Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[investorgirl] 24/7/2018 14:16

Important bounce here, hopefully the recent dip was a bear trap. interesting for a recovery over the next few weeks.

[foiledagain] 24/7/2018 14:12

What I'm waiting for is the RNS from RH.

"The real problem". I'm not so sure about that if history is anything to go by (Alea), and where if new wells hit oil, they may be doing so at the weakest point in RH's selling after he has sold so many for so little, so reason to be optimistic.

Happy to hold and add

[charlieeee] 24/7/2018 14:06

FA

No point going over the old argument: that is so 2017.

In 2018, the market has been updated as RH crosses the 5% and 4% thresh holds and, no doubt there will be a notification when he drops through the final notifiable thresh hold of 3%.

Whilst it is the shareholder who has the notification obligation, the company can be forced to "play ball" by the argument that it is a matter which is material to the market and therefore must be disclosed by RNS (as well as the periodic AIM rule 26 (which they have done diligently throughout, but most shareholders don't bother to look).

The residual holding could be snapped up by a single institutional buyer (it can be perceived as an opportunity as well as an albatross), but there is no appetite as JW continues to promise, but not deliver.

The real problem is that the company wants to deliver, hence all the promises, but fails to do so.

What is happening here (there are indications in some of the asides) is that JW is under pressure from GC (and possibly the rest of the board) and instead of telling the truth, he tells them what they want to hear and hence the gulf between promise and performance.

By the looks of it, despite the trillions of tenders, CPO-5 has inched ahead of Pintadillo, with completed civil works: spudding of that would be good news, even though it is not core business for Amer.

[tsmith2] 24/7/2018 11:54

does anyone take Malcy seriously?He jumps pumps away..

[foiledagain] 24/7/2018 11:34

Charlieee. A few corrections to your well argued post.

There is no breach of rules by RH if it was a single transaction yet to be settled.

The facts re RH are not now in the public domain. Some facts are in the public domain when Amerisur let us know via registrar and I don't see it could be described as timeously under the circumstances.

Other facts are available to virtually all companies and the City on a daily basis.

Continually dwelling on RH disposals is as relevant as commenting on the lack of drilling? It is a fundamental that you can bet your last dollar every City firm considers before either recommending a share, or offloading a share.

In any market there is buying and selling and it is not necessarily correct that good news results in more buys than sells, as often holders in any good news, especially short term holders may sell into that news which is why more often than not any good news elsewhere sees a jump in the share price that often subsides as sellers are tempted out, whether it be retail or RH's iceberg waiting in the wings.

What it does show is that on the few occasions there has been good news, its not really done much as the elephant in the room is still there whether people want to believe it or not.

The assumption therefore that in good news period RH's holding diminishes quicker, is not borne out by any factual information? Such good news also brings out sellers as well as buyers and sellers who may also know the extent of any deal by RH that remains to be settled.

This will change and every day brings it closer, and the City and other funds know that. Its a game of patience still.

Why would they be so keen to increase potential of OBA. Interesting too that all these delays, would indicate by the time they really take effect RH's holding may be of no consequence, and whatever remains of his transaction, and I don't know, could be snapped up in one go, or even bought back by the company and quite possibly before the fruit of any new drilling campaigns arrive.

[charlieeee] 24/7/2018 11:15

Boris

There are two camps here and I belong in the camp that attributes the current share price to operational failure: success would provide the volume and value to absorb RH's holding.

Whilst it was clearly in breach of rules set up to create a transparent market, RH offloaded the first third of his shares without notification up until mid 2016 and the company connived: obviously the company knew, because (despite all the hot air to the contrary), the company registrar is simply outsourcing of the company secretary's job.

Subsequent to the very belated outcry in early 2017 (and continuing thereafter) the company have not dared to connive and so we have had the company updates through the threshholds.

The facts re RH are now in the public domain timeously and each of us is free to extrapolate the effect of that level of disposal on the share price

My statement, that continually dwelling on RH disposals can only be damaging, is hardly contentious.

Equally, how can anyone not see that in good news periods, RH's holding diminishes far more rapidly.

As for anyone suggesting that deviating the rig from the long promised exploration campaign, when it has been sitting idle for all of 2018 to date, is good news, they need to be sectioned.

Foss should resign: they already knew that a poor 2017 was going to be a worse 2018: he needed to make the dog jump through the hoop before dishing out any treats.

[davwal] 24/7/2018 10:40

Thanks ML.
Ecuadorian jam tomorrow - I'll take it!

[moneylender] 24/7/2018 10:23

davwal this is what GC says about Ecuador

'Amerisur is also looking at potentially acquiring locations in Ecuador, which neighbours the company’s fields in Putumayo province.
Clarke said: “We’ve been looking very closely at Ecuador. It’s opened up for foreign investment in the oil industry, having had a period of there not being a great deal.
“We’ve been in lengthy negotiations with the government over where we could operate, and we very much hope we can reach some agreements this year in Ecuador, which is a country with a great deal of untapped oil resources.”

[davwal] 24/7/2018 10:18

There is still the distinct possibility of an Amerisur foothold being taken in Ecuador now the country is proactively seeking inward investment to expand its production volumes, and has changed its contract format to encourage same.
GC didn't go there for nothing, and if they do get a block or two, that could be announced this year.

[moneylender] 24/7/2018 10:01

Malcy's view.

Amerisur Resources
An extra operational update from AMER this morning who have stated that Platanillo-22 now needs a workover in order to recover production capacity in ‘this important well’. This should permanently and cheaply resolve the production decline. Logs are now being run to check various parameters such as cement integrity.

Elsewhere all is good, all three high profile exploration wells are on target to spud this quarter which should provide the impetus for the shares which have inexplicably marked time recently. In Ecuador the news is also good, the Chiritza re-pumping station project is going well, tie in to the RODA line is expected shortly when increased transport minimum capacity grows to 9,000 b/d.

[laptop15] 24/7/2018 09:39

Looks like we have a large buyer in the background:))

[boris cobaka] 24/7/2018 09:01

charliee

'What causes far more damage is the perception of the problem and that is continually emphasized by those using it to their own advantage.'

Know what causes the damage is RH offloading. That is the catalyst for the damage to sentiment. And peeps should know that situation exists. The more the better. If you're in it for the long term it shouldn't matter but if peeps don't buy and it forces RH to expedite the process then all to the good imo.

The gradual drip-feed of his disposal into the market continues to suppress the share price and the longer it takes the greater the impact on sentiment.

I would be very surprised if there isn't a final clearout by RH when he feels the remainder needs to just dumped to finish the job. That will likely turn out to be the 'bloodbath' phase and the share price briefly sub 10p imo.

[moneylender] 24/7/2018 08:31

4 weaks ago peak production was 5400bopd, less CPO and plat 22 means plat is now producing circa 4000 bopd!!

Time for heads to roll, especially as they manufactured the eoy 7k so they got their bonuses, thats close to fraud in my book!

[fadilz] 24/7/2018 08:29

rollthedice: Egg on face and wrong way round. It was in the notes to editors in April. Not there now. As you were. I predict 4700- July figures. Just hope for drilling success, and restoration of something like 800 bopd from plat-22 in Aug/Sep.

[acv74] 24/7/2018 08:29

I can't see reference to 6500 either, where is this?

[rollthedice] 24/7/2018 08:22

I can't see any reference to 6500 bopd in notes to editor?

Disappointing overreaction to proactive workover action on P-22 well. Drilling x3 to commence this quarter.

[fadilz] 24/7/2018 08:22

one in plat, ML. Extra rigs in CPO-5, and PUT-8.

[moneylender] 24/7/2018 08:20

Next week is the start of the eighth month of 2018. We have zero wells spudded out of 16, with how many rigs at our disposal, one is it???

Shambles, and they reward themselves with success!

[fadilz] 24/7/2018 08:12

Reading the RNS this morning, I was mentally deducting Plat-22 output of about 400 bopd from the monthly production figures, giving about 4700, which would be the lowest since Aug last year. The cynic in me thought they were preparing us for a further drop in production in the July figures.

But then... I saw this addition to the notes to editors: 'Amerisur is currently producing approximately 6,500 bopd' This was not in the 5th of July RNS, so must be deliberate.

If the July production figures bear this out, then with three wells over over the next couple of months, and rising production, it must be north from here, Shirley.

btw, for those who remember my NPV model, which held good as a predictor of price until Aug last year - If I reverse engineer it with June production figures I can match the current share price by assuming resources of around 6m.

I have not given up on the model, and one way to explain the current malaise is to say that the market is downgrading their resources - perhaps fair in the light of declining production.

In any case, drilling success, and increasing production should see a significant re-rating.

[foiledagain] 24/7/2018 08:09

Until/unless someone snaps up the outstanding shares, whether Amerisur or others, whereby then we will see then if news miraculously gets brighter.

[moneylender] 24/7/2018 08:06

Going sub 14p today, where will support kick in

[broncowarrior] 24/7/2018 07:55

So much potential for uplift if they can get even 2 out of 4 of these right.