Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[roguetreader] 01/8/2020 15:25

I seem to be the resident cassandra here at the moment. We have yet to see the Q2 / H1 numbers and it's now August. I would have expected them out by now i.e. they (BOD / Management) must know what they are so given good results are likely to boost the SP, why are they not out yet? I'm not suggesting anything overly negative, but I do believe the company tells PIs what they think they need to know and when they need to know it as opposed to be providing disciplined regular and transparent reporting to them like well regulated miners do. My view is the share price languishes even compared to other AIM miners (I know ALTN is full listed) of a similar Mkt Cap because the BOD are not trusted. They need to prove themselves and until they do ALTN will remain at a significant discount. Just my opinion.

[outlawinvestor] 01/8/2020 12:06

@cyberbub - how so? Not sure I get it!

AFAIU, AISC will rise with POG because of royalties so starting off as low as possible is preferable.

[zooman] 01/8/2020 11:57

This was posted by Proton on the GGP bb and is an interesting read.ZooGold price set for best month in eight years

[cyberbub] 01/8/2020 11:52

Tim, surely producing miners with a *high* AISC are better investments if you believe the POG is going higher? Due to the leverage effect... Of course they are riskier as well for the same reason...

[tim000] 01/8/2020 10:57

I can't understand the mania for exploration companies, for which the current gold price makes no difference to the pace towards monetisation. By contrast, a sharp increase in pog helps ALTN enormously, generating substantial FCF, which in turn speeds capex and higher production, and hence more cashflow - a virtuous circle. Producing companies with a fairly low AISC and a large asset base are the perfect investment during a gold-price boom, and ALTN looks to be better than any of its competition.

[tim000] 01/8/2020 10:49

I agree with you JC, ceteris paribus the assets of ALTN are enormously undervalued, and as you say it's uncertainty on production/monetisation that is the restraining factor. But I expect there will always be a discount applied relative to companies such as GGP, given the jurisdiction and the majority holding of the Assaubayev family. Still, one can see this being multiples of the current mkt cap within a few years.

[excellance] 01/8/2020 10:28

I hope they complete phase 1 and produce 80,000 oz pa minimum, and with that they should be loaded with cash.

The question then is do they move to phase 2 and raise more cash or develop TS open pit?

[jc2706] 01/8/2020 09:53

It really depends what they are going to do with current operations. The current processing plant should ultimately be able to produce up to 80000 oz. I think that they should be producing a lot of cash at that level - probably enough to carry out the expansions they are envisaging. Whether it will be enough to develop them all the way to 200k-300k without debt, I don’t know but I am certainly expecting debt to be relatively limited.

The market clearly wants proof that production is being accelerated because the assets are worth far more than the market is currently attributing. I honestly think that this should be valued more highly than GGP and EUA. The biggest difference here is that the resource has been significantly defined already.

[tightfist] 01/8/2020 08:53

JC, IIRC they paid $27m for the historic drilling data at TS! Let alone the prior acquisition....I wasn't considering a short-term disposal of TS. As a basis they now have the CPR from 15th Oct last year and the opportunity to undertake further targeted drilling (and early Pit production?)..Over the next 2-3 years the PoG will do it's thing and then the debt will then need laying-down - somehow..One of many options! tightfist

[jc2706] 31/7/2020 21:50

I can’t see them selling TS to pay down debt. They paid a relatively large amount for it a few years ago and it has enormous potential. Far better to prove it up before selling it if that is what they want to do.

[wrighty46] 31/7/2020 14:39

Maybe a few sells to be printed later but bid is rising in the background. Hope to see some more buys into the close. Consolidation around the 2p level with reasonable volume bodes well for a strong rise imminently imo. GLA

[tightfist] 31/7/2020 13:17

tim000, agreed. .IIRC within the AGM Q&A they indicated TS was going to have a separate processing plant. IMO it will surely become very tempting to hive-off TS and then deploy the funds to pay-down their bonds and debt, and then use the surplus for Capex to add value by accelerating the development of Seki (and reward the shareholders?).Lots of ideas! tightfist

[brasso3] 31/7/2020 12:02

Mostly buys at 2.34p today.

[excellance] 31/7/2020 09:52

Here at altyn the directors and family own about 70% so presumably they could easily take this private in the blink of an eye until they reduce their shareholding

[brasso3] 31/7/2020 09:51

I am not sure how much longer ALTN can stay below 2.5p. Looks primed to breakout now.

[excellance] 31/7/2020 09:50

Don't know anything about HGM but the bid price of 300p seems quite low to me in the current environment.

Abromovich happy to agree to the sale.

I think the buyer already owned a chunk, but no idea if obtamovich owns any of them.

[tim000] 31/7/2020 09:32

Imho they are more likely to sell 100% of particular assets (or of course the entire company), then pay a special divi and use some of the proceeds to invest in the other projects.

[cyberbub] 31/7/2020 09:26

I tend to agree that a bid is getting likelier. The family have an average of 3p from what I understand, so would be unlikely to sell for much less than 10p after all these years IMO, especially with gold on a run to new ATHs.Alternatively they might want to retain a holding for future upside? So they could just sell 51% - 60% of the company, if a bidder was happy with just having control rather than full ownership.

[highly geared] 31/7/2020 09:09

With 5.3 million oz of reserves and potentially 5-10 million resources, Altn is a sitting duck for an offer. Whilst the Board own 70% and will decide, it will be tempting to take an offer of say 8-10p. The acquirer gets huge reserves and with muscle to pump in capital investment, exploits the assets with gold at levels that will throw of a mountain of cash.

[pjackson2] 31/7/2020 07:59

Hgm sold.
Maybe some of that money be invested here

[brasso3] 31/7/2020 07:46

HGM sold for 300p.

[zooman] 31/7/2020 07:46

Gold up this morning.1,972.73+15.65+0.80%Zoo

[mackie] 30/7/2020 16:11

The manipulation on these prices is staggering! Can't say I have seen many MM jumping around quite like this.

[zooman] 29/7/2020 21:43

Gold up.1,968.31+10.20+0.52%Zoo

[jc2706] 29/7/2020 21:33

Seems to be very strong. Every dip is bought aggressively. I thought that it would have pulled back by now but it looks like it has further to go before we see a pullback.