ADVFN Logo ADVFN

We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now

Toplists

It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Hot Features

Registration Strip Icon for default Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.

AA4 Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited

38.20
0.10 (0.26%)
26 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited LSE:AA4 London Ordinary Share GG00BNDVLS54 RED ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.10 0.26% 38.20 38.00 38.40 38.20 38.10 38.20 180,781 08:00:20
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Equip Rental & Leasing, Nec 208.1M 58.81M 0.1935 1.97 116.09M
Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited is listed in the Equip Rental & Leasing sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AA4. The last closing price for Amedeo Air Four Plus was 38.10p. Over the last year, Amedeo Air Four Plus shares have traded in a share price range of 38.10p to 49.60p.

Amedeo Air Four Plus currently has 303,899,361 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Amedeo Air Four Plus is £116.09 million. Amedeo Air Four Plus has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 1.97.

Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

Showing 51 to 69 of 1075 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
19/7/2019
10:44
I was interested to see if the A380 saga would be reflected in any way in the latest accounts. It seems not and the company is continuing to be optimistic with regard to residual valuations. They are calculating an NAV of 109.7p which the market clearly doesn't agree with.

However, the annual p/l also looks a bit worrying. Comparing the FY Mar19 to FY Mar18 there are four material differences:

1) Income is up from £219m to £254m although around half of this is due to the fall in GBP (Note 17B says 1.303 in Mar19 accounts versus 1.402 in Mar18 accounts)

2) Depreciation is up from £118m to £156m (both involve ccy adjusts of 22-£25m (note 9) so underlying depreciation is up significantly. This possibly relates to the following:

Note 9 states : Included in the depreciation charge for the period is additional depreciation in respect of certain aircraft which recognised an acceleration in the pattern of consumption of benefits expected from these aircraft based on the redelivery conditions of the aircraft and their residual values.

The FY accounts don't mention which aircraft are being depreciated at a faster rate although the latest quarterly report seems to point to the 777-300ER residual values being in decline. The A380s are actually showing a small INCREASE in residual values i.e. nothing in the accounts to reflect the possible future A380 risk at the end of the current leases.

3) Finance costs are up from £50m to £85m. Underlying interest on loans was £69m reflecting the high debt levels.

4) FX gains were £2m versus £185m last year. This item can be largely ignored since the assets and income streams are almost all in USD and matched against USD liabilities.

AA4 have not bought any more aircraft recently so going forward income is largely static; does this year's PBT of £8.48m, free of FX gains, represent the more transparent PBT going forward? With EPS at just 1.31p while the dividend was 8.25p I note the chairman's comment that 'your Board is hopeful of continuing to pay such dividends for the foreseeable future'. Note > Hopeful, rather than confident!!

pimsim
19/7/2019
07:37
AA4 has released its Annual Financial Report for 2019 following its Q2 fact sheet last week.  AA4's shares went ex-dividend today with monies payable by the end of July.  The Company continues to deliver upon its investment objectives and, at a current share of roughly 90p*, offers sterling running yield of over 9% via quarterly dividends from owning and leasing widebody aircraft to flag carrier airlines (Emirates, Etihad and Thai).  Subsequent to the share price movements following the announcement from Airbus of the cessation of the A380 programme the company's share price is implying a significant discount to the latest average appraisal values (totalling some 154.2p per share as a potential future return of capital based on the Company Q2 fact sheet – see table and its related footnotes below) with outstanding targeted dividends remaining of roughly 9 years, on average, for AA4 totalling 73.6p.  See below tables for current running yield, performance, and implied future total returns based on the average appraisal values.*18-Jul-19The Chairman's statement highlights that the key development during the period was the announcement on 14 February 2019 that Airbus will close production of the A380 in 2021. But notes: "The announcement by Airbus has no direct impact on the Company's leases nor its ability to pay targeted distributions. The Company's first lease expiry does not fall due until 2026. While the A380 forms approximately two-thirds of the Group's portfolio by appraised value, the portfolio is complemented and diversified by two additional aircraft models, namely the B777-300ER and A350-900."The Asset Managers Report contained in the Q2 2019 AA4 fact sheet published on 5 July (and outlined in our last communication on 8 July) provides commentary and updated appraisal valuation information for each of the aircraft models owned by the Company.Further, the Boards of the subsidiaries of AA4 have seen fit to re-designate their functional currency to US Dollars from 1 April 2018 and the subsequent accounting for the year ended 31 March 2019.   In the view of the Boards this is reflective of the most recent economic environment of these subsidiaries, as much of their rental income and sources of financing are primarily US Dollar based. This is the first year that the Thai planes which pay all their income in US dollars are all included.As ever, if you have any further questions or would like to request an update meeting or to schedule a meeting with the Chairman/Directors please contact Chris Holland at Nimrod Capital.Company Returns (GBP):      Fund Launch Date 13-May-15         AA4+       Dividends 35.06%  Capital Gain -10.00%  Total Return1 25.86%  Annualised Total Return1 5.65%       FTSE All-Share Annualised Total Return1 5.99%      Source: Bloomberg, 18-Jul-19 1Since inception, dividends reinvested       Current Metrics & Implied Future Total Returns (based on latest Mar-19 appraisals):        AA4+       Market Cap £578m  Yield 9.2%  Share Price 90p       Targeted Distributions 73.6p  Return of Capital* 154.2p  Total Return 227.8p      Source: Bloomberg, 18-Jul-19 & Company Q2 '19 fact sheet, adjusted for XD amount of 2.0625p on 18-Jul-19 *Please review the associated disclaimers and assumptions contained within the respective DNA/AA4 fact sheets when considering this information.      The Annual Report has been released on RNS and will also shortly be available at:http://www.aa4plus.comNimrod Capital LLP ('Nimrod') is not a broker, it does not trade with any counterparties, it does not produce investment research nor does it have any paid for research agreements with any counterparties.  This communication does not constitute "research" as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority Handbook and may be assessed as a minor non-monetary benefit.Kind RegardsMarc GordonPartnerDDI: + 44 207 382 4560 |Mob: + 44 7785 297620 |Tel: + 44 207 382 4565 |Fax: +44 207 628 7548Nimrod Capital LLP, 3 St Helen's Place, London EC3A 6ABwww.nimrodcapital.com_________________________________________________________________________________________________________Nimrod Capital LLP – a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales.  Registration number – OC335533.  Registered office address – 69/85 Tabernacle Street, 2ndFloor, London EC2A 4RR.  This e-mail is sent in confidence.  The contents are not to be disclosed to anyone other than the addressee.  E-mail communications are not secure and therefore Nimrod Capital LLP does not accept legal responsibility for the contents of this message.  Any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Nimrod Capital LLP unless otherwise specifically stated.  This e-mail and any attachment are confidential and contain proprietary information, some of which may be legally privileged.  It is intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the author immediately by telephone or by replying to this e-mail, and then delete all copies of the e-mail on your system.  If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use, disclose, distribute, copy, print or rely on this e-mail.Whilst we have taken reasonable precautions to ensure that this e-mail and any attachment has been checked for viruses, we cannot guarantee that they are virus free and we cannot accept liability for any damage sustained as a result of software viruses.  We would advise that you carry out your own virus checks, especially before opening an attachment.Nimrod Capital LLP is a data controller with respect to your personal data for the purpose of the General Data Protection Regulation.  By proceeding to use our service you consent that we may process the personal data (including sensitive personal data) that we collect from you in accordance with our Privacy Policy This includes the recording of telephone calls made to telephone numbers registered to the Company.We hold your contact details because we have previously provided you with products or services and we believe you may wish to hear from us about similar products or services.  If you do not want to receive any further communications from us, please unsubscribe by contacting the following email address:info@nimrodcapital.com.Nimrod Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 
davebowler
18/7/2019
18:55
Were they? I got the impression it was more to do with changing the currency used in the accounting process
riff1954
18/7/2019
16:45
Results were extremely bad. Maybe this will drift down to 80p
sbb1x
09/5/2019
11:51
Nimrod;
This morning Emirates released their 2018-19 results. Below we highlight commentary from the Annual Report relating to the A380 as well as summarising Emirates performance and milestones over the year. Links to the full announcements and reports are at the end of this email. We also provide an updated table detailing share price total return for each of the DNA/AA4 companies. As ever, if you have any questions on the results or would like to arrange a meeting or call please do get in touch. Many thanks.

Emirates comments relating to the A380 from the 2018-19 Annual Report:

We are strong believers in the A380 programme, despite Airbus’ decision to stop production in 2021. Our current and future investments in the iconic Emirates A380, including the introduction of Premium Economy in 2020, will continue to wow our customers. We have been reviewing our fleet mix options for some time now, so converting some of our A380 orders into A330neos and A350s gives us the required flexibility. In 2019-20, we plan to receive six A380s and retire eight Boeing 777s, keeping our fleet strong and young.
Our A380s continue to command awe and stir excitement.
We continue to maintain our position as the largest operator of A380 aircraft and with the addition of 7 new aircraft, we now have 109 super-jumbos in our fleet. The high seat factor on the A380 fleet continues to demonstrate the customer preference for this aircraft. This fleet carried 41% (2017-18: 41%) of our passengers in 2018-19. With A380s operating to 50 destinations, 32% (2017-18: 31%) of all cities across the Emirates network are served by an A380. This aircraft will remain the cornerstone of our fleet mix and product offering well into the 2030s.
We also include a recent article which first appeared in the April 2019 edition of Australian Aviation: “THERE’S PLENTY OF LIFE LEFT IN THE AIRBUS A380”. The article provides a detailed re-cap of recent A380 developments and also commentary on the potential future outlook for the model. The article is available here: hxxps://australianaviation.com.au/2019/05/theres-plenty-of-life-left-in-the-airbus-a380/














Emirates Group Announces 2018-19 results

Group records 31st consecutive year of profit of AED 2.3 billion (US$ 631 million)

Emirates reports a profit of AED 871 million (US$ 237 million), 69% down from the previous year

Revenue increases by 6% to AED 97.9 billion (US$ 26.7 billion), supported by steady passenger and cargo performance
Airline capacity crosses 63 billion ATKM with a net addition of 2 new aircraft to the fleet

davebowler
07/5/2019
08:44
ADVFN is hosting an investor event for Avation plc on the 21st May to find out about their future prospects.

Sign up to attend this event:

shiv1986
30/4/2019
13:12
Nimrod Capital;
Below we reproduce the most recent email which was sent to investors ahead of the shortened week before Easter. The only updates are the current metrics and fund return tables and investors should note that the respective companies went ex-dividend as planned. As ever, if you have any further comments or questions please do get in touch to arrange a meeting.

The DNA/AA4 investment companies have released their fact sheets for Q1 2019 and also declared their latest quarterly dividend distributions for April. The shares will go ex their respective dividend amounts on Thursday 18th April with payments made by the end of the month.

The latest fact sheets highlight news and developments not only on the A380 but also the various airlines and the global aviation market. In this email we highlight through a Q&A, which we hope investors will find useful, a re-cap of some of the most common and relevant questions investors have been asking following the announcement that Airbus will close production of the A380 in 2021 (investors might also wish to look at Emirates’ consequent statement - hxxps://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-signs-deal-for-40-a330-900s-30-a350-900s). Clearly this development has impacted the DNA/AA4 company ratings with the shares marked-down pretty much universally upon the announcement, apparently with little differentiation to reflect their varying size, diversity, outstanding dividends or potential for capital outcome. Regardless, both existing and prospective shareholders should note few other investments have the transparency and granularity of the financial structure that can enable analysts and portfolio managers to model the outstanding targeted dividends and their own assumptions regarding aircraft valuations in order to assess the sensitivity of prospective returns and IRRs.

Finally, we note that during the last week of March AA4 Director, David Gelber, purchased 16,000 shares in AA4, bringing his holding to 322,518 shares in the company.

Q&A

Is it bad news that Airbus is closing production of the A380?

The announcement removes the uncertainty which has hung over the programme for more than two years now and brings clarity to investors, airlines and lessors over how many A380s will be produced. The scale of the reduction in Emirates A380 order was notable, having previously had 178 aircraft on either order/option, and was likely, in part, driven by Rolls Royce’ reluctance to deliver further Trent 900 engines. This follows engine durability problems with high-pressure compressor blades and performance issues in the hot and sandy Dubai climate leading to Rolls Royce incurring significant financial cost through compensation clauses.

Our partners Doric and Amedeo both believe that the shutdown of the A380 program should, on balance, be perceived as positive for the utilisation and potential future value of the aircraft on lease to the Emirates.

At the time of the announcement Amedeo commented:

"Amedeo considers today's Airbus announcement to have positive implications for the future values of the installed A380 fleet, particularly those aircraft operated by Emirates.

We estimate that the long-term core Emirates A380 fleet will comprise in excess of 100 A380 units, which we expect will continue to be operated by Emirates for the entirety of their useful economic lives.”

Prior to the announcement Doric commented:

The A380 has been and remains to be a niche aircraft, which constitutes a very valuable asset under the right circumstances. … A timely termination of the program would leave Emirates without access to new A380s for replacement and to keep up with its growth plans. From an aircraft owner’s point of view, a production stop can be seen as a value enhancement to existing A380s. It will limit the supply of A380s - and hence the number of competing aircraft, when it comes to a release or sale. As the number of used A380s available is very limited and the overall A380 fleet would not grow further, due to a looming production stop, Emirates should be incentivized to keep their existing A380s longer than originally planned

Emirates first 90 A380s delivered are all equipped with Engine Alliance engines (a joint-venture between GE and Pratt and Whitney) and indeed are the engine type fitted to all of the A380s owned across the DNA/AA4 investment companies (including those with Etihad). It appears Emirates A380 fleet will now only ever consist of a maximum of 123 aircraft, of which 60 are currently on operating lease with the outstanding deliveries expected to be financed either on balance sheet or via other finance structures. Rolls-Royce are reluctant to produce the improvements in the engine performance that Emirates demanded as they continue to service a back-log of grounded aircraft (Boeing 787 Dreamliners), combined with senior management changes at Airbus (incoming new CEO, CFO and COO) and, ultimately, Emirates frustration with the Trent program, seemingly pressed Emirates into a reduction of their A380 order. However, both Rolls-Royce and Airbus have still secured alternative equipment deliveries, and their on-going relationships with the Emirates, through the aforementioned A330neo and A350 deliveries (the latter not due to start until 2024) – where Rolls-Royce also happen to be the sole engine provider.

Are Emirates changing their fleet strategy? Why did they order some A330neo’s and A350s?

Neither the A330neo, nor the A350 are direct competitors to the A380 in terms of passenger capacity (seating roughly 260-330 passengers respectively, depending on layouts, versus from 489 to 615 for Emirates’ A380s in 3-class or 2-class configurations).

Emirates, alongside the announcement by Airbus, were highly complementary about the A380 in their press release. His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group stated, “For us, the A380 is a wonderful aircraft loved by our customers and our crew. It is a differentiator for Emirates. ..... The A380 will remain a pillar of our fleet well into the 2030s.” Further, an Emirates spokesperson commented: “Bear in mind the A380s we receive in 2021 will be flying for another 15-20 years… We have some units on our books, some on lease or other structures, so retirement age will vary, but we intend to keep flying our A380s for as long as we can.”

Even Emirates 777X deliveries which are due to start in 2020 are, most likely, destined to refresh the early 777-300ER deliveries while the A330neo referenced above will be utilised on shorter-haul routes with less traffic. The A350 deliveries are not scheduled to start until 2024.

Will Airbus and suppliers continue to support service and maintenance of the aircraft going forward?

In short, yes. At the recent ceremony for the first A380 delivery to All Nippon Airways (ANA), CEO Shinya Katanozaka stressed that he has “no concern” over the closing of the A380 production line, pointing out that the carrier has been promised “strong support for maintenance and parts supply”. Parts suppliers to the programme, such as GKN have also made public comments about the provision of parts and Airbus themselves recently notified operators that full support will remain in place until less than five units remain in the air.

hxxps://www.arabianbusiness.com/transport/414057-global-a380-suppliers-should-see-revenue-for-20-more-years

How many A380s will there be and who will be operating them?

The total production run for the aircraft will be around 250 units. There were 17 further deliveries outlined in the announcement by Airbus (14th February 2019). 14 of these deliveries will go the Emirates, taking their total number of A380 deliveries to 123 by 2021 while three A380s will be operated by All Nippon Airways (ANA) of Japan – the first of which was delivered on 20th March 2019.

Current operator list and outstanding orders:



Operator

Total in Service

Total on Order

Emirates Airline

109

14

Singapore Airlines

19

0

Lufthansa

14

0

British Airways

12

0

Qantas

12

0

Air France

10

0

Etihad Airways

10

0

Korean Air

10

0

Qatar Airways

10

0

Asiana Airlines

6

0

Malaysia Airlines

6

0

Thai Airways International

6

0

China Southern Airlines

5

0

Hi Fly Malta

1

0

ANA - All Nippon Airways

0

3

231

17

How many potential A380 lease expiries are there over the coming years?

According to data from Ascend, which is regularly updated for new information, the current outlook for A380 lease expiries over the next four years is:

2019: None

2020: 5, none of which are Emirates

2021: 7, 2 of which are Emirates

2022: 9, 4 of which are Emirates (including DNA1 in Dec-22)

When are the next independent appraisals out?

Appraisals are undertaken annually based on 31st March valuation date (the date of each company’s financial year-end). The appraisal values will be published on the quarterly fact sheets for Q2 which are due to be released in July and are a simple average of the three independent expert appraisers which incorporate future inflation expectations from each respective appraiser. The aircraft values reported under IFRS, published in the respective audited accounts of each company, are reported without inflation (but the same in all other respects).

Current Metrics:





























DNA



DNA 2



DNA 3



AA4+



























Market Cap



£40m



£326m



£197m



£652m





Yield



9.6%



9.6%



9.2%



8.1%





Share Price



97p



188.5p



89.5p



101.5p

























Source: Bloomberg, 29-Apr-19

























Fund Returns (GBP):

























Fund Launch Date



13-Dec-10



14-Jul-11



02-Jul-13



13-May-15































DNA



DNA 2



DNA 3



AA4+



























Dividends



74.25%



64.75%



45.20%



33.00%





Capital Gain



-6.00%



-5.75%



-10.50%



1.50%



























Total Return1



81.08%



68.11%



38.61%



39.14%





Annualised Total Return1



7.33%



6.89%



5.76%



8.68%



























FTSE All-Share Annualised Total Return1



7.49%



7.53%



7.31%



6.03%

























Source: Bloomberg, 29-Apr-19



1Since respective Company inception, dividends reinvested

























Conclusion:

Over the last eight years the aircraft investment companies have consistently paid their dividends and have provided high-income to investors with little correlation to other asset classes. Following the recent share price movements all of the vehicles are offering current cash yields of between 8.8-9.5% backed by internationally recognised flag carriers, and they own an asset around which there are still many competing views but of which there will only ever be a finite supply and particularly that has no direct competitor in terms of capacity.

The fund factsheets are available at:

hxxp://www.dnairone.com

hxxp://www.dnairtwo.com

hxxp://www.dnairthree.com

hxxp://www.aa4plus.com

As ever, if you have any further questions or would like to request an update meeting please contact Chris Holland at Nimrod Capital.

Nimrod Capital LLP (‘Nimrod’;) is not a broker, it does not trade with any counterparties, it does not produce investment research nor does it have any paid for research agreements with any counterparties. This communication does not constitute “research̶1; as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority Handbook and may be assessed as a minor non-monetary benefit.

Kind Regards


Marc Gordon

davebowler
03/3/2019
13:18
a1204939?re=62731&ea=252901&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekend&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekend&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Weekend
davebowler
01/3/2019
18:27
Sad article about how German PIs are already losing their shirts when their A380's are sent to the slaughterhouse (Google's translation!)
sf5
19/2/2019
08:31
hTTps://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/should-you-invest-in-aircraft-leasing-funds/?utm_source=Daily+Bulletin&utm_campaign=8f7572b311-Daily_Bulletin_20190218&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_25eff0bb7f-8f7572b311-34956193
davebowler
15/2/2019
13:12
Manager comment;


The DNA companies statements highlight:

There are still several years on the Company's outstanding lease duration and ongoing lease payments which are unaffected by this announcement.
The Company's leases benefit from full life return conditions (and compensation clauses).
That the Asset Manager has been and will continue to be in regular dialogue with Emirates.
The A380 remains intensely popular with passengers.
The Company's debt structure is such that all loan liabilities will be fully paid off at lease end (subject to the continued solvency of Emirates Airlines) at which point the aircraft will be unencumbered.


Doric comments:

"We note that Airbus will be delivering a further 14 A380s to Emirates, and 3 to All Nippon Airways before they close production in 2021. At that time, 251 A380s will have been manufactured. Emirates will have received 123 of these, instead of the 178 (162 firm and 16 options) they had originally ordered. His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group stated, "For us, the A380 is a wonderful aircraft loved by our customers and our crew. It is a differentiator for Emirates. ..... The A380 will remain a pillar of our fleet well into the 2030s."

?We also note that other customers have expressed interest in second-hand A380s, and other airlines dealing with slot-constrained airports may well turn to the pool of A380s. With a finite number of A380s available, this could well prove supportive of the secondary market."



Amedeo comments:

"Amedeo considers today's Airbus announcement to have positive implications for the future values of the installed A380 fleet, particularly those aircraft operated by Emirates.

We estimate that the long-term core Emirates A380 fleet will comprise in excess of 100 A380 units, which we expect will continue to be operated by Emirates for the entirety of their useful economic lives.

We expect the A380 to remain a core aircraft type for Emirates, with higher financial profitability deriving from the longer term use of its A380 fleet. This will act to reduce future capital expenditure, depreciation and rental expenses significantly, whilst retaining the A380's unit cost advantage of scale and unrivalled customer experience."

davebowler
14/2/2019
10:01
Yep, market is finally catching up here.

Just to be clear, of the five listed leasing outfits mentioned above, DPA (DP Aircraft 1) does NOT have any A380s. Their portfolio consists of 4 Boeing 787-8 aircraft which is an aircraft still very much in demand.

pimsim
14/2/2019
09:28
Liberum;

Airbus to end production of A380s

Event

Airbus has announced it will end production of the A380 aircraft following the decision by Emirates to cut its orders for the aircraft from 162 to 123. Airbus stated it had no substantial order backlog as a result and deliveries will stop in 2021.

Emirates is the major customer for the A380. Prior to the cut, it accounted for 162 of the 313 orders for A380 aircraft. 234 A380s have been delivered to date and there are 15 operators of the aircraft. Emirates is buying more of the smaller widebodies (40 A330-900 and 30 A350-900 aircraft), maintaining the market trend towards smaller aircraft than the large widebodies.


Liberum view

The decision will be a major concern for the listed aircraft leasing funds as the Airbus A380 is the dominant aircraft in most of the portfolios. Doric Nimrod Air One, Two and Three have invested solely in the A380. It also accounts for 69% of the acquisition cost of the fleet acquired by Amedeo Air Four Plus.

Overview of listed aircraft leasing funds



Doric Nimrod Air One

Doric Nimrod Air Two

Doric Nimrod Air Three

Amedeo Air Four Plus

DP Aircraft I

Ticker

DNA

DNA2

DNA3

AA4

DPA

Date of Launch

Dec-10

Jul-11

Jul-13

May-15

Oct-13

Market Cap (£m)

48

361

222

681

166













Prem / (Disc) to last published NAV

4.3%

16.9%

42.6%

14.7%

0.5%

Prem / (Disc) to live NAV (FX-adjusted)

-24.3%

-26.6%

-18.8%

-9.0%

0.5%

Target Yield (issue price)

9.00%

9.00%

8.25%

8.25%

9.00%

Dividend Yield (current price)

7.9%

8.6%

8.2%

7.8%

8.8%

Fleet

1 Airbus A380

7 Airbus A380s

4 Airbus A380s

8 Airbus A380s,

2 Boeing 777s,

4 Airbus A350s

4 Boeing 787s

Lessee

Emirates

Emirates

Emirates

Emirates, Etihad,

Thai Airways

Norwegian,

Thai Airways

Year of lease expiry

2022

2023-2024

2025

2026-2030

2025-2026

Return condition

Full-life

Full-life

Full-life

Varies

Full-life

LTV at acquisition

67.8%

63.1%

64.3%

73.0%

61.2%

Amortisation

Full

Full

Full

Partial

Full

FX Risk

Yes - residual value

Yes - residual value

Yes - residual value

Yes - residual value

Yes - USD listing



Source: Liberum estimates, Company data



Residual value uncertainty has always been the key risk for the London-listed funds given their focus on the A380. The A380 is used by a small number of operators and does not have an established secondary market. We believe it is highly unlikely the funds will achieve the latest appraised values at the end of the respective leases. The funds publish the residual value estimates on an annual basis with the next due in the results for the year to March 2019. The appraisers have slightly reduced the original residual value estimates over recent years (DNA -8.2% since acquisition, DNA2 -9.6%, DNA3 -12.8%).

We show the IRR estimates of the funds on the basis of the current price, expected dividend payments over the remaining terms of the lease and the latest appraised values as disclosed by each of the funds. Our stressed case leaves income returns unchanged and assumes a 50% reduction in residual value estimates for the A380s (and leave AA4's other aircraft at the appraised residual value). In our worst case scenario, the income returns are unchanged and reduce the residual values of the A380s to the sum of 10% of acquisition cost and the return condition payments under the respective leases.

davebowler
07/2/2019
12:09
Why would Amedeo still have an outstanding order for 20 A380s when demand is falling away so rapidly. If I recall correctly Emirates reduced their order recently. Surely this cannot be good for the long term prospects for the AA4 share price
joan of arc
07/2/2019
09:32
A good chunk of the NAV here is the implied residual value of the aircraft at the end of the lease period. I recently sold my holding because 8 of the 14 aircraft are A380s and the future for the A380 just doesn't look good.

Following is just the latest in a series of setbacks.....

Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN.AU ) will formally cancel an order for eight more Airbus SE (AIR.FR) A380 superjumbos that the carrier had long signaled it wouldn't introduce into service. The move further shrinks the Airbus backlog of orders for its struggling flagship plane, and comes days after Airbus said it was in talks with Emirates Airline--the biggest A380 buyer--over existing contracts for the plane, raising the prospect that the Dubai-based carrier may trim its commitment. Emirates had no comment.

The cancellation leaves Airbus with a backlog of fewer than 80 of its A380s, most of them with Emirates. That includes an order for 20 A380s from lessor Amedeo, which hasn't placed the planes or fixed a delivery plan. Airbus in December formally erased from its order book an order for 10 A380s from an undisclosed buyer.

Amid weak demand, Airbus has repeatedly slashed production plans for the double-decker plane. It delivered only 12 last year and plans to further lower output to six planes a year.

pimsim
06/2/2019
10:12
...extracts from Aer Cap’s conference call before the new year.


· Mid Life – “I would like to highlight, however, that we do not believe that newer aircraft are always better. It is far more nuanced than that. You have to make sure that you have the new aircraft that your customers want for the next 20 to 25 years, not just the next 8 to 10. We have been very careful with our portfolio management strategy to ensure that we only have the most in-demand aircraft and that age is a secondary consideration. There were plenty of excellent older aircraft just like there were new aircraft that we would not purchase today. The average age of our current technology aircraft is over 10 years and we are very confident that these aircraft will be in demand for the next 12 years, thereby consuming the remaining economic value and reducing any impairment risk.”

· Airline performance – “At a macro level, we see a generally healthy environment for airlines notwithstanding the recent increase in oil prices. We continue to see solid demand for good aircraft. We have now placed over 90% of our order book to 2020. The three major markets of Europe, North America and China continue to perform well.”

· Bankruptcies “I think rising fuel has an impact on all carriers, be they LCCs, full service carriers or charter operators. They have an impact. What I would say though is that the industry is in a better place than it was 10 years ago on a global basis to cope with this. And so far it has to be stressed that we have not seen a significant wave of bankruptcies. We’ve seen small guys. We have not seen an inability to place our airplanes. So the major markets of the world in North America, Europe and domestic China are still extremely strong and we are continuing to place airplanes. The key, Jamie, is to make sure that you have aircraft that your customers want and that’s where the consistent portfolio strategy will pay dividends as well.”

· Bankruptcies (2)

o Kristine Liwag – “Good morning, guys. Gus, following up on your comments that some airlines may struggle this winter, can you quantify how much of your business is at risk and how many airlines and aircraft are in your watch list?”

o Aengus Kelly - “Kristine, nothing out of the ordinary. For the last 12 years it’s averaged 1% on lease revenue. And will it be less than that this year? It’s hard to say. But nothing out of the ordinary, Kristine. I want to stress that.”

· Redeploying aircraft :

o Gary Liebowitz – “And just one more quick one. On average, how many months does it take for you to get your former Air Berlin and Monarch claims back into revenue generating service? And would that be a good revenue number? Is that a good proxy for your Primera narrowbodies?”

o Aengus Kelly – “No, because narrowbodies move much faster, Gary, because you’re not reconfiguring the interiors. In Air Berlin you had quite a number of A330s, so you’re doing more time on reconfiguring those airplanes. But it can be a mix. So some of them move very quickly, some of them took a bit longer, four or five months and one of them took over six months. But on the narrowbodies they tend to move much faster.”

· Airlines extending leases on expiry – “So the extensions have been – the percentage of extensions has been higher, Kristine. I think it’s around 70% now as we look at it and previously had been closer to 50%. So we have seen that going up over the last year or two.”

davebowler
09/3/2018
20:50
These are blissfully unmoved after the panic in Prefs today.
davebowler
18/1/2018
18:47
Good news from Emirates, I think. Could be doubled-edged. Encouraging they still have faith in the big bird but does it shorten the useful life of the existing aircraft in the four companies?
riff1954
08/1/2018
17:32
Interesting post. Do Jefferies have a business relationship with Nimrod/Amedeo? Let's hope other parties take the same view as Dna3 in particular seems to have been in the doldrums since Singapore returned one of their 380s.
riff1954
Chat Pages: Latest  7  6  5  4  3  2  1

Your Recent History

Delayed Upgrade Clock