Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[sloppyg] 10/11/2019 19:46

"Risky for sure" ........interestingly how much risk is there actually at these levels ?

[excellance] 10/11/2019 19:16

Well, I'm banking on it, one man's pleasure is another man's pain, or in this case the holders of DB investments.

The DB situation is a fantastic opportunity at a good time for potential ALTN investors like me and I've taken full advantage for a long term investment.

I don't like "trading" shares, prefer buy and hold situations, and this is as good as they get despite lack of recent company information.

Risky for sure but very exciting potential in a fairly short time of just 2 or 3 years!

[excellance] 10/11/2019 17:45

The July number was encouraging and I expect a mean average of 30k pcm and more as the mine development progresses.

We know they've been struggling on with old equipment processing low grade ore while carving out the mine, and I think they did this because they knew this phase would be marginally profitable at best so did it on a tight budget.

It appears they are now ready to ramp up and the loan is clear indication of a significant business plan to manage debt repayment.

I hope the loan is managed adequately and there's no dirty tricks to dilute the shares further, I don't think there will be...

Looking good for sustainable growth and significant profit by early next year!

[roguetreader] 10/11/2019 11:12

Chip / Stonefold
again thanks for posts. It would explain why the share price has moved down from the 0.75 to the 0.5 range since the positive Financing update. I was expecting the share price to move to the 1.5 range as a minimum once the Finance update was received and was somewhat surprised by the fall back to current levels. If, this overhang does disappear over the next few months then negative news apart the risk reward says to me an initial re-rating to around 1.5 as a minimum is a good probability in the medium term.
RT

[chipperfrd] 10/11/2019 10:34

Stonefold,

I am checking the trades data on SharePad and although most days are identical to ADVFN there is also some additional info regarding trades done in USD and also later cancellations.

I will make a copy of my (rather large) sheet and then work through amending i.a.c. with the SharePad amendments to find the overall outcome.

However, given the fine weather and my need to finish building a 'messy kitchen' for a Grandson, I will probably get on with it tomorrow.

[chipperfrd] 10/11/2019 09:03

Hi RT, I used the daily .csv files from this site.

I get the same data from Sharescope but not the complete historical record (unless I had Sharescope open all day) and not in an easily downloadable form into Excel as is available from ADVFN.

[roguetreader] 10/11/2019 08:34

Cheers Chip, very interesting, I'm assuming you've sourced your data from Sharescope to get your analysis?
RT

[glavey] 10/11/2019 04:42

"'Altyn' was a Russian currency."



Tin hat anyone?

[chipperfrd] 09/11/2019 17:16

That is my assumption. We should start to see the bid rising as normal supply & demand factors come into play and we finally get away from the ridiculous spread that we have had to put up with for so long.

[chipperfrd] 09/11/2019 16:40

In order to try and put the ALTN share trading issue to bed I have down-loaded all the daily trade data (csv files) in order to build a complete sheet of trades so far this year.

Here is the monthly record of 'O' trades rounded to millions of shares:

January
Buys 0.357, Sells 0.187, Balance = +0.169

February
Buys 2.2, Sells 1.1, Balance = +1.0

March
Buys 20.6, Sells 7.6, Balance = +12.9

April
Buys 18.0, Sells 186.8, Balance = -168.7

May
Buys 11.8, Sells 165.1, Balance = -153.3

June
Buys 26.5, Sells 19.2, Balance = +7.2

July
Buys 147.0, Sells 345.5, Balance = -198.4

August
Buys 54.5, Sells 33.4, Balance = +21.0

September
Buys 162.4, Sells 54.4, Balance = +107.9

October
Buys 120.4, Sells 62.5, Balance = +57.9

November (up to close on 8th)
Buys 18.3, Sells 6.2, Balance = +12.1

The year-to-date 'O' trade balance is -300.1 million. However, the situation of the AT trades (275.6m) must also be addressed. If one works on the assumption that these may have largely been sales by the broker/dealers into the market then the current overhang sitting with the market makers has shrunk to c. -24.4m, so not too bad. However, that is a big 'IF' and the actual overhang may still be somewhere between -24.4 and -300.1m shares.

Worth noting that Out-of-Hours trades were large!
Some 480.6m Sells were reported against 161.0 Buys. These were all reported before 08:00 or after 16:30. Some were as late as 19:00!

YTD average price paid for Buys was 0.57p against 0.434p for Sells - so a tidy average margin of 31% for the market makers!

Overall there has been 682 reported Sells at an average size of 1.294m against 1,202 Buys at an average size of 0.484m.
There has also been 641 AT/UT at an average size of 0.43m and average price of 0.575p

Chip

[jc2706] 08/11/2019 13:44

The initial targets were for 35-40k tonnes per month and then 60-70k tonnes per month. The highest of these (70k tonnes) is enough to push the mill to full capacity. To reach the ultimate production target of 100k oz will require expansion of the processing plant (although not by a great deal).

It should be said that the planned increase was due to come in at the end of Q2. Instead we have been informed that July saw 28k or 29k tonnes of ore mined (depending on the section of the half year report!). Whether the 40k tonnes was a figure to be ramped up to is unclear but I suspect it was as there is some suggestion in the final results that the new equipment "alongside other developmental work" will produce a 40k tonnes per month run rate in 2019. We won't know whether this has been achieved until the deign to inform us.

[excellance] 08/11/2019 12:59

What are "planned targets" in this context?

[excellance] 08/11/2019 12:58

Underground machinery delivery

In March 2019, the company’s major shareholder, African Resources Limited committed to providing 400m KZT (USD 1.1m) unsecured loan towards the acquisition of underground equipment with the intention to further boost the production.

As a result, the company purchased the following new machinery:

- CAT R1300G loading and hauling machine with a bucket capacity of 3.1 m3 from CAT Kazakhstan;

- TN-430 underground dump truck with a lifting capacity of 30 ton from Sandvik Kazakhstan.

The equipment complements the existing fleet of underground equipment which in summary is:

- Two TN-430 dump trucks and one Sandvik TN-320 dump truck;

- Two CAT R1300G loading and haulage machines.

The new equipment will be under warranty and serviced by the official dealers of CAT and Sandvic during the entire period of operation.

The additional equipment will allow the Company to increase production to its planned targets.

[excellance] 08/11/2019 10:34

I'm hoping our loan leads to significant production increase leading to self financing of mine development and the promise of a dividend.

[tightfist] 08/11/2019 08:50

Hi. I think we need to just accept that daily trade volume reporting is plain weird, difficult to interpret and/or IMO being window-dressed to mislead us..I will now look to the weekly chart to sense if/when a bottom goes in - and the SEC DWS quarterly portfolio declarations, although these seem to be 8 weeks in arrears, if they happen at all!.The link posted recently covered what seemed like turmoil inside DB/DWS and my hunch is that Altyn repositioning is a sideshow consequence of some or all of: "streamlining", "rationalisation", New Broom syndrome, Kitchen Sinking behaviour!.Cheers, tightfist

[buoycat] 07/11/2019 22:33

Excellence why would the purchase of £150 have any impact on share price? Costs may be zero if buyer has free trades.

[excellance] 07/11/2019 18:47

Yeah...we know there's a whale selling in the form of DB funds, and probably another whale buying off market, and this is distorting normal trading while it gets processed...at least that's my theory.

[block4gooner] 07/11/2019 17:43

22% spreadReally?

[jc2706] 07/11/2019 17:37

True. But I don't recall the volumes being particularly high earlier this year and I would be amazed if the market makers had pretty much amassed all of the available shares not held by African Resources.

A conundrum.

[tightfist] 07/11/2019 17:27

And delayed (reported) trades have been rife over the last couple of months......

[jc2706] 07/11/2019 17:19

Interesting. Just did a quick review of the data on the London Stock Exchange and the volume is inconsistent with the trades in a very specific way which I would describe as - it doesn't include after market or delayed trades!

[jc2706] 07/11/2019 17:09

I would add that the net sales figures you quote for April, May and July account for virtually ALL of the shares that are not in the hands of African Resources.

[jc2706] 07/11/2019 17:05

Where are you getting these figures from chipperfrd? The information I have says the total volume for those days is:

15th 5.9m at 0.442
16th 10.9m at 0.459
17th 6.05m at 0.462
18th 10.8m at 0.468
19th 17.5m at 0.455