Alphawave Ip Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 25/9/2023 08:07

Dibs on 110p today?

[stallone10] 25/9/2023 07:50

Not great results and China still 2 big for it to be comfortable

[dividevil] 25/9/2023 07:49

Sceptical Investor, A bit odd of you to perceive a $15.3 million profit after tax as a loss. Of course there is an increase in debt. That's what the debt facility is there for. A lot of the cash is going back into the R&D and in particular for the development of the connectivity products due to come to the market in 2024. The H1 results also state an increase in profitability for H2.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/9/2023 07:48

Nah this warrants at least a 5% drop on open

[mortal1ty] 25/9/2023 07:46

Revenue known. Cash flow performance not. Market won't like it.

In general though its pretty messy you have to admit that. The contract type accounting stuff is weird. China is now 65% of sales is pretty scary. There is only one reseller on China it seems. I mean... its not your normal semi business is it.

Calling it... opens flat. Drifts down through the day as people get further down the statement :)

[pugugly] 25/9/2023 07:45

EBITDA looks to be in line with broker's forecast but debt and cash burn diabolical-
Revenue and contracts up very significantly.
Will have to wait of Mr Market's decision - however chip companies SP's in US weak.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/9/2023 07:34

Oh dear - substantial loss, massively increased debt. Not looking pretty

[dividevil] 25/9/2023 07:25

$187 million revenue for H1 2023 already exceeds the 2022 total revenue with H2 revenue expected to be better.

[mortal1ty] 25/9/2023 07:09

Cash flow is an absolute mess. 87m ebitda into a 77m cash outflow. Impressive.

[boozey] 24/9/2023 08:57

Results tomorrow. Always a nervous time for an Alphawave shareholder. Derisked my position a little on Friday. fingers crossed.

[dividevil] 15/9/2023 09:26

Trading volumes have been relatively low in the past few days or so especially in the mornings. I'm not expecting a rise into the half yearly results but then who knows?I think the blogger Doug O'Laughlin (Fabricated Knowledge) suggested the $50 entry price was expensive. And another blogger Tech Fund estimated a valuation of about $18 a share. So perhaps after the initial enthusiasm Arm Holdings will eventually fall back to some amount well below $50 for a fair while before appreciating again.

[pugugly] 15/9/2023 08:07

Looks like I called it wrong - Opened down - Profit taking ?

[boozey] 14/9/2023 22:58

Am hoping for a good run up to results due on 25th.

[pugugly] 14/9/2023 20:04

Arm shares jump by 20% as trading begins

Upside knock on tomorrow?

[dividevil] 13/9/2023 11:20

Yes typically quarterly trading updates are issued 20 to 30 days after the end of the quarterly period. So as year end is 31st December for AWE then trading updates:

Q1 around 20th to 30th April
Q2 around 20th to 31st July
Q3 around 20th to 31st October
Q4 around 20th to 31st January

Half yearly results are typically issued around 75 days after the first half of the financial year, so from around 20th to 30th September.

Yearly Financial Results are required to be issued not more than 4 months after the financial year end therefore must be before 30th April, otherwise suspension! :)

[casholaa] 13/9/2023 10:10

"confirms that it will be announcing its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2023 on Monday 25 September 2023" Pretty sure they have a trading update in the week commencing 16 October too.

[dividevil] 10/9/2023 10:41

We should expect the half yearly results around 21st September. LSE/FRC only require submission of audited accounts on an annual basis. Therefore a delay is very unlikely.

[casholaa] 10/9/2023 10:16

At a guess I'd say that the date/usual week remains the same.

[boozey] 09/9/2023 16:21

Does anyone know when the interims are due - they are normally around 21st September, but after the delay with the Finals I have a feeling they may be delayed..

[dividevil] 08/9/2023 16:06

This semiwiki article is worth a read.

Growth of the IP interface segment over the next 5 years is expected to be in the region 20% CAGR.

Alphawave are in the high end segment of this sector and there are expectations that they could command 25% of market by 2027 translating to realistic annual revenues of around $600m to $800m. This doesn't even take into account of the additional revenues to be expected from chiplets. Arguably, AWE's target revenue of $1 billion pa by 2027 seems reasonable and achievable.

Even as a conservative estimate and taking into account of 2.5% annual dilution, based on the ratio of today's pricing to current revenue, a $billion revenue would equate to a minimum share price of £7.50.

[dividevil] 25/8/2023 11:43

Yesterday Credo reported 35 million USD Q1 quarterly revenue which was marginally above expectation and a 9% increase over the preceding quarter. They forecast 43 million USD for the next quarter and are expecting sequential growth throughout 2024. Their shares sank approximately 7% yesterday. Credo are up 14% for the calendar year to date (up 102% from their low point on 7th May) and have a forward P/S of 7.8.

Marvell also reported yesterday, 1.34 billion USD Q2 quarterly revenue, a 12% decline based on the same Q2 quarter of last year but was 11 million USD above the midpoint expectation for the quarter. Marvell forecast a 4.5% increase to 1.4 billion USD revenue for Q3. This growth is being driven primarily by AI and cloud infrastructure. Marvell CEO, Matt Murphy, said; “Demand from AI applications continues to strengthen, driving our overall revenue outlook from AI for this fiscal year even higher than previously outlined. Our strategy to focus on data infrastructure across a diverse set of end markets is serving us well despite the backdrop of a softening macroenvironment.221; Marvell shares fell 11.6% yesterday. Marvell are up 52% for the calendar year to date and have a forward P/S of 7.7.

For comparison, AWE are up 23.5% for the calendar year to date with a forward P/S of 3.65.

Most of the data infrastructure related semiconductor companies took heavy-ish falls yesterday in spite of the news of Nvidia out-smashing of revenue expectations and very upbeat outlook.

[casholaa] 24/8/2023 22:31

Oh yes, I shot a small wad at it, not much, just enough to keep the excitement ticking over. The share price has never really recovererd from the FT article, despite the rns. I wouldn't blame them if the left the LSE for the land of the hotdog.

[valhamos] 24/8/2023 20:58

"The market can drive a person to madness" The prevention is not to be concerned about short term share price movements.

"it ...can stay irrational.." which is where rational investors make money.

If you were kicking yourself for not adding yesterday morning, then you must delighted to have had another opportunity this afternoon?