Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[robizm] 04/5/2020 16:47

This is getting cheaper everyday. It all depends on emirates and Thai airlines now.

[irishmatt] 29/4/2020 19:41

Aercap in US having a very good day today, we might get a read across at some point

[fram7] 27/4/2020 16:15

they will only show amounts over a certifying threshold not if they are sold gradually

[irishmatt] 27/4/2020 15:58

RNS shows it's been invesco though

[fram7] 27/4/2020 15:46

several retails funds have Amedeo in their portfolio. i.e Royal London high yield fixed income fund had 4%. Fund manager might decide to sell due to regulatory or marketing reasons.

[irishmatt] 27/4/2020 15:29

So it's been invesco selling down, assuming it's to meet fund redemptions or because of Barnett being replaced

[fram7] 23/4/2020 22:25

They should be plenty of cash to survive. clearly airlines will suffer for a bit longer but both Emirates and Thai are not going bust any time soon and I expect them to keep paying the lease. Longer term this crisis might reduce the second hand value of planes but Amedeo has nothing coming up any time soon. Potentially low oil prices could make the A380 more valuable. I am still a buyer of Amedeo. Though I need to investigate the condition of the contract, I do not know if Amedeo's leases allow payment holidays (I do not think so)or to return planes early with the payment of a penalty. I have contact with the Airbus team that sells A380. They know Amedeo well and I a sure will be able to help. I will share what I learn here.

[robizm] 23/4/2020 20:58

Huge volume today and looks like a lot of sells. They have plenty of cash to see them through to next year though.

[robizm] 17/4/2020 11:37

I agree re the dna and they are still paying dividends as well. I do have some dna1 as debt is low.

[irishmatt] 17/4/2020 11:06

Emirates isn't easyJet, planes still flying (freight) and tentatively starting to schedule again. Agree the cash means nothing if airlines all implode but I would rather than a healthy cash balance than not (like the DNAs)

[robizm] 17/4/2020 10:58

You are forgetting the debt. These are priced to fail and everything depends on covid 19. Airlines loosing millions weekly whilst this drags on and not sure how long they can survive without flying. Easy jet are loosing huge amounts and you would think they would be bankrupt if planes not flying again by the end of the year along with most other airlines. Amedeo would then have worthless planes and high debt. I cannot see planes flying in June but hope so.

[irishmatt] 16/4/2020 22:21

There was already £110m in cash on the balance sheet (as at end Sept 19) before the planes being sold to Etihad so it's got more like 35p per share in cash (if not more from retained earnings since September including the unpaid dividend monies). Seems very undervalued to me even if the lease agreements get restructured

[mokhan2] 16/4/2020 21:51

They will need to come to an arrangement with Emirates, Thai and their lenders first. Then we will hear on their plans for the sale proceeds. It currently makes up 20p per share of their NAV. Meaning their equity in the remaining 12 aircrafts is currently valued at 98M or on average 8M per aircraft. Crazy times.

[robizm] 06/4/2020 08:15

The airline industry is on its knees. No income and no timeframe when things will get back to normal. They have a lot of borrowing so it makes sense to preserve cash until the situation is clearer for long term survival.

[fangpima] 06/4/2020 07:20

I understand suspending distribution due to uncertainty. But no updated mention of consideration of what may happen to proceeds received from the end February sale...why not?

[davebowler] 03/4/2020 09:11

Stifel;
Aviation Funds - state government support for Emirates, Thai and Norwegian

Over the past few weeks, there have been announcements from Emirates, Thai Airways and Norwegian Air Shuttle that there will be some form of support provided to help them weather the current storm. An imminent default looks unlikely, but support is not unlimited and conditions will be attached. It would not surprise us if there is a renewed push to reduce costs through some form of grace period or a restructuring of fleet sizes once the dust settles. However, much uncertainty exists as normal passenger flight schedules will take time to recover so as not to reignite another wave of infections. (Analyst: Sachin Saggar).

[fram7] 01/4/2020 15:38

I know. The good news is that Thai cannot just stop paying....unless they want to go bankrupt. The situation is so bad that there might be some ad hoc agreements but in my opinion if companies will start not paying amedeo, lenders, banks will default....in my experience interest payment holidays never works, the

[robizm] 01/4/2020 12:09

Thai airways have already made a request for assistance about lease payments. If I was in charge I would stop dividends and reduce lease payments to just cover the debt payments for a year.

[fram7] 01/4/2020 11:05

I think this is great news! lets see if the same will happen to Thai. Personally I think many airlines will be saved by Governments around the world. I feel the risk of governments imposing stop to lease payment is minimal.

[langland] 01/4/2020 08:04

Saw this link on another thread......hopefully will aid sentiment.

[robizm] 26/3/2020 14:41

I bought in at 34p today. Hopefully won’t regret it.

[robizm] 19/3/2020 06:17

I will try and buy some in the 20p to 25p range. Hopefully will pay debt down with the money from the planes sold.

[fram7] 17/3/2020 21:00

@ROBIZM. current price is 34-39....cannot get lower unless it goes bankrupt. Either it will recover from current level or will go bankrupt and recovery will be very low. I need to speak with some experts to understand the lease clauses in this industry. I doubt they allow for interest payment holidays. If anything is agreed is due to the extraordinary events we are facing.
I personally feel it will get worse before it will get better in the world but eventually flights will go back to normal and with low oil prices to stay and delays in the production of new planes the A380 could have a serious revival.

[robizm] 17/3/2020 20:01

The million dollar question is will they get paid? They have some hefty loans. Maybe cancel dividend and pay down debt. I would buy at a lower price as risk has increased.