Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[fatgreek] 15/10/2019 20:07

The perfect bidding war paradores

[moneylender] 15/10/2019 19:53

My calculator isnt big enough to multiply it by 20 or 30 years.
Its frigging big numbers and all for 25p yer'avin a laf!

£1 by Xmas

[paradores] 15/10/2019 18:54

Well we're just starting to get warmed-up - 100%, both OXY and ONGC want their respective 'bits' of Amerisur. That'll put an entry level "low 20s" price on things but key to any sale premium (into the 30s...and poss beyond) is, who else has joined the party(?) and who's prepared to make an all-share offer(?)

Most likely ONGC will be out-manoeuvred, finding themselves once again frustrated without that 100% control and interest in CPO5 they oh-so-obviously crave. The last thing they were gonna do was appraise Indico! Pah!

OXY cierto want their pipeline, they want those on-trend Put blocks to the east and they're better able to handle the more militant indigenous in a couple of pockets, who have form (aka: cash-for-coca and access) ;o)

Ahora es muy interestante

[eddie_yates] 15/10/2019 18:17

sacrificial anode!!

[fatgreek] 15/10/2019 18:09

I'm sure with maintenance they can keep it going....change a bit of pipe in years to come here or there.....Thames water have pipes if one bit goes they don't change the whole thing so I think it has a very long term value with the right up keep.The most important thing was getting both countries to agree to it which is major....If a big boy is buying us which it will have to be, they'll also want to max out the capacity to its limit....The OBA is a business in itself....

[tyler durden1] 15/10/2019 17:33

Oil pipeline normally expected to last 20-30 years. Some in the USA are over 50 years old.

[moneylender] 15/10/2019 16:46

Acv I was just going by the amount of oil we have discovered already, I have no doubt more will be found on our patch and there is certainly far more than 12 years worth in the greater Puntamayo!

£1 by Xmas.

[acv74] 15/10/2019 16:42

It's GC's job to get the potential purchasers to see the real value of the company rather than the rather deflated share price There are few better people we could have doing this for us right now.If NH is in country that makes me think things are afoot.

[acv74] 15/10/2019 16:33

I'm assuming with a bit of ongoing maintenance the OBA will last more than 12 years?

[lucyp00p] 15/10/2019 16:30

Is Rex back? Looking at closing trades, sensing mischief.

[notimpressed] 15/10/2019 16:16

brexit deal euphoria driving mkt up, except amer
which is down

[moneylender] 15/10/2019 15:41

Within the next 4 to 6 weeks we should be in a far better position and have some concrete details to discuss. Still £1 by Xmas, got the timing right, now for the price to catch up!

Here is another way of looking at it.

OBA throughput 50,000/day @ say $3 a barrel profit. Allowing some down time of 30 days!
50,000x325x3 = $48 Million dollars gross profit PA
OBA life span say 12 years gives us a profit of somewhere around $575,000,000

Thats how OXY or GTE will be looking at the value.

I will leave you all to convert that into a share price valuation
CPO and Platinillio all in for zero still gives a healthy share price

Still £1 by Xmas

Edit: the OBA could, with a bit of investment handle 70,000bopd.

[notimpressed] 15/10/2019 15:20

bigwavedave, they are in the tunnel and we are in the dark

[lucyp00p] 15/10/2019 15:06

Assuming ONGC know the true value of CP05, which JW thinks is massive, and will bid accordingly, no way this sale goes to anyone else without a multi bag premium in my very humble opinion.

[fatgreek] 15/10/2019 14:41

OXY like paying premiums too. Look what happened last time they bid for someone, they paid way over just to win the bid...

[bigwavedave] 15/10/2019 14:30

...and I wouldn't be surprised to see OXY trump all bids.

[bigwavedave] 15/10/2019 14:20

ML - OK, that would make sense. I have learned to take Amerisur timescales with a very large pinch of salt. However...the Oct 11 statement about seeking to conclude the FSP by y/e sounds credible. I read that as "signed off by" rather than "final submissions by". If so, we must be approaching the end-game.

[moneylender] 15/10/2019 13:27

BWD you know me, thats not from my usual source butI think its genuine. HQ has gone into lockdown, nothing coming out of there atm, mind you there aren't many staff left there either. I think those that thought GC is going to retire might be close to the truth or at least move his interests sideways, no longer in Cardiff, is a poss imv.

Still £1 by Xmas.

[lucyp00p] 15/10/2019 13:22

Well I don't think ONGC want all our assets, and I don't think ONGC will let anyone else have CP05. ONGC are also strapped for cash so won't be looking to finance a knockout bid. I think this company will go in pieces despite what the board wants. Of course if the bidders accept the true value of the CP05 fairway, and ignore the ONGC fun and games, it could get really ugly and very lucrative.

[bigwavedave] 15/10/2019 13:19

ML - Good to know. Are they in "the tunnel"?

[paradores] 15/10/2019 13:17

Any takeout price leading with a 3 is a result for shareholders. IMO there’s a better than an average chance of a bidding war given the assets and infrastructure set-up and that being a reality.

[fatgreek] 15/10/2019 12:34

Come on 20p here kitty kitty..... let's break you so we can move into new territory.....