Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[louie2010] 13/8/2024 16:52

I think the day I need advice from any of you be day Iam no longer here your a clown like fat fukker excellent, your a narcissist but I won't charge you for consultation either as your near end of your time.

[pensionplanner] 13/8/2024 16:03

Louie. Thank you for the confirmation. Your best interests at heart, and of course I haven't charged you even a consultancy fee. Best regards

[louie2010] 13/8/2024 15:39

New record high is therefore only a matter of time"The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculation about upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are providing a tailwind, even though these have recently been scaled back somewhat. According to Fed Funds Futures, however, a rate cut of 50 basis points in September is still priced in at around 50%. The US inflation data due tomorrow may raise expectations again, which could give the Gold price a further tailwind.""A new record high is therefore only a matter of time. The backdrop to the price slide a week ago, however, remains unclear. The CFTC data published on Friday did not show the expected strong reduction in speculative (net) long positions in the week ending August 6. ETFs do not serve as an explanation either."

[louie2010] 13/8/2024 14:58

Fuk u old codger

[pensionplanner] 13/8/2024 14:07

Out of genuine concern Louie the symptoms you demonstrate on this bb suggest you may be suffering from the condition Coprolalia. It may be worth seeking professional help. Good luck.

[excellance] 13/8/2024 12:19

The only fans you have are to blow the pong away.

[king suarez] 13/8/2024 00:03

He's your alter ego on the LSE site, Louie, remember?

[louie2010] 12/8/2024 23:50

Who's Buster hog doing never heard of him you must be dreaming of beach

[excellance] 12/8/2024 22:13

Indeed. I've said loads of times that this company is developing very prudently and organically mostly financed by production and with modest loans.

My point was that we fixed out capex costs before the inflationary spike, and yes I did wonder if it is too good to be true regarding any surprises.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 22:07

I knew you were saying ALTN is not another HZM, but I did get the impression you were unsure if ALTN had tied down its capex budget. Imho, cost inflation for large mining projects is project-specific, not a general issue covering all projects in all jurisdictions. For ALTN, it seems a non issue altogether. The project is reported to be on time (Q3) and on budget.

[excellance] 12/8/2024 21:47

I'm not saying that ALTN is another HZM, I'm saying it isn't.

HZM revised their costs, the supplier got cold feet, another supplier was need plus half a billion dollars. The FCO resigned, Jeremy tried to get funding but the senior lender saw better value in foreclosure. It wasn't tweaking the mine plan that bankrupted them, it was inexperienced executive team.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 21:01

I agree with Spike, HZM was a case of inadequate management for a complex and excessively large project for a small company with no revenues. There’s no read across to ALTN.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 20:55

ALTN has already answered your questions, excellance. See the 2023 AR. Budgeted capex in 2024 on the new plant is a mere $4-5 mn. Everything else was already spent last year.

[spike501] 12/8/2024 20:51

HZM wasn't much to do with inflation and it wasn't due to a supplier pulling out. They messed up their mine design and the revisions increased CAPEX requirements by about 40% and pushed time to cashflow out by 12 months. They had to find hundreds of millions more and unsurprisingly couldn't do it.

[excellance] 12/8/2024 20:32

ALTYN sourced the equipment before the inflationary spike, but we don't know how much of the capex was fixed or if suppliers whacked their prices up.

Last year HZM of Brazil got totally screwed when a major supplier pulled out and capex costs increased 50% bankrupting the company.

These are risky times for anyone borrowing cash for capex, but I think ALTYN may have been ahead of the game and have moved to develop at exactly the right time.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 20:22

Compared with the 2023 average, the current gold price expressed in tenge is up 32%. Excellent time to be ramping up production by over 80%! Q4 run rate for revenue expressed in tenge could be up about 140% compared with 2023.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 14:49

Current daily increase in pog of nearly 1% worth about 3p per share post-tax on 2025 revenues and profits - enough for a 2% dividend at the current share price.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 09:07

Differences in the 2024 forecasts of KS and myself are mostly on the costs side, with KS prudently allowing for more inflation. It’s true there has been very high cost inflation for ALTN in the last couple of years. But my post shows that might be at least partly due to exceptionals, and that the underlying business might have remained extremely cost competitive compared with ALTN’s international competitors. As I say, the interims will be interesting.

[tim000] 12/8/2024 08:57

It will be interesting to see whether they have been able to offset domestic inflationary pressure through productivity improvements. The Kazakh cement producer STCM reported inflation falling sharply in H1, albeit still high at ca 8%. Of course the tenge has fallen 5% against the US$ in recent months, which will help in H2. And there shouldn’t be any significant increase in depreciation charges this year. In the notes to the 2023 Annual Report, cost of sales of $41mn included an exceptional increase of $6mn (to $13.6mn) for increased cost of inventories recognised as an expense. There are no details given on explaining this, but it could be increased purchases of spare parts for machinery (including the new processing plant equipment) expensed to the P/L account. I would hope this would not increase again this year, and might even unwind somewhat if the parts remain unused. Depreciation was a further $7mn. So you can see that half of the cost of sales were expenses for which there is no strong a priori reason for thinking inflation will increase those costs in the current year. At the AGM, Aidar said he expected unit costs to be lower. These (possibly exceptional) costs in 2023 might be part of the reason why he thinks that?