Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[pensionplanner] 11/12/2024 12:18

Palisz: Your comment makes no sense "If IG made money in this stock they would not be only allowing closing trades"

By only allowing closing deals it effectively prevents anyone who had a position from maintaining that position, so you get a market where someone decides there is too much on the long side, you know their stop positions, and low and behold the share price drops and knocks many out, and in so doing causes a cascade of sells knocking the share price further....and all that and you prevent opening deals.?

That's not about not making money, its about making it.

[mold breaker] 11/12/2024 11:07

Gold nearly back to $2700…

[palisz] 11/12/2024 10:12

Agreed.

Seller back with another 5k, isn't likely IG as they have direct access and trades would be marked AT
Someone needs cash for Christmas or maybe margined called and needs to put up cash.

[tim000] 11/12/2024 10:03

The point that Altyn is an unloved stock….If you are a value investor then by definition you are swimming against the tide and you will need to be patient as you await the market to catch on. That’s stating the obvious wrt Altyn. However, we know the Directors want to build a mid-tier gold producer as quickly as is prudent and will pay dividends in due course. I simply don’t believe the market will continue to misprice the stock once these two goals are achieved.

[palisz] 11/12/2024 09:57

If IG made money in this stock they would not be only allowing closing trades.
They only do this when they want out! To stop trading it permanently.
The trader has clearly not been profitable here.
I agree the market is rife with manipulation, but this is not where it happens, too small for anyone to be bothered.

[tim000] 11/12/2024 09:53

I think we can be fairly confident that ethics are poor in parts of the financial services industry and that misbehavior in search of profits and virtue signalling is common. For example, bonus structures incentivise staff to prioritise short term profits. Alison Rose received very high remuneration for highly questionable performance. So I agree with you PP. But we don’t have any hard evidence that IG is distorting Altyn’s share price.

[palisz] 11/12/2024 09:47

IG trade over 17000 instruments, they are really not going to waste 1 minute trying to screw a few thousand in this illiquid stock, They trade where they have volume, an axe, ie on going business, and where the liquidity lets them play.. like any market participant. In ALTN they are providing a service and reap holding charges and commissions only
Conspiracy theories here are just that.. bs. 100% fact!

[pensionplanner] 11/12/2024 09:38

I respectfully disagree. Where there is ample opportunity for manipulation it inevitably occurs. A spread company knows exactly their exposure and more importantly the exposure of its clients including stop positions. It’s like playing poker with someone who has unlimited funds and who doesn’t have to pay to see your hand as they know it already

[cyberbub] 11/12/2024 09:37

I struggle to understand why anyone would spread bet such an illiquid share... I suppose it might not be a huge position, £20k leveraged 5x at 200p is 50000 shares... The sells we've been seeing are mostly just 1k-2k pushing the share price down... Although an occasional 5k like this morning...

[palisz] 11/12/2024 09:28

Lastly ( probably lol) spread bet positions cost daily holding fees, if a stock goes quiet or drifts, not only do you have to cover losses daily, but the holding costs as well. Ahead of news this stock is often weak for this reason as the wait can stretch out a bit!

[palisz] 11/12/2024 09:23

If IG is only allowing closing trades I would regard this as good news longer term for this stock, and would explain the selling pressure. Normally I'd be a fan of cfd's as they add liquidity, but in a stock so tightly held it just adds untradeable volatility. cfd holders are by definition weak holders and the first to flip and panic out in any weakness. Margin calls have that effect.

[researchcentre123] 11/12/2024 09:19

Very interesting thank you. I don't think I'd want to spread bet on this but if that's why it's moving like this it makes sense. You really can't have a long-term view if you're trading on 15% margin.... Louie would never get to eat a big Mac again on the slightest down movement. But if that's what's behind it all then I suppose on such a thinly traded stock there will be real swings.

[tim000] 11/12/2024 09:11

Thanks, good to know.

[palisz] 11/12/2024 08:53

ok...Spread betting teach in.
IG are one of the only major spread better who still allow trading in ALTN to my knowledge.
CMC now have a minimum £150m mkt cap before they intro a new co.
IG does not trade against customers positions, only when they have to buy or sell as a hedge. However, they do let customers trade on generous margin as low as 15%. If a customer runs out of margin for any reason ( ALTN or any other bad position in a customers portfolio) they are completely closed out. That is IG takes all the positions and literally sells asap. They do try to do so with best execution, but clearly can damage the price. They want to limit losses!
They do not deliberately try to trigger close outs.
The reason IG is not allowing new positions is because the stock is so difficult to trade and spreads are often so wide. It may also be because they have too much exposure, that is too many positions resulting in a notifiable position if they get longer.
How do I know? I was part of a team who created cfd's in 1991 and IG was a client!
Facts!

[highly geared] 11/12/2024 08:48

The chart has a H&S which is typically not good ( in the short term). The issue with Altyn has always been the scant news flow and its lack lustre presentation of news on an infrequent basis.

Logically, based on its reserves and POG it should be a no brainer but the market doesn’t want to value it as such.

[researchcentre123] 11/12/2024 08:48

The share price has been disconnected from the business for a long time. Even the recent rise was no more than catching up with the gold price. This is a business that it seems the outside world looks at and says "ooo, Kazakhstan, don't they speak Russian there? Don't like the sound of that....." My view is simple. They have an average return on equity of around 30% which is phenomenal. Their turnover will be jumping shortly and they have demonstrated tremendous cost effectiveness and ability to overcome issues. Over time, this sort of success will provide the PR that can't be ignored even if the country name ends in ....stan

[cyberbub] 11/12/2024 08:33

If it gets to 150p I think a lot of people will be backing up the truck... Would be a forward p/e of 1... Which even for Kazakhstan is ludicrous for a profitable main market listed company... Even if you use an EV basis it would still be a p/e of 2...

[tightfist] 11/12/2024 08:25

The business prospects seems to be becoming completely disconnected from the chart - 150p soon anyone?!

[pensionplanner] 11/12/2024 08:19

Tim: Agree, but what do you expect from the FCA reincarnated from the FSA so widely discredited and where they are in the main comprised of City Boys protecting .....City Boys

[excellance] 10/12/2024 19:36

It's the same very small group of American bankers that pay the politicians to regulate them.

[tim000] 10/12/2024 17:57

Thanks PP, though I don’t find the FCA’s surveillance as very convincing. They pretty much dismissed the debanking issue, since when the political dimension of debanking has been widely exposed in the US. I’ve no reason for believing that the US and UK authorities act entirely independently from each other. In general, there’s plenty of evidence that the two countries coordinate regulation.

[excellance] 10/12/2024 17:50

It is a known fact that all institutions great and small play both sides of the book, and they get away with it by justifying their positions on different time frames. Was it MS who famously told their clients to sell gold while buying it themselves?

[tim000] 10/12/2024 16:50

I think stop losses are known to MMs as well as spread betting companies. So there are profits to be made by forcing the price down temporarily; MMs pick up stock cheaply should they be short. Spread bettors are meant to make profits from margins, ie they buy stock from MMs if their clients go long. But I’m sure some spread betting companies don’t do that and take the risk on their own book. As a large mkt participant dealing in illiquid stocks, they can easily manipulate the market prices. Some of you might remember Burford launched a case in the courts against the short specialist muddy waters, claiming they were manipulating the Burford share price downward. But they lost the case. The regulator doesn’t seem to care in the slightest about price manipulation by hedge funds etc.

[tim000] 10/12/2024 16:38

Imv MMs can cease trading either because they have an unbalanced book or because they expect news and rapid price changes, and don’t want to be exposed to heavy one-sided trading. I guess the same is true of spread betting companies. The two types of business are not a million miles apart.