Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the drewster] 31/10/2017 10:44

6000 $40 netbacks per day soon mount up.

[charlieeee] 31/10/2017 10:32

Well, having asked the question, I should also "play".

In September, they only operated for 20 out of the 30 days, bringing the average down from 6033 bopd to 4022 bopd.

So, all they have to to achieve 6000 bopd is to operate for the whole month.

With Plat 25 on, Nov should approach the 7000 bopd.

They need to already be moving on to Plat 27 to get a really good exit figure for Dec.

We'll see....

[the drewster] 31/10/2017 10:31

West texas is over $54 ... netbacks increasing and stated as $30 @ $45 oil back in September.

Need more P2 banked, but very cash generative at the moment.

[the dark horse] 31/10/2017 10:22

I get the distinct feeling that we will look back in 2018 and admit that all the signs, Fundamental and Tech Analysis, were giving positive indications and wonder why we weren't brave enough to pile in.
I recall that in October 2011 we were not dissimilarly placed in that the price having reached an ATH of 30p in June had collapsed back to 10p. By Oct 2012 it was high 40's and on its way to 60p in the spring of 2013.
IMHO we are better placed now, for all sorts of reasons, than we were in Oct 2011 and baring some force majeure occurrence, I truly expect us to be celebrating a min double by Oct 2018 and that too will only be part way of the journey.
I know its like a drug but as a wise owl said years ago, spending all day watching the share price didn't make much difference to it.
GLA

[fadilz] 31/10/2017 10:11

Their capex plans were based on $45 oil, and I estimate they have made $6m more from production so far this year than would have been the case at $45. That's about 2 wells.

If oil stays at this level, this becomes more like $1.5m per month (at 5k production) - or an extra well every 2 months.

This is a virtuous circle, and it would not surprise me if they consider a dividend going into 2019.

If you believe in this, it is a reason to buy now. On past form share price will reflect current production/profit/reserves as they evolve.

[quidnunc] 31/10/2017 10:07

SP struggling to nail the Tenkan and still going sideways.
In a good place and on Bullish candles.
Q.





nec pugnae aviditate pascere

[davwall] 31/10/2017 10:05

Daily average: 6750

[the drewster] 31/10/2017 09:59

Peak over 7500, average about 6000 (hopefully)

[charlieeee] 31/10/2017 09:49

Long gone are the days of loyalty. To a large extent, fund managers are judged on annual performance and would grab any premium with both hands, particularly as it is the only way to successfully exit any position of size.

With the current (and expected)POO, this is the time for a producer to be pumping the oil and the next couple of months are critical. What they need to do is deliver consistently on the highs that they have achieved. In the 2nd October RNS, they were pleased to report peak daily production in September of 7397 bopd and current production of 7400 bopd. What is required is that to happen consistently every day and given that they have added Plat 25 and added a payzone in Plat 21, plus the operations on Plat 10, 11 and 20, surely that should now be achievable (and CPO 5 should be jam on top, not part of that 7000+ bopd).

Guesses as to this month's average production?

[davwall] 31/10/2017 09:33

...and they're not even doing it on a buy-one-get-one-free basis!

[fsawatcher] 31/10/2017 09:30

do directors know they gonna sell the entire biz to indians or sommat coz they jus keep buyin like billyo

[rollthedice] 31/10/2017 09:29

Explains yesterdays mini-jump... all good when Directors showing some faith in the business.

[bountyhunter] 31/10/2017 09:28

Director Share Dealing

Amerisur Resources Plc, the oil and gas producer and explorer focused on South America, announces that on 30 October 2017 Dana Coffield, Independent Non-executive Director of Amerisur, acquired 151,000 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence at a price of 19.77 pence per share, for a total cost of GBP29,853.

Following this transaction, Dana Coffield holds 151,000 ordinary shares, which represents a total of 0.01% of the Company's issued share capital.

[davwall] 31/10/2017 09:27

More director buying. Dana Coffield at 151k...

[boris cobaka] 31/10/2017 08:56

davwall - finger poised...

[blackdown2] 31/10/2017 08:48

As long as something positive happens. This jam tomorrow approach certainly tests the patience.

[foiledagain] 31/10/2017 07:55

'There would be no point in a HOSTILE predator snapping 8% or more if they knew that the BoD would be given support by major holders in fighting a hostile approach and that in my opinion is why there has not been an approach (so far)'

Perhaps this answers your query Westmore

It does not preclude an agreed bid.

In my opinion institutions supported the BoD in the sell off and were notified of the sell off and pledged support which is why no HOSTILE bid has surfaced.

Its usual before a bid for potential bidder to canvas the institutions and significant players as well as the BoD. There would be no point in pursuing a hostile bid without the institutions at least being on board.

Now if the price is right then its different, as then the institutions and BoD through nods and winks could arrive at a figure that the predator would know was the price, then its a different story.

The rules make it clear that if a bidder hostile or otherwise makes a definite bid, that has to be put to shareholders, whether the BoD approve or not, but a bidder knows that if he has not got the support of institutions or the BoD then its not worth making a hostile bid that has to go public, so the price is an agreed bid or nothing.

That is how it will happen with Amerisur in my opinion.

[fadilz] 31/10/2017 07:24

I would say that there is no X factor - or at least that whatever the X factor is, I see not evidence that it has changed whilst I have been watching - ie since mid 2014. share price now has moved relative to share price then in lockstep with NPV. All other things are still equal in my view, and what we are waiting for is sustained production. Confirmation of increased netbacks given the higher poo should also help.

[westmoreland lad] 31/10/2017 00:48

Hi Lucy, hope u ok ? Yes understand the X factor, but of more importance to investors here is to try and think outside the box and INTO the future.

Many thanks Rex or whoever, I've been adding the dips as should others - imo

GL

[lucyp00p] 30/10/2017 23:50

Westie you are overlooking the X factor. If only we knew what the X factor was which is deterring others from seeing the value here

[westmoreland lad] 30/10/2017 23:16

oilandgas1 -- also, perhaps Foiled Again ( a trusted writer over many moons )might
elect to re write your above last paragraph and give us clearer understanding of why no predator would not be snapping at AMER's heels and where a previous poster shows values at 4000blspd = 20p per share v > 7000 blspd by eoy = ???
Plus -- CPO5 M1 tests, Mariposa-1 interpretation of the short term test data in nov17 with oil prod by Dec17 and follow up drills = ???

Sorry FA, for the first time I can't agree. I'll buy for 2 shillings and sell for a pound and so will every man and his dog currently running the slide ruler over AMER along with the required due diligence.

[davwall] 30/10/2017 15:13

Still window-shopping, Boris..?