Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davwall] 15/5/2017 09:12

Don't tell me Amer has gone into the ransomware business..?!

[9barracuda] 15/5/2017 09:08

Big news on the way!!
Hopefully this will do for amer what the OBA was supposed to do!

[trotting12] 15/5/2017 08:49

It's a blue start

[big7ime] 14/5/2017 20:56

What's the point laptop? We have this thread after all.

[valentine] 13/5/2017 21:19

I am out of one-liners Q.

[quidnunc] 13/5/2017 20:22

Sorry, I don't have enough life left to want to tweet but good luck with itQ

[laptop15] 13/5/2017 15:23

Amer long term shareholder groupWe have an AMER shareholders group on twitter now guys and you are all welcome to join. Just follow me chris brown (@laptop15) and ask me for an invite. As i mentioned Malcy is in the group too. The group is filling nicely and promoting AMER on twitter will help spread the word about the company. Imo all promotion is good and twitter is a very powerful tool when used correctly:) Good luck all

[big7ime] 12/5/2017 19:28

Excellent a close at eow at 26p bodes very well for move up and according to fingers post 8426 below we need a good vol 8m+ day. When's the next news?

Fingers chart here:

[moneylender] 12/5/2017 16:45

Still going in the right direction

[al101uk] 12/5/2017 15:34

Lucyp00p,

Depends on your perspective, for me it's very relevant:

1) It effects pretty much every projection I've made and so every investment decisions I've taken while the issue has been outstanding.

2) If it was known by others it may have had a direct effect on the share price.

3) I don't generally invest in companies managed by people who lie, either directly or by omission.

So for me, it is a hugely important matter.

But happy to drop it here unless something new emerges.

[eddie_yates] 12/5/2017 15:26

Hear Hear!!

[foiledagain] 12/5/2017 15:19

the problem is in my opinion I was not given correct information. If another poster was suggesting at the outset well problems, which were totally denied and refuted by me after receiving absolute assurances some time ago, only now to find there were problems, and where I have not received any adequate explanation, far from it.

It is no coincidence in my opinion that the share price was dropping considerable over that same period, and not in my opinion just about oil price.

No further comment on it as I don't want to be accused of this that or anything else, which seems to happen on this bb

[lucyp00p] 12/5/2017 15:08

Of course it's a thing but is it relevant? Until the OBA is free flowing Amer can't ship any extra production and turn a good profit and please, at the risk of sounding like a broken record - and I'm not the only one here, if a well is mothballed/capped whatever, it's like Schrodinger's cat and the only way to test it is to open the box and look inside. To do this simply to respond to a question from a shareholder with no intention of going in to production would be daft, especially as they seem plenty busy right now. Also reserves estimates are arbitrary and meaningless at constrained or subdued flow rates. I know this, analysts know this and when you screw the lid back on a well it doesn't feature in the numbers at all. The share price is up 15% in a week, surely nothing else matters.

[al101uk] 12/5/2017 14:06

The problem with that is that they implicitly acknowledge that there was an issue and it was across multiple wells.

The RNS from 18 months ago states that chemical stimulation was starting on closed in wells, so this issue could have been going on for some time. The time frame includes time during which many Private Investors were under the impression that there was no issue and the taps could pretty much be turned on and off at will.

To me a 75% reduction in production over a number of previously high performing wells on a single field is worthy of an RNS. If one had been issued and then followed up with the one we recently received about the treatment I would have been as happy as anyone about the news.

My problem isn't the issues with the wells which appears near resolution. It is that I didn't know there was a problem to start with and so how can I be sure if there are or are not issues in the future?

The fact that the company refuses to elaborate on the issue when asked is just galling and seems to indicate that deep down they know they should have kept the market informed.

[davidfdo] 12/5/2017 13:52

Quidnunc,

My recollection is that JW said that the guy at the end had persuaded him to get some form of coil to insert down the hole to help with the treatment. JW had been sceptical but the guy had been proved right and production was now back to former levels. They were now going to apply similar treatment to the other wells.

[money maker1] 12/5/2017 13:51

Highlands Natural Resources - HNR - is looking about to blow as its all cheap onshore USA and there is a nice mixture of oil, gas and helium. Analyst current valuations range from 3 to 7 times the current share price and with a multiple drilling program this year it won't stay at down for long.

[moneylender] 12/5/2017 13:41

Guys my take on the clean up was all about inserting coiled tubing down the hole and then injecting some "fairy Liquid" to wash it all out. This was very successful and restored the well to at least 100% previous production best.

Its envisaged that even though this process is expensive it works and will be applied to other wells whenever necessary.

Chart is looking good if 26p is maintained to the close, fingers crossed.

[fadilz] 12/5/2017 13:34

Well I think everyone should be interested in this discussion.

Whatever the truth of the 'seller' the share price still reflects the reserves, production, netback - and if the difference between actual share price and model predictions is called sentiment, then no change in sentiment from 3 years ago.

And, who knows, perhaps it is this mythical RH that is buying and selling according to this very model - but if so he's been at it for all the time I have been observing.

And if so, we have the key to RH and share price both: reserves, production, netback.

:o)

[al101uk] 12/5/2017 13:22

quidunc,

Thanks for the info.

Chemical treatment of shut in wells was announced 18 months ago, so I'm not sure how that fits.

You're right though there are potential explanations, I'd just like the board to be open about the issue and explain.

Ignoring mails and obfuscating does not cast them in a good light.

Don't know what the timescale is for a reply, having never got one, but nothing yet.

You me and val on the naughty list :-(

[al101uk] 12/5/2017 13:10

fadilz,

Para 1 - Yes :-)

Para 2 - Couldn't have said it better myself until the last bit, where I'd reserve the idea that Amerisur could, like many stocks before it, have it's future value realised by the market at any point. It's called sentiment and you'd need someone interested in TA to give you pointers on when if it will happen in the short to medium term. Certainly the last few years for oil hasn't been good for sentiment.

Para 3- and I'm the optimist? ;-D

Para 4 - The market price is reality, I can only buy/sell at market price. My theory, is always a theory until it is proved conclusively wrong or right. To be an investor you always have to put theory in front of reality or you will never buy a stock.

As usual we've argued ourselves in to agreement... until next time ;-)

You might enjoy the VALU thread, it's a friendly place to discuss this kind of thing and swap ideas when it springs in to life. Very quiet, but occasional bouts of activity. If you go back a bit, CM and I have had these kind of discussions several times before.

Not sure that AMER investors are interested in my philosophical ramblings.

[quidnunc] 12/5/2017 13:02

Lucy, I think its always good to examine the perspectives, even if they sometimes jar a little.

FA,
I guess it depends on whether they viewed what is to them an operational matter, fairly humdrum, as price sensitive and material?

You clearly think so but, to be fair, its not the POO or sales volume that's driven the share price this last six months but the seller & no form of good news that in previous years would have sent the share price rocketing has been able to shake the seller's grip on the share price
So it can't really be argued that to switch the wells on or off would have made a difference.

I would think that statistically, the more wells Amer have, the more likely they are to need to box and cox with their output against the current POO and it might be that the simple act of shutting a well down briefly causes some cloggage.

AS for their investor responses to that e-mail address, I've never had a reply to anything I've sent, even about the Landslide which was a fairly humane and one would hope non-contentious issue. Maybe I'm Blackballed too Val?

Martin, Yes a green shoot but tender....hopefully asparagus though
Q.

[fadilz] 12/5/2017 12:40

I think I am clear eyed on the back of what I *see*. And I invest in this share because I (unlike the market) am attributing value to future potential. I'm grateful to the market for that opportunity.

So yes, we agree that the company will be worth a lot more in future. I simply say it does not appear to price in risk*potential in any way that is different from 3 years ago. Hence any increase in share price has to await more reserves, production, and netbacks.


As noted earlier I have no difficulty in seeing well in excess of £1+ over the coming 2-3 years.


If your position is that the share price should reflect more of the upside now, then I say that on the evidence so far you are putting theory ahead of reality. Perhaps this will change as other risks reduce (social, OBA, etc).

[lucyp00p] 12/5/2017 12:39

Does anybody else give a monkey's cuss about this issue?

[foiledagain] 12/5/2017 12:23

quid
but is a big deal when they refute a problem with wells stating they are taken off line because of low poo

Hear nothing more, no RNS's or anything with the next RNS years after that they are conducting remedial work on wells they suggested were perfectly OK.

And would not be ok for any company on AIM or the main board to withhold sensitive information from some shareholders, especially in a period that for some inexplicable reason share price may have plummeted, not just from the poo where some must have been offloading.

The investor who posted about problems knew something we didn't and it was absolutely refuted. These treated well are not matching anywhere near their pre shut in performance and we are not talking about a normal yearly decline rate of 8% per annum on production this is from shut in wells where the only comment was that they were taken off line because of the price of oil. After shutting in you could expect build up, but the extent of decline is not insignificant.

When then I get an explanation that does not answer question I addressed, and where I was in communication with Amerisur and representatives of same, I don't expect to be told something that I mention on a bb in good faith only to find it appears to have been less than accurate.

[marnewton] 12/5/2017 11:47

I'm saying nowt, Q, for fear of spooking it!

M