Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon 14th] 13/12/2018 18:18

That's really one impressive presentation by N. Stella.
This is also a very different company to the one I bought into originally.
If the future results of her work reflect the obvious competence she shows in that half hour I'm quite happy to keep ALT in my PF LTBH.

[northwards] 13/12/2018 18:00

Just watched the Mello video. Nicky is very impressive - exciting times ahead...

[kemche] 13/12/2018 16:03

Thanks SH.

[sheep_herder] 13/12/2018 14:40

Right, Peter was good enough to reply to my questions.

Firstly, the average growth they've reported is supposedly the CAGR from Jan to Nov. However, I calculate that as 31% if I start from Jan and it falls to 16% for the last 5 months. I don't think it's that representative this early in the ramp up anyway but I think including the early data is potentially inflating it at best.

Regarding my exchange with topper and my reasoning that we had only got to an average AIMPro member weekly spend of $3200 or 18%, he confirmed that was a "reasonable deduction from the stats" but pointed out that the 240 members is obviously historical data already.

He also took time to comment on my assertion that the on-boarding member count was flat at 515. The basic summary was to concentrate on the "total engaged members" line which was 1232 vs 720 and the top of the table which is "multiple ordering members" which was 181 vs 120. The "on-boarding members" row is really just a temp row for members "moving up the table".

So I will take back my assertion that the on-boarding member count is important and only concentrate on how quickly they can move engaged members to ordering members. That performance will improve as they add staff in the US.

He also confirmed my previous summary that the three ways they will increase revenue are to i) move all suppliers onto the system; ii) continue to get engaged members ordering; and iii) move more business from offline to online where it commands a higher GTR.

[kemche] 13/12/2018 13:02

Corduroy, possibly. English, not so much!

[sheep_herder] 13/12/2018 12:34

Ex English teacher. Wears lots of corduroy.

[kemche] 13/12/2018 12:19

I'm guessing 1960 to 1961 - thereabouts.

[kemche] 13/12/2018 11:58

SH, I can easily see a hyperbolic curve and up to a figure of 24,000 in about 7.36 months.

In conclusion, I wish to have Nicole's babies.

[stephen1946] 13/12/2018 11:22

The presentation graph shows members at 16 jan 2018 increasing to 240 oct 2018.

Simple addition 16x15=240 on that basis 240x15=3600 by 0ct 2019.

Exponential growth, upward curve, will see that figure of 3600 increase ??fold.

Jan 2019 update will light up the share price.

[sheep_herder] 13/12/2018 10:49

Sorry quinny, don't get your point.

[william_quinn] 13/12/2018 10:44

Ha, dig deeper SH, much deeper !!

[sheep_herder] 13/12/2018 10:28

Thanks for the video link. She presents well.

They covered the lack of cash and say they're talking to the banks about a line of credit to cover the growth which is good to know.

They also highlighted why they spend so much effort in what I called the 'hand holding' of members. I can understand why they do this as the average sales person isn't that switched on technology wise. So I guess this is a required service even if it limits the ramp rate by how many staff they employ.

Overall I'm happy and if they deliver on what they say, then 2019 could show a big jump. I liked the fact that they have other monetisation options for the AIM group once they get all the suppliers on board - such as charging them priority fees to promote themselves and charge advertising. And this is before any other deals start to deliver revenue.

So even though I'm not that impressed by the current ramp rate, I can understand why it's needed and hope that in a few years time it all comes off. Hell, we might even seen northwards' exponential growth eventually. :-)

[tomps2] 13/12/2018 09:00

ALT presentation at Mello London November 2018.



Helpful overview of the investment opportunity by CEO and Chairman. She's certainly very excited about the opportunity.

[john09] 12/12/2018 13:20

💤 tedious share price action as I’ve said
70p now looks more likely than £1 yet again

[sheep_herder] 12/12/2018 11:07

northwards, show me the data that shows exponential growth please.

[northwards] 12/12/2018 10:52

Sheep - exponential growth is happening. I'm confident we are now doing c $1m of sales throughput a week ... and growing. But alt is seeing that the more sales staff it has, the better it can turbocharge platform sales. It plans to near double its us team to 25 next year - that's still very tight, but probably requires money. I'd be fully supportive of a small fund raise.

[sheep_herder] 12/12/2018 08:51

I had a brief communication with Martin this weekend who pointed me at Peter. Not heard back yet and not sure if he will or won't comment.

However, I went back and reread the last presentation and realised they already confirmed my suspicion that the limit on the ramp up is caused by the hand holding needed to on-board members. On the summary page they state, "acceleration directly correlated to resource". Was anyone at the presentation that can remember any comments about this? Is this purely a manpower issue? I was really hoping they could scale the business the way a pure SaaS one does.

I believe that we should hopefully see a direct jump in revenue when they get the final two thirds of suppliers signed up. That would actually push the current AIMPro average spend above 50% of their yearly revenue average. We'll have to see how quickly that outsource team can complete this work.

The next jump will come in member ordering growth but that is limited by the US team size. The FY results will be the next time we see those stats.

At least there's lots of scope for growth.

[john09] 12/12/2018 08:12

Some more shocking performances out there today FTC, SDRY

Nice and warm here !

[sheep_herder] 10/12/2018 18:26

Topper, you don't need to calculate any of that, it's covered in the GTR calcs. The 2.4% is what comes in to ALT based on what the end revenue is to the end customer. That's why they've given us that percentage, so we don't have to worry about the maths.

Either way, that's separate from the simple per customer average which is currently 17%, or thereabouts, of the average AIM members weekly revenue.

To put us out of our misery, I've asked the company to confirm.

[topperlaser1] 10/12/2018 17:57

& not that it matters - I am not sure the company are quoting any number. Where did they quote it! I really think my maths is correct.

[topperlaser1] 10/12/2018 17:56

Because allitude are paid by the suppliers. The distributor member average revenue reflects the price they charge their customers. So you need to adjust that revenue by a guess estimate of the average mark up which I guess at 35% to get revenue a supplier would get if they were to get all that members "flow". You miss the mark up. The maths is 866k average member revenue * .65 = 562k to adjust for market which divided by 52 weeks is 10.8k a week * by either 180 (distributors used it more than once - you can use 240 which includes those just on boarded and used only once) 180 * 10.8 is 1900k. Today they do weekly 850k. Your maths is wrong as you misunderstand the mark up.

[sheep_herder] 10/12/2018 17:41

Topper, honestly, I can't understand why you think I'm going wrong. Can we walk through it?

We have the total AIM yearly revenue and we have the number of members. So average weekly spend is around $16,500.

ALT have told us the current average monthly spend based on 240 members ordering.

Why do you think that value is higher than the figures the company is quoting?

[john09] 10/12/2018 15:47

£ just weekened a little more on that commons speech