Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[jc2706] 23/10/2019 11:43

Which bodes well moving forwards but for my own calculations I prefer to be ultra cautious. I find it helps for companies such as Altyn otherwise you can get carried away on what might be and forget what has been. I doubt whether we will find out any time soon as I suspect that they will overlook the obvious marketing benefits of releasing improving production numbers.

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 19/10/2019 09:45

They have access to ore body 11 at c 3.4 g/t

2019 grade is expected to average 2.41g/t with a range of a high 3.43g/t for ore body 11 to a low of 2.01 for ore bodies 3-8.

[jc2706] 18/10/2019 14:36

homebrewruss,

Yes, there is always the chance that they will improve on the July figures with the near term target of 40k tonnes per month. I thought that it was a little ambitious to suggest that this year but should be possible (and more) next year should the debt be appropriately utilised.

[leewink1] 18/10/2019 11:30

PMSL, another day wasted then Jammy, you really are the star here, have a good day then.

[homebrewruss] 18/10/2019 11:02

Also from the half year report:
'As a number of ore bodies are ready for production the additional equipment purchased recently will result in increasing production in H2 2019 and going forward'

I don't know if this means just to 29,000 per month (which was in the previous line of the report) or over and above that level in H2 - we can hope..

[jammydodger1] 18/10/2019 10:42

Donkey share this

[jc2706] 18/10/2019 09:41

My base line for H2 is approx. 8.8k oz considering the increased haulage. I have used the following:

1. 28k tonnes a month (the RNS was inconsistent in mentioning 28k and 29k tonnes of ore so I went for the lower)
2. Grade of 2g/t (about average for the last 2-3 years).
3. Recovery of 81.53% (the same as H1)

Based on this and using an average gold price of $1450/oz I get revenues of $12.77m. I do not have an up to date financial model so cannot say how this will translate into EBITDA/operating profit/cash generation. However, this is an uplift of $5.5m from H1 when all of those KPIs were positive so I would expect a significant improvement.

I could be somewhat more optimistic by using the following:

1. 29k tonnes a month
2. Grade of 2.25g/t (the ore bodies they are developing have a higher grade).
3. Recovery of 83.23% (the same as 2018)
4. Average gold price $1500/oz (Q3 was higher, Q4 projected to be lower)

This would result in production for H2 of about 10.5k oz and revenue of $15.75m, an increase of $8.5m on H1.

I do not expect the outcome to be as high as the more optimistic forecast. If I had to go with a number I would go with the following most likely outcome:

1. 28k tonnes a month
2. Grade of 2.1g/t (mix of higher and lower grade ore)
3. Recovery of 83% (the same as H1)
4. Average gold price $1475/oz (allows for a fall this quarter)

This would result in production for H2 of about 9.4k oz and revenue of $13.86m, an increase of $6.6m on H1.

[homebrewruss] 18/10/2019 08:55

Steve, I'm hoping they can continue (and improve upon) the production from July.
So 29,000 (tonnes ore) X 6 (months) X 2 (grammes per tonne) X .83 (recovery factor) / 31 (convert to oz) = 9317 ounces for H2.

Lots of unknowns though. Has monthly production increased (or decreased) further, will the ramp up involve any downtime, does colder weather affect the gold recovery?

[stevea171] 18/10/2019 08:17

TF and homebrew. Thanks for your comments on the map. I think we can say that Seki is indeed in the top left of the T-S map on the company's new web site.

What level of production are we expecting for Q3 and Q4?

If a slide presentation is put together to tie together plans, production and exploration I suppose that might include a better map as well. When was the last presentation?

[homebrewruss] 17/10/2019 14:01

stevea, I was looking at this myself the other day and couldn't work it out as I was looking for the Seki red dot on the larger map but looking again with fresh eyes I think you must be right and the red dot (and therefore Sekisovskye) is on the top left tip of the smaller (and larger) maps.

[tightfist] 17/10/2019 14:01

Hmm, I see what you mean. T-S seems to be about 15km East-West and 20km North-South. Seki is in the NW corner and the inset is about 2x. After that it all gets a little hazy.... will be better when I can look on a larger screen.Have ever tried any contact with the London office - any success? They (or their PR folk) must surely be going to play a bigger part in promoting the company?Cheers, Roger

[tightfist] 17/10/2019 13:49

Spending the loan of $17m will keep them busy for a while!

[jammydodger1] 17/10/2019 13:46

We could do with a low placing this will come soon

[stevea171] 17/10/2019 11:53

We could do with a decent map of Teren-Sai. The map on the new company web site is midget sized with lines all over and detail that is largely meaningless.



Am I right in thinking that Seki mine and processing plant are in the top left corner of the main map (Teren-Sai) and this area is repeated in the second map of postage stamp size?

Seki is said to be adjacent to the 200 sq km of Teren-Sai so this would fit that description with T-S extending in 3 directions - N,E, and S from Seki.
If this is the only map provided, where are the 15 targets mentioned in the CPR released this week and where is Area No 2 on the map, and where are the 2 of the 4 breccia bodies in Area 2 that are the subject of this new resource definition?

If Altyn were to provide a decent map with this required information it would be possible to see the proximity of Area 2 to Seki and what roads, towns exist in the area. This would be of use if open pit mining were to commence at Area 2 with the ore delivered to the Seki mill.

[kcowe] 17/10/2019 10:23

nice price range to accumulate , dirt cheap company .

[jc2706] 16/10/2019 15:55

Ok great. Thanks chipperfrd. Accumulation it is!

[chipperfrd] 16/10/2019 14:07

Sorry JC.

I understand what you mean.

It would have taken an inordinate amount of time to factor in all the smaller trades and it was relatively easy to estimate the relevance and daily balance without doing so. I really doubt that the effort would have changed the overall figures beyond the margin of error that I was aiming for as the block trades were so large. Also, much of the daily totals included 'AT' trades which I had already counted. So I really just needed to scan for 'O' trades that could meaningfully move the dial.
Chip

[jc2706] 16/10/2019 13:39

Sorry, you mistake me.

I meant that the sells generally being a small number of large blocks and the buys a larger number of smaller blocks.

[chipperfrd] 16/10/2019 13:16

JC

The net balance of 'O' trades by month was as follows:

Jan & Feb trivial.
March +11.2m
April -186.8m
May -157.8m
June +4.9m
July -317.2m
August +37.1m
Sept +54.7m
Oct +48.9m

In contrast to your impression, I found Aug - Oct overwhelmingly net positive re buys to sells.

[jc2706] 16/10/2019 13:03

Interesting. Thanks.

One point on this methodology for 'O' trades, in the circumstance that you have a few larger sellers and more smaller buyers, you would catch the former but not the latter. Did you get any impression whilst doing this that we were seeing larger sells and smaller buys? The last few weeks have suggested so to me but I couldn't guarantee it. I confess that I am struggling with a market maker running such an unbalanced book on a small gold miner!