Alphawave Ip Share Discussion Threads

[dividevil] 19/10/2023 16:41

Market did not like the H1 interim results. They saw profit move to loss, A reduction in the adjusted EBITDA margin to 17%, an increase in net debt and breach of the debt covenant to maintain FCCR above 1.25 forcing the company to negotiate a waiver and period for recovery of the FCCR back above 1.25.That combined with the recent rise from the AI fervour gave the market opportunity to take profits now and hence the fall.In reality, from company perspective, there were several large one-off payments related to recent M&A activity and expenditure costs to develop the connectivity products ready by 2024. These will reduce going forward. They also argued that EBITDA margin will improve in H2 as bookings consist of higher profit margin sales. Hence they are maintaining their guidance.

[magnets] 19/10/2023 15:43

Anyone know why this is halted?

[scepticalinvestor] 04/10/2023 18:55

Yes follow me plank. You may actually learn something, cretin

[sturmey] 02/10/2023 19:11

Jefferies have a price target of 270 in a note dated 26 September. Worth a read. They explain well the apparently poor results

[f56] 02/10/2023 18:51

Follow sceptical investor. In this case it makes sense!

[dividevil] 28/9/2023 15:55

Nothing to do with China jitters. It is due to markets lack of confidence in the company management of cash flow. There is a perceived impression that the company is burning too much cash on staffing costs, R&D etc given the lack of profitability despite revenue.Company says margins will improve in H2 and forecast 25% adjusted EBITDA but I suspect markets tend not to pay attention to adjusted EBITDA, they are more interested in actual profits. Managing three acquisitions in the space of 18 months was always going to be tough. The last acquisition of Banias labs maybe perceived as a bit too risky for some and seen as a gamble. I believe it will pay off.

[valhamos] 28/9/2023 15:01

Why would it be China jitters when other tech stocks are not affected?

[pugugly] 28/9/2023 14:56

If 100p breaks then burnt toast - and potentially in free fall - China jitters??

[casholaa] 26/9/2023 16:35

It's all gone a bit sh*t really.

[scepticalinvestor] 26/9/2023 16:27

Might be tempted at 50p

[pugugly] 26/9/2023 12:30

Skids still under AWE at the moment -

[valhamos] 25/9/2023 21:37

The investor presentation and webcast is now on the website.

Also on the blog page on the website is a very informative interview with the CTO Tony Chan Carusone talking about connectivity solutions for AI hardware - as per today's announcement 77% of Licence and NRE bookings are in advanced nodes with 90% of that related to AI/HPC (High Performance Computing). Only Marvell is competing with Alphawave in this area.

[susiebe] 25/9/2023 13:57

Best ignored.Never heard from him when going from sub 100 to 150p+.Desperate posting from a desperate loser.Shame for him that his posting history is here for all to see.

[trader465] 25/9/2023 13:02

ScepticalInvestor - 28 Apr 2023 - 15:12:49 - 1472 of 1713
50p open after suspension

[scepticalinvestor] 25/9/2023 12:51

Bloodbath when the US opens.Opened a juicy short at 136, lets see where this goes

[casholaa] 25/9/2023 10:53

Price on product gone up. Thank you for your understanding.

[casholaa] 25/9/2023 10:21

Onward and upward!

[dividevil] 25/9/2023 09:50

Adam,I get that $123.5 million of the H1 revenue came from China. This is not at all too much. The non-China revenue at $63.1 million is a 79% increase on H1 of 2022. The 2022 Financial report makes it clear that AWE expect the China revenue to fall below 10% of the total revenue over the long term. Remember also that AWE strategy pre IPO was China focused and prior to the rise in geopolitical tensions. The fact that AWE have managed to steer through this crisis and still generate huge growth be it by acquisition or organically is a testament to their adaptability and clear headed vision to realign their business according to the circumstances. Anyone thinking that 66% revenue from China today is too much are getting their frilly knickers into a twist over nothing of significance. In the Silicon IP business most bookings are converted to revenue in a matter of months and all bookings are contractual non-cancellable commitments. The only time bookings don't convert to revenue is if the royalties don't materialise but the largest chunk of the bookings is NRE and license fees. The two main things that crucially matter the most for AWE's success are: That they achieve revenue according to their stated guidance and growth targets and that they at least maintain their portion of the addressable market year on year. Given that the they are focused on the high end future generation products in the data centric market it is an inevitability that they will increase their share of the addressable market. So all this focus on the 'apparent' cash flow mess which really is not that significant in the grand scheme of things is a mere side distraction. Any price weakness in the next 6 to 12 months only represents a fantastic opportunity to build a strong position in a business that is very highly likely going to be generating more than 4x the current forecast revenue for 2023 within 5 years of now.

[adamb1978] 25/9/2023 08:36

Not a holder here, but I worked in teh industry for almost a decade. The problem with bookings, particularly in a world where the results are a mess, the corporate structure is convoluted and the CFO has just left abruptly, is that you really don't know what is behind that number. Are they massively long-dated? How deliverable are those bookings?

Also, reseller arrangements like AWE have with Verisilicon are unlikely to have committed volumes - its a reseller arrangement. So the China element in bookings isn't comparable to the non-China bookings figure as its a wholly different business model

Better to look at revenue for the China exposure

[dividevil] 25/9/2023 08:28

Again another one lying to his back teeth!

[dividevil] 25/9/2023 08:27

That doesn't answer my question. You can't try to pretend that floating on the UK market (2 years ago) is why according to you AWE have too much coming from China when it represents less than 10% of the current bookings!

[stallone10] 25/9/2023 08:18

Ask why did they float in the UK and not USA, China exposure

[mortal1ty] 25/9/2023 08:09

If I was a institutional investor I wouldn't go near this with my clients money. That's the problem. Accounts messy. New CFO. Capitalised costs. contract accounting. Single larger resellers. Huge China exposure. I mean its uninvestable almost.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/9/2023 08:08

Oof! Mkt severely displeased