thankful to RH for selling me so many cheap shares...

[3roach] 11/9/2018 18:20

With all his £££;£££ can't RH find a new hobby?

[sji] 11/9/2018 18:17

Sorry FA but it does not work that way. Suppose I want to buy shares in Amerisur. I go to the market and there is supply coming from RH and other people. If the supply is greater than the demand, the share price falls. If the company decides to do a share buyback from the open market, irrespective from where the shares come, the supply in the open market will decrease. If RH refuses to let his shares go in the share buyback, there is shortage in the open market and the share buyback forces the price up. Ultimately, other people will sell their shares to the company in the share buyback but the price has risen. When the share buyback has finished and I want to buy shares on the open market, only RH is now selling since other people has sold their shares to the company for the buyback. So, the supply is now less whereas the price is higher since the company had to offer a higher price to do the share buyback. RH's supply of shares will depress the price when he starts selling again but the price would now be much higher than the current price. To get the price back where it is now, RH would have to flood the market with his shares. If he does that, his shares will finish much earlier than they would last if there is no share buyback. So, any action from the company that results in less supply of shares being on the market will ultimately result in a higher price.

[sharesure4] 11/9/2018 18:13

On the assumption that the target of any RH annoyance is the Chairman, a much cheaper option would be to vote GC off the Board on his next renewal; from memory that is around May 2019. That’s not that far away in the context of how long we have suffered the effects of any spat they may have with each other. As many on here know, I am not a fan of GC either - I wasn’t when he was going through the appointment process and at no time have I ever needed to revise that opinion. I hope plenty of other shareholders feel the same way, and collectively we can vote him into retirement.

[foiledagain] 11/9/2018 17:59

A share buy back might work providing its RH's shares that are bought back. Otherwise it means little as RH can still drip drip into a market which has a pernicious affect over a long period of time distorting the market which would occur even after a buy back. If as some suggest RH has refused to sell to the BoD in the past then why would he do that now.

Its rather like how any good news has been absorbed and negated and where imo that questions whether good news has been sought with quite the concentration some might expect.

[thegreatgeraldo] 11/9/2018 16:53

Had a quick look at the first 6 months production ahead of figures..... around 1.07mmbbls @ $60+/bbl this year?

[sji] 11/9/2018 16:07

Share price deceases for several other reasons besides share selling. But share selling will definitely not help the share price to rise. On the other hand, price for any item is determined by demand and supply of the item. If the supply is reduced, the price will rise. How did OPEC raised the price of oil in the last few months - simply by reducing its supply in the market. Share buybacks do just that - they reduce the supply of shares in the market. Something scarce will rise in price. This will happen provided that the news flow comes good in the interims and drilling.

[aceuk] 11/9/2018 15:53

Lloyds Banking Group just spent £1 billion on a buy-back during which time the price fell more than 10% - the case for buy-backs is ….

[sji] 11/9/2018 15:49

Share buybacks reduce the amount of shares in circulation. So, even if Rex starts to sell his holding again once the share buyback is ready, the price will not go back where it started. If the value of the company increases due to good news flow, when divided by a lesser number of shares, the price per share will be higher. Market makers know that Rex has a chunk of shares (c. 34 m) that he is ready to offload as soon as there is a small increase in price. If market makers know that there is another buyer (the company) that is ready to swallow his shares, they will be more ready to raise the share price. At the moment, once some consistent buying appears, market makers raise substantially the offer price but not the bid price (for obvious reasons). This causes the buying to immediately dry out as the spread widens substantially. As soon as the bid price is raised a bit, there is substantially selling and the share prices falls again. Share buybacks will definitely improve this situation and the share price may settle at a higher level, say 20-22p.

All imho

[moneylender] 11/9/2018 15:44

FA but RH sells dont affect the share price, you have been told that!!!!!! lol

[foiledagain] 11/9/2018 15:37

Don't know about that Mariposa-1 wasn't rubbish news....but it failed to do much for share price for reasons that are now boring.

[jotoha2] 11/9/2018 15:26

Shares are bought and sold all the time , the present value reflects where we are at the moment, positive news will move it forward , the news in the last 18 months has been rubbish , hence the current share price

[gemlotte55] 11/9/2018 15:25

Shall we have a whip round

[lucyp00p] 11/9/2018 15:00

share buy backs would benefit everybody, including, you guessed it, RH, which is why it won't happen. Rex will simply wait a while longer and sell down again. Also, if the share buy backs clawed the old options into profit wouldn't we all be delighted when they were cashed in, dropping the price once again.

[juuunx2] 11/9/2018 14:36

Well I thought this may have had a bit of a run towards interims and spud result etc but relatively low volume still. I never will be a fortune teller that's for sure :-)

[kaos3] 11/9/2018 12:54

BOD made an offer to RH to buy his shares (as a proxy???). they could have bought it on the market if there is a will. makes no sense to me.

if there will be some operational results improvements I have no doubt that there will be someone buying in a big way - as it makes logic again

those RH stories make sense only if BOD provides no vale to back SP

if there is clear value RH becomes irrelevant

all imho