Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 07/11/2017 23:27

Big7ime,

Interested how you get to 46p?

My numbers tend to correlate with with Fadilz, although our methods differ and we disagree on the prophetic abilities of NPV.

Having said that I haven't run the rule over Amerisur in some time, haven't seen the point as I know my target price is well above where we are now and my portfolio is too Amerisur heavy to make it worth buying more.

[tonyrelaxes] 07/11/2017 23:14

Submitting an independent annual reserves report is a requirement under Colombian licences.

Giving them to PIs is probably less important.

[al101uk] 07/11/2017 23:07

Mintington,

They do a reserves report every 12 months, as of end of December, normally published in March if memory serves me.

[davwal] 07/11/2017 22:37

Iran is already taking on SA with some success, but indirectly via proxy conflicts such as Iraq, Yemen and Syria. Meanwhile the Saudi Crown Prince wants to be king and is making waves inside SA. If he decides to hit back directly at Iran an already dreadful situation for the peoples of the wider region will potentially become critical. I’d personally not feel too comfortable at benefitting from a high poo while thousands more innocents were being slautered.

[mintington] 07/11/2017 21:54

Would anyone like to Azande a guess as to when the next reserves update may be due...it doesn't seem to be a regular calender event

[fsawatcher] 07/11/2017 20:46

who wins?

oil wins coz price go thru roof

saudi prince look like he gonna do wotever to get poo high again

[lucyp00p] 07/11/2017 20:33

If Iran takes on the Saudis who wins?

[harrisun] 07/11/2017 17:02

Saudi working with U,S. allowed oil price hike

allows shale ops to hedge then oil again after fixing hedges

[davwall] 07/11/2017 16:49

All things considered, the share price having held its ground today seems quite encouraging. I had feared it reversing 50% of yesterday's gains so am happy that didn't materialise.

[al101uk] 07/11/2017 15:00

fadilz,

My acceptance of TA means I also accept momentum and sentiment, these things drive prices above fair value and below it. I don't find it surprising, it's just the way markets work. Maybe frustrating would be a better word in Amerisurs case, but then I'm fine with it when it's on my side so who am I to complain.

[boris cobaka] 07/11/2017 13:19

Thanks Fadiz
It makes a decent call for a baseline at that time.

Volume not too shabby again today so far.

[fadilz] 07/11/2017 13:15

boris - situation at $45 and $30 cost of production: 9.7p

Area___ Reserves(mb)__ Barrels/day___ $/bbl profit___ #Years___ NPV10____ xBase___ sp
Plat ____25.0__________ 4000__________ 15_____________ 17_______ 176____ 0.16___ 9.7


But as we saw the situation was more like $15 cost of production, and 19.4p

Area___ Reserves(mb)__ Barrels/day___ $/bbl profit___ #Years___ NPV10____ xBase___ sp
Plat ____25.0__________ 4000__________ 30_____________ 17_______ 351____ 0.32___ 19.4

[boris cobaka] 07/11/2017 13:10

11p?
Surprised you got out of bed for that...

Any roads as i'm probably one of the few interested in a more shorter term trade the poo, COT and tech stuff tend to bear closer scrutiny.
My fuller size model guarantees 27p in the short term but if poo hits the after-burners then 30p+ would not be out of the question.

[fadilz] 07/11/2017 12:57

yes it's a hard argument to get across, but what matters is
- profit per barrel (function of poo, and cost of production, aka netback)
- volume shipped (->total profit)
- reserves (how long the party will last)

...all of these can be used to calculate a net present value, and changes in NPV, I contend, explains pretty accurately the share price movement over the past few years.

what is also surprising to some (notably al101uk) is that the market does not anticipate future improvements in npv, coming from likely discoveries, likely reduction in costs from OBA, etc. But again, by observation, AMER share price reflects *current* values.

OBA, I would argue was what saved us from a total share price collapse. Without it, my modelling would have put us at around 11p.

Anyway, whilst acknowledging uncertainty re reserves and costs, the model now predicts 30p +/-, let's see what happens over the coming month or two.

[charlieeee] 07/11/2017 12:40

Well, we simply do not agree on the cause of the share price under performance.

As far as I am concerned, RH selling has been minimal during this period when the share price cratered and it was squarely down to production: that is why, when we finally see production trending up, the share price does likewise

The POO point of view is harder to dismiss and certainly holds good over the long term, but only if AMER has a decent level of production.

There should have been a rerate on the OBA completion as such a step change in the profit per barrel should have reflected in the SP, but that seems to have been largely eradicated by uncertainty re the cap on volume and was probably impacted by the RH selling which was heavy at that time.

Going forward, it will be production (and reserves when these are reported) that will drive the share price back up and with decent cash flow, they will be able to accelerate the drilling program.

[boris cobaka] 07/11/2017 12:09

I was always a convert. It was just a question of timing - my approach though may not always be to everyone's liking...

[foiledagain] 07/11/2017 12:00

boris

You seem to have converted to Amerisur very quickly

Best of luck

[boris cobaka] 07/11/2017 11:19

Yes and the less impact the seller has the more normal dynamics take effect.
Was hardly twice the current price with an average closer to 28p and for the first 3 months there 100mil less shares around. Sector sentiment would also have had an impact driven primarily by the low oil price.

[big7ime] 07/11/2017 10:40

Anyone that's held these long enough will understand FSAwatchers post
The share price was twice this when poo was much much lower last yr
The forced seller RH has had a lot to do with that and whilst that continues
It won't be forever, once he's out this can get back to normality
I.e a share price in the 40s at this poo

[bryet] 07/11/2017 10:35

Still more sells than buys not everyone is a happy bunny let's hope they clear soon so we can move up.

[boris cobaka] 07/11/2017 10:03

Had a quick look at the last available COT report for CFTC texas crude (code 067651) a/a 31 Oct.
Very benign from a Long perspective with the so called 'smart money' showing a greater increase in long contracts than short. Overall Short contracts still higher but the difference is not that great. It'll be interesting to see today's report when available.
Speculators are massively short. If the oil price continues to push higher these guys will be under tremendous pressure and that in itself could force the surge through resistance. Bear mind again that this was a/a 31 Oct so it'll be interesting if this week also sees their positions curtailed.
Glad I looked. Could be in for a spot of volatility poo-wise.