Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 07/1/2019 09:43

SCSW out Friday night. Also TS due in January

[northwards] 04/1/2019 14:35

Overheads in 1st 6 months to June 18 were £2.8m ... US investment ... U.K. acquisition (which is profitable). US sales force to hit 25 in '19.

[sheep_herder] 04/1/2019 14:28

That's one thing I never understood. At $150m the monthly GTR contribution is on the order of $800k. How are their costs that high?

[northwards] 04/1/2019 14:15

I think SCSW said $150m pa sales throughput is required to achieve breakeven ... of course growth beyond that has huge impact on the bottom line.

[sheep_herder] 04/1/2019 14:08

nurdin, no, nothing. I was just modelling the extra income from AIMPro. I may look at the costs once we have more visibility.

Either way, taking off a couple of million doesn't change much after year one.

[nurdin] 04/1/2019 14:01

No costs in your EPS estimates SH?I am guessing you have included operating costs at least...

[fardistanthills] 04/1/2019 13:19

Mouth-watering indeed. And I assume these numbers are just for AIMPro?

We have heard little recently about the NAPCO Media deal agreed in February 2018. Unless I have missed it? In the September interim report they stated:-

"Order processing began in August through Think Promo Now, the ChannlPro solution for US commercial printers launched through our partnership with NAPCO Media in late August 2018 and first users on-boarded." and "These users are actively using the platform to both source and place orders" plus "The partnership will provide Altitude with access to approximately 80,000 commercial print businesses of which approximately 12,500 are already active in the promotional product market."

I would imagine given Stella Nichole's contacts at NAPCO this collaboration should do very well and be equally mouth watering.

The September 2017 RNS announcing her appointed had this:-

"Nichole was a leading force with the Promo Marketing Media Group, a division of NAPCO Media (North American Publishing Company), for the last 12 years and served as President and Chief Revenue Officer of the group since 2013. Promo Marketing Media Group is a leading source of services and information to the promotional product and print distributor industries in the USA."

An update on NAPCO progress could come as a pleasant surprise.

All speculation of course.

[sheep_herder] 04/1/2019 11:41

I managed to create a spreadsheet over the holiday period and have been quite conservative but have still managed to generate some mouth watering numbers. The following details my assumptions:

- member growth = 25/month ( this is the current growth rate and ignores the new staff in 2019)
- supplier penetration growth = 2%/month (how quickly the outsource team can add products to the DB)
- distributor penetration growth = 1%/month (how quickly each disti moves business to AIMPro, starting at 56% to hit the Dec $40M run rate)
- Online GTR = 6% (16% max)
- Offline GTR = 4% (6% max)
- Online growth = 1%/month (how quickly ALT can move AIMPro business offline to online)

My Dec starting figures are:
- supplier penetration = 33%
- Disti penetration = 56%
- Offline business = 90%
- 240 members
- 4 week average weekly revenue = $825K
- yearly revenue run rate = $40M

With those starting and growth figures I get EPS of 7p, 22p and 51p (no costs or tax accounted for).

With only 2% supplier penetration growth, all the products wouldn't be in the system until nearly 3 years down the road so it's very conservative, as is the GTR, so there's plenty of growth here. Even if they stall or hit trouble, I think there's huge upside on the EPS.

[john09] 04/1/2019 10:52

And usually there is some day before price action

[northwards] 04/1/2019 10:36

Would expect a end year trading update in the next week or two ... which would cover the period since 18 November ... average weekly sales in the 8 week period to Nov 18 were $675k from memory. Be good to see that figure in excess of $850k for the last 6 weeks ...

[northwards] 03/1/2019 15:46

Holding up well given US carnage /Apple profit warning

[stephen1946] 03/1/2019 13:00

These large sells could well be the, `Swansong` of previous board members.

Good riddance.

[john09] 02/1/2019 13:14

HNY

Depends on the market tbh. Generally at peak it’s worth 60% or so

[robbnw] 02/1/2019 12:44

Happy new year JohnTbh, re SCSW nap tips. Not sure how much success they have had recently with their tips, aside from ALT

[northwards] 02/1/2019 12:12

Buy just gone through at 80p ... MMs trying to hold this down but cant hold off for too much longer ...

[northwards] 02/1/2019 12:06

Given we're off the radar, interesting buys coming in ...

[northwards] 02/1/2019 08:14

Could be a huge year for ALT ...

[robbnw] 01/1/2019 22:42

Here here Stephen

[stephen1946] 01/1/2019 20:45

I would like to wish everybody at Altitude, working so hard for the benefit of Alt Shareholders, A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

[northwards] 27/12/2018 10:00

Dow up almost 5% yesterday, ftse down almost 1% so far today.

[stephen1946] 26/12/2018 22:32

Huge USA clawback 27.12.18. Up as much as 1000pts. UK jumps on the wagon at 14.30 hrs.

[thebigshortfella] 25/12/2018 18:15

robbnw - thanks fella! Merry Xmas! 🌲🎁🍷🥃7866;🍾ԍ46;

[robbnw] 25/12/2018 17:03

Big short / stephen/ John / allBest wishes for Xmas and the new year Market turmoil or not 2019 is going to be a game changer of a year for ALT

[thebigshortfella] 25/12/2018 13:58

Stephen1946 - I reckon (but don’t know) that promotional gifts must spike over Xmas. Have a great Xmas fella and all other ALT holders! 🎅🌲🎁🍷