Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[highly geared] 03/8/2020 22:19

The Net Present Values ( NPV’s ) are also cited in the CPR reports, then there’s data on the net regarding average gold in the ground values based on a mix of explorers/producing mines. You can take your pick regarding what someone will pay for Altyn with gold at c. $2000. Also , any acquisition has to give the owning family their stake back, repay debt and provide a good return.

I think any offer will need to be at least £250 million, otherwise they are giving the assets away. I think the plan remains to ramp up production rapidly, to 50,000 oz through 2021 calendar year whilst looking to scale up to 100,000 oz by 2023. If the former is achieved, the blend of production cash flow and reserves asset base ,puts the Board in a stronger negotiating position.

This should be “ buy and hold “ for the next 2 years.

[excellance] 03/8/2020 22:10

I don't believe the dollar will collapse or be "rebated", merely devalued by dilution and inflation, and in that environment some asset classes will do well, but many businesses will struggle with escalating costs and will pay lower dividends, so equities will struggle, but miners will do well, because the cash rich companies will looking to buy assets before the price rises get beyond them.

M & A activity will increase exponentially for small cap miners.

[goldrush] 03/8/2020 22:07

ODR

Many thanks for the welcome.

One of the reasons that convinced me to get some pronto was exactly as Highly Geared pointed out the Resource Valuation of $2.2 billion for ALTN on CHIP's BB. This hit me between the eyes over the week end when I was reviewing the CHIP Board.

[onedayrodders] 03/8/2020 20:10

The Big Lie
August 2 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz: “Gold has no role in portfolio of wealthy clients” said the chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs’ private wealth management in the week that gold in US dollars went up by over $100 and made a new high of $1,984. Many found this statement puzzling as another Goldman department previously has told clients not to sell anything gold.

The CIO went on to say: “Our view is that gold is only appropriate if you have a very strong view that the US dollar is going to be rebased. We don’t have that view.”

The truth clearly lies elsewhere. No asset manager is interested in protecting their clients’ assets by investing in the ultimate form of wealth preservation, which of course is physical gold. The reason is very simple. Goldman’s private wealth management, like all other asset managers, are not interested in holding physical gold for their clients for the simple reason that the bank can’t earn sufficient revenue on just holding client gold. Instead, they want to put expensive proprietary products and their own managed funds into client portfolios and also buy and sell shares regularly to churn commissions.

END

No ain't that the truth

[excellance] 03/8/2020 19:13

Did anyone see the ROCK rns today?

I thought it was a good result cos it proves continuity, tho I accept that grades aren't exactly staggering.

Trying to compare ROCK with CHF.

[excellance] 03/8/2020 19:10

Probably next Monday.

[thebradski007] 03/8/2020 18:59

Anyone know when Q2 results are due to be released?

[onedayrodders] 03/8/2020 17:59

Welcome goldrush .. I thought u were already in to be honest.

Company PR had been mothballed until recently, but now ever since a comment in the Annual Financial Review on May 1st ....

"The Directors believe that the share price is at an inflection point" (SP was under 1p at the time)

They have got their act together, raised funds, bought some serious new equipment, started Quarterly Production Reports, started to exceed production targets and at long last look to be on track in monetising this excellent asset.

There are still some gaps in communication but what do they say about "Rome ........

As Highly Geared points out, even if they mess up here, the asset in the ground in this bull market environment will be worth at least £200m.

(I'll let HG update that if changed)

There is an argument we are being dressed up for a quick sale but either way from this market cap, it's a BUY IMHO


ODR

[excellance] 03/8/2020 17:09

I think we're all fairly happy with the story at Sekky, it's going quite well this year so far, but I'd like to see more progress at TS and more on the open pit plan.

[highly geared] 03/8/2020 16:49

On the gold company comparison thread run by Chip, Altyn’s asset value now at c. $2.2 billion. Just need to keep digging more of the yellow stuff out or wait for a buyer to make a decent offer for said assets.

[goldrush] 03/8/2020 16:02

ODR

I don't know why I had not bought some here before (guess you can't be in them all !!....but as I have seen from the analysis looks undervalued to me....just bought 300k just now as a starter position....the last 176k was at 2.40

g

[glavey] 03/8/2020 05:27

"Why 3p tomorrow?"

Pocket money day?

[qazwsxedc69] 02/8/2020 20:15

I hope he's right of course, but it would be a first......

[qazwsxedc69] 02/8/2020 20:14

He's an idiot. Do yourself a favour a filter.

[red army] 02/8/2020 20:12

Why 3p tomorrow?

[easwarareddy] 02/8/2020 19:18

3p tomorrow

[tim000] 02/8/2020 10:03

Incidentally, in cash terms the company made a tiny surplus in 2019 H2, despite all its problems. I really don't think the market has caught on to the turnaround we think the business is achieving this year, which is probably having a dramatic impact on cashflow - mostly due to the massive increase in pog but also to a lesser extent the sustained depreciation of the Tenge.

[tim000] 02/8/2020 09:42

Everyone has been forecasting production for H1 and H2, but I haven't seen any guesstimates of cashflow. So I'll post something here on what we know about costs. In 2019 H2, cash costs of sales (exc depn) were 1832 mn KZT, while G&A was 442 mn KZT, making a total of 2274 mn KZT. (The only other significant cash cost in the P/L account is for finance charges.) What might that imply for 2020? Increased throughput is not going to require many more workers, most of the increased cost is the investment in machinery which only increases the non-cash depreciation charge. On the plus side, fuel costs have fallen significantly, which should offset increased use. Let's assume cash cost of sales increase by 30% this year, so 1832*2*1.3 = 4.75 bn KZT. Assume G&A increases by 13%, so 1 bn KZT. Total cash costs are therefore 5.75 bn KZT, against 4.5 bn for 2019 H2 annualized. Because of the Tenge's depreciation this year, that translates to ca. $14 mn, compared with $11.75 mn in 2019 H2 annualized. In other words, cash costs exc finance might only increase by say $2 mn this year, IF the company has remained frugal. And yet we believe production might be as high as 30k ozs, which at an average pog (incl silver credits) of $1850 yields revenue of ca. $55 mn. That compares to $15.4 mn in 2019 H2 annualized!! So you can see there is enormous improvement in cashflow, whatever assumptions are made on costs, provided the production figures we talk about are achieved.

[jc2706] 01/8/2020 21:22

RT,

I don’t think that anyone really disagrees. The market is waiting for proof that the company is capable of delivery. But if it does, the asset values will ultimately be reflected in the market capitalisation. Whether that be in a quarterly, interim or final report is yet to be seen.

[cyberbub] 01/8/2020 18:14

Well thinking rationally, the only things that could prevent a significantly improved Q2 production figure are IMO:* mechanical or operational problems* delay in getting the new equipment on site and ramping up* Covid reductions in staff on site leading to lower outputI don't think the first 2 are a real problem for the 6 months timescale. And assuming that a successful vaccine is found, Covid shouldn't cause any real issues either, for people willing to hold for 6 months+ surely?

[vish65] 01/8/2020 16:56

RT - your not the only Cassandra here !

[tim000] 01/8/2020 16:46

cyberbub, I used to think like you, and invest in marginal gold miners. But it never worked as expected. Perhaps because investors know that gold spikes are never permanent. Look at how miners like Kirkland Gold prosper in high pog periods. I expect ALTN to become a low AISC miner, because out of necessity its learnt how to operate extremely efficiently.

[nevgroom] 01/8/2020 16:36

Half-year results were announced in September last year - Q1/20 production update was in May (2nd Monday), if there is a production update in advance of the half-year results it could be 10th but, there is a school of thought that the production update and half-year results will come as one.

[excellance] 01/8/2020 16:21

My understanding is that Q2 H1 numbers will be released in the first or second week of August.

These numbers, combined with events of the last 12 months and the rising price of gold, will cause ALTN shares to become highly desirable for any investors portfolio.

Yes there are concerns about the large family holding and their intentions, and fear of investing in Kazakhstan which are unfounded. This rapidly growing cash generator operates outside of the gbp, euro, dollar sphere and as such is in a financially stable country