Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[excellance] 12/8/2024 01:00

He said $30m you clown.

[excellance] 12/8/2024 00:59

It's too complicated for Louise.

[louie2010] 11/8/2024 23:59

Fat fukker asrehole bandit

[king suarez] 11/8/2024 21:20

I've given my estimate for FY 2024 in post 12403.

[tim000] 11/8/2024 19:41

I haven’t made any estimates for this year, we’ll obviously have a better idea for this year and next once the interims are published. Back of the envelope though, revenues should be about $98mn, cos say $44mn and G&A, finance etc $13mn, so PBT of $40mn ish and ca £25mn sterling post-tax??

[excellance] 11/8/2024 19:13

So we're banking on profit of $50m for fy 2024?

[tim000] 11/8/2024 14:06

I divide costs by ounces of gold sold, just as revenues per oz would include silver credits etc. But I don’t think the credits are material.

[pensionplanner] 11/8/2024 13:31

tim000. in calculating the $1,254 per oz solid, does that account for the byproducts?

[dofmeister] 10/8/2024 19:53

Have to agree with Louie on this one....🤣

[trader465] 10/8/2024 17:51

“economies of scale, mitigated by inflation”

I would have said: “inflation mitigated by economies of scale”

[excellance] 10/8/2024 11:22

Operating costs of Seki should come back down considerably due to economies of scale, tempered by inflation.

We also now have costs associated with TS exploration and development if they are serious about producing updated CPR reports and cutting open pits in the next 18 months.

Then there's the new opportunities, whatever they may be, and any due diligence required for that.

And finally corporate costs, debt management, fees etc.

Risks include currency FX fluctuations, energy costs and the price of gold.

We also have single asset risk, any stoppage costs us dearly.

We can estimate a value for Seki given known metrics and peer comparisons, but that won't be reflected in the share price until we see Seki delivery, we see the plan for TS, and we see the details of other opportunities and any associated corporate actions or restructuring.

A busy year ahead...

[tim000] 10/8/2024 10:16

Allowing for depreciation is all very well, but the plant has a long life beyond the horizon of most investors. As we know, private equity is more concerned with cash-flow measures of profits. For a growing business such as ALTN, which is cash constrained (ie it requires debt finance to meet all its desired capex), operating cash flow net of tax is probably the most important metric at the moment. I imagine the new processing plant has pretty low additional cash operating costs compared with the current setup, though I accept they need to increase mining rates as well.

[tim000] 10/8/2024 09:54

I have allowed for some cost inflation, incl depreciation, but maybe not enough. I’ve increased unit costs from $680/oz to ca $730/oz. At $730/oz, cos increases to $44mn. Equally I haven’t allowed for any gold price inflation or any upside on production, or any offsets to the tax bill from higher investment, or further tenge depreciation.

[spike501] 10/8/2024 09:38

Tim I think you are being a bit optimistic that cost of sales are unchanged.

The commissioning of the new plant will activate depreciation on that investment so depreciation will likely increase and as that is likely dollar based so unimpacted by FX change.

There will also almost certainly be a marginal cost for production as well - they have some ore in inventory that they can work through for a few months but to fully utilize the expanded plant capacity they have to further increase mining by early next year.

I think next year if they can achieve cash costs of production of $1000 and accounting cost of production of $1200 that would be good going.

Post tax profits of $50-60million.

[king suarez] 10/8/2024 09:36

Ah yes, thanks. Personally I think costs will rise a bit more due to higher inflation and depreciation likely increase a bit as well with higher production rates?

Still, 2025 figures ought to be highly impressive so if gold price remains buyoant we should be see a big uplfit in valuation.

[tim000] 10/8/2024 09:21

Have done KS. See the deductions moving from gross profit to PBT.

[king suarez] 10/8/2024 09:18

Tim - you need to include administrative and financing costs in those figures as well? See my post?

[tim000] 10/8/2024 09:00

My numbers broadly corroborate dofmeister’s post 12400. Altyn doesn’t seem to have many deferred tax assets to utilize, but the Kazakh corporate tax rate is only 20%. So my estimate of post-tax profits for 2025 is also about $70mn, but based on a higher pog.

[tim000] 10/8/2024 08:50

I’ve looked again at the numbers for ALTN’s unit costs. 2023 cost of sales (accruals, incl depn) was $41mn, or $1254 per oz sold. $41mn was ca 18.75 bn tenge. Assume cost inflation this year of 5%. At current exchange rates, that yields 2024 $ cost of sales unchanged (note I’m not using an average exchange rate for this year; my intention is to look at future prospects). Assuming a current run rate of 10k oz per qtr production, unit costs will be ca $1000/oz. But at the new run rate of ca 15k oz per quarter, unit costs should be nearer $700-750 per oz accruals, even allowing for some additional production costs. At current gold prices, that implies gross margins of ca $1700 per oz, ie gross profits of ca$100mn pa once the new plant is operating at its sustainable run rate. That compares with $23mn in 2023. 2025 PBT would be ca$88mn, or about 8x those in 2023. Given current gold prices and exchange rates, that looks a reasonable estimate of the outlook for next year.