Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 29/1/2019 12:49

Sell or buy?

[bountyhunter] 29/1/2019 12:47

more tea? 😉

only joking you are most likely correct

[gersemi] 29/1/2019 12:45

1m sell at 17p - delayed print

If that's not Harbour then I'm a China-woman with a moostash

Go away ffs

[charlieeee] 29/1/2019 12:36

Clearly, many do not get the bigger picture, plentymorefish.

Combination trapping in Indico doubled the target from 10 MMBO to 23 MMbo 2p and that gave a NAV of £62.7, using Peel Hunt calculations (which may of course be flawed).

If Calao is as successful, then it is not going to be far behind in value.

Then Pavo real

Look at the slide showing the Aguila potential: 44 MMBO

So it goes on: a series of mega targets, where actual still manages to exceed predicted.

These are significant figures and yet we still have posters thinking that JW's time should be spent in Platinillo.

OXY scarcely gets a mention and yet it is a $93.5 million contribution toward funding Putumayo.

Even the OBA, now fully paid, is going to be an ongoing profit center, money for nothing and that is a rare beast on AIM.

Either all the negative posters here do not get the bigger picture over the longer term or they are totally disingenuous.

I do understand why traders will sell and move on: they have a different mindset, are not investing over a longer period and therefore pay little attention to the fundamentals, but the bigger picture is certainly getting lost in the chaff of idle chatter and some obviously deliberate misinformation.

[tom111] 29/1/2019 12:18

And your point is?Theres lots of forcasts from various sources so what

[plentymorefish] 29/1/2019 12:03

Here's what the messiah posted on the 4th of January 2019:

"To think there was a director buy at 13.5p on the initial OXY farm-in on 23/11/18 and where are we now...? This is one very steady re-rate, whilst steady is a state I'm very happy with, am struggling to believe this is STILL sub 20p! Bonkers.

Go help yourself! I M V H O"

If you followed their 'advice' you'd only be 15% down now

[kaos3] 29/1/2019 11:52

how long does it take for institutions to fill their boots? months? as AMER BOD is good with the city I expect no significant news for the next few months 2 or more. which is confirmed by the share price action - no kinetic energy popping 20p. no chance 23p for some time - range trading probably.

[knackers] 29/1/2019 11:35

Still don't think folk get the bigger picture.

4 drills from Indico pad + Sol and Aguila, possibly each with their own rigs, all drill work completed before the end Aug. Indico pad drills will be back-to-back.

Indico was a slam-dunk, "Indico-1 is targeting the same play as the successful Mariposa-1 well but is further up-dip in a larger structure."

They'll now have a v good picture of what they have, all boils down to the quality of the traps in these adjacent structure as there's no issue with the source (100%)or LS3 sand porosity and deliverability(100%) hence CoS is high esp as 3d seismic will give a good read across. This is now all about sizing the prize.

Besides it's NW corner, CPO5 [IMHO] has plenty more riches to bestow. As for AMER's other assets, let's just say Platanillo pales into insignificance. By 3Q19 it will be delivering <30% of total production even with all wells there returned to something closer to full production.

Be in no doubt, institutions will now be in for a slice of the next and IMHO final chapter ahead of the Cos eventual sale.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/1/2019 11:28

SiriusBizness
29 Jan '19 - 11:24 - 16653 of 16653
0 0 0
Did they give a timescale for the four wells?

..You could read last weeks' update, where you will see no timescale was given. The plan is to drill 4 wells from the same drill pad, back to back... then move the rig to Sol, or perhaps more likely contract a second rig for that well.

[siriusbizness] 29/1/2019 11:24

Did they give a timescale for the four wells? I would love to see them all drilled this year including NE, Sol-1 and Aguila however I am setting my expectations lower given last years performance. I appreciate they aren’t the operator here but reading the past RNSs even Indico took longer than first planned. Good results from the next two wells will be enough to propel this forward as confidence rebuilds and production/reserves increase

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/1/2019 10:54

SiriusBizness
29 Jan '19 - 08:04 - 16638 of 16650
0 1 0
xxnjr, given current rate from ONGC I think we will drill 3 wells in CPO-5 this year (Calao-1, Real-Pavo-1, an another at Indico)

....Really don't understand your comment. Last week the company said they would drill,

"a minimum of four additional wells from the Indico pad to determine the prospectivity of the area within the LS3 play".

That's just for starters in CPO-5

[charlieeee] 29/1/2019 10:50

Re Indico pre drilling, it was described as

"Indico-1 is targeting the same play as the successful Mariposa-1 well but is further up-dip in a larger structure. The Operator estimates a gross P50 recoverable resource at Indico-1 of 10.3 MMBO. CPO-5 is located to the south of the prolific Llanos 34 block and to the east of the Corcel fields and includes the producing Mariposa-1 well."

So, P50 was a 50/50 chance of success for Indico and that was based on Mariposa, 6.5 km away, trends and seismic.

Re Calao, they are drilling off the same pad, with adjacent actual drill bit data so at least a similar probability.

The potential at Calao is described as prospective resources

"Prospective estimated volumes associated with undiscovered
Resources accumulations. These represent quantities of
petroleum which are estimated, as of a given
date, to be potentially recoverable from oil
and gas deposits identified on the basis of indirect
evidence but which have not yet been drilled"

The excitement for the company is if the Calao drill discovers combination trapping, resulting in significantly higher resources than those estimated.

"Calao-1, targeting a structure alongside Indico to the southwest, towards the Aguila structure which is expected to spud before the end of January 2019. On a simple structural basis, McDaniel estimates prospective resources at Calao of between 2 and 9.8 MMBO.

Given the potential for combination trapping, the Company believes potential resources may be significantly higher at both Calao-1 and Pavo Real-1".

[tom111] 29/1/2019 10:33

My buy shown as a sale surprise surprise

[swerves1] 29/1/2019 10:31

MM's offering over the Bid now!
17p for 50k, and 16.99 for 100,000.
So the demand looks strong now, probably they have ii's orders to fill!
Any good news and this could move up quickly imo

[roth] 29/1/2019 10:09

25% chance of success for Calao 1 seems a bit mean. I would put it at least at 50% given JW's enthusiasm but I'm no expert. Would welcome other views.

[gemlotte55] 29/1/2019 09:56

How much left on the book?

[tom111] 29/1/2019 09:44

Dare I say we are at the bottom of the cycle,looking stronger today.Just need that news

[somnus101] 29/1/2019 09:21

Spot on, Swerves.

[swerves1] 29/1/2019 09:16

Just a reminder!

22/1/2019
John Wardle CEO:

"The activity we plan in CPO-5 and in our acreage in the Putumayo basin during 2019 has the potential to transform Amerisur - I have never been more excited by, or optimistic about the Company's future".

Can there be anyone that knows more about the prospects here than John Wardle? And he's been happy to invest further at 17.5p just a few weeks ago.
The doomsayers have their own agendas of course, and we know what they are.
But it should be a transformational year for Amerisur, with 2 major oilers as partners and leading to some likely bidding action at some stage imo!

[paradores] 29/1/2019 08:50

Think you might just be right there bounty ;o)

IIs buys through much of y'day. MMs have the bigger picture. We've simply come back to these levels for an exchange between large players; once worked through the re-rate will continue. With news imminent this won't be held back much longer.
RSI at about 50 is another good buy flag.

Great upside from these prices over next 2 months. Cracking trade IMHO.

[bountyhunter] 29/1/2019 08:05

That would be a dive not a bounce ;-)

I'll go for a bounce from around here supported by the recent director buys although I get the distinct impression that this share is being talked down by those who see the huge potential and would like to get in as cheaply as possible!

[siriusbizness] 29/1/2019 08:04

xxnjr, given current rate from ONGC I think we will drill 3 wells in CPO-5 this year (Calao-1, Real-Pavo-1, an another at Indico) so could get close to 9,000bopd just from the additions in CPO-5. This would be an approx. 40% increase in revenues. This is assuming 100 success on each drill (PH gave each well a 25% CoS) and given the rhetoric from JW I think its not too far fetched. The game changer this year would be a 2nd and 3rd rig. News on this would get me very excited. Obviously lots of other potential good news but it’s this bit that could grow us quickly in the short term.