Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[ihatemms] 27/3/2024 12:25

With the AGM on the 1st May and the full FTSE listing planned for May surely we must be close to getting a timetable for the transfer from AIM to full market listing ? Then with a lot more brokers poring all over the figures that’s when more international interest should perk up (as well as the trackers)

[maddox] 25/3/2024 09:36

Thanks Mr scruff. Whilst it's highly commendable that ALPH Mgt wish to be measured by underlying performance - this presentation of the figures significantly distorts reality. At period end 23% of the Mkt Cap was accounted for by cash, and on a cash basis ALPH are on a p/e of 9.

ALPH basic eps 206.2p was x3 the Brokers consensus forecast for FY23 (68p)!

So looking to the Brokers consensus eps forecast FY24 of 78p and FY25 90p suggesting that we're currently trading on a forward p/e of 23 for FY24 whereas, my estimates put ALPH on a forward p/e of 8.5.

There is thus huge value hidden in ALPH - the figures are there do the math!

Regards Maddox

[mrscruff] 23/3/2024 14:22

Excellent summery Maddox. I don't think they are allowed to speculate over the future neutral rate of interest but we we can all speculate towards the market who are hinting that this will be around 3.2% since the end of last year and a pick up in business at the same time will be a new way to frame this investment.

[maddox] 22/3/2024 00:12

It's like ALPH are embarrassed by the interest they are earning, the Profit before tax at £115.9m is greater than their reported revenue £110.4m?!?

So you could present these results....

ALPH's business model provides a natural hedge such that when the economic environment dampens fee income, higher interest rates drive interest income; boosting profits and cash generation.

Group total income rose 73% with FX Risk Management revenue up 10% to £76.3m, Alternative Banking up 18% to £33.9m but primarily driven by Interest Income up 685% to £73m. Accordingly, reported Profit before tax increased 148% to £115.9m and Basic EPS was up 124% to 206.2p. Net cash increased by £64m up 56% to £178.8m (2022: £114.4m).

Whilst this windfall will clearly reduce with the interest rate cycle it will have generated significant cash to enhance the business. Also, it is unlikely that we'll see a return to super-low interest rates and with cash balances growing along with client numbers - it'll continue to be a significant part of the income mix going forward.

So, IMHO having a highly resilient business model that can see you comfortably through a down-turn is a very attractive characteristic.

[sailorsam1] 20/3/2024 20:35

Adj cash figure is the key here

[kalai1] 20/3/2024 16:22

Alpha Group International plc posted FY 23 results this morning. Group revenue increased 12% to £110.4m with FX Risk Management revenue up 10% to £76.3m while Alternative Banking revenue was up 18% to £33.9m. Interest on client balances grew to over £73m from £9.3m due to the higher interest rate environment. Underlying profit before tax grew 11% to £43.0m while reported Profit before tax increased 148% to £115.9m accordingly. Reported basic EPS was up 124% to 206.2p. A Final dividend of 12.3 pence per share was proposed making the total final dividend for FY23 16p. A SBB of up to £20m was also initiated in January. The balance sheet remains very strong, debt free with adjusted net cash increasing by £64m to £178.8m. Valuation remains unhelpful with forward PE at 23.6x and PS ratio at 6.55x bottom and 3rd quartile respectively. Share price also lacks positive momentum and is in its 3rd consecutive year of sideways range trading. That being said the share is low in range and moving up on today’s release, and it could generate some short-term upside even while remaining range bound. The share is also well worth knowing about for the longer run. BUY....

...from WealthOracle

[mrscruff] 20/3/2024 10:39

Nothing unexpected other than the announcement that they are targeting main listing for May and the new board appointment continues to add age and experience above Morgan Tillbrook age who is very young and may put of investors. Fully understand what Morgan has done but as the company grows a move away from key people is critical to growth.

I can see private equity buying out ALPH and automating everything. The staff will own shares and will be suitably compensated.

[mrscruff] 19/3/2024 12:45

Results tomorrow. We are already near 1-year lows and many here will need a a poor result to buy more cheaper given the long-term goldilox for Alpha Group of stronger economy and possibly a higher nominal rate than the past 20 years. I am 50% accumulated here buying on the dips.

[mrscruff] 15/3/2024 11:20

Yes advanced warning will be given. Don't forget results next week so full listing news could be bundled with that? I have bought in and hope it actually falls or ideally stays flat by the end of the year meaning that while my Alpha holdings will be down or showing little profit, my overall portfolio will rise as rates get cut. If Alpha smashes the lights out by the end of the year due to higher rates (not my base case) my overall portfolio is likely to be down but I then have something to sell for deferred recovery. So it's a bit of an leveraged hedge over a money market fund in the less ulikley event of higher rates. If anyone knows other ways then let us know but keeping away from recession risk.

[ali47fish] 15/3/2024 09:22

will a date be given in advance- i am seeking a lower entry

[mrscruff] 15/3/2024 08:26

No date for premium listing. This could be a catalysts for a move up. Also a catalysts would be higher inflation towards the end of the year.

[ali47fish] 14/3/2024 22:40

did they give a date hwen the will move to a premium listing/ 250 footsie

[ali47fish] 14/3/2024 22:40

did they give a date hwen the will move to a premium listing/ 25

[mrscruff] 14/3/2024 17:45

Fed in no rush to cut rates is the latest news. Markets down but higher rates for longer will strongly benefit ALPHA. Especially in the future neutral rate stay around 3% this would be amazing for Alpha group.

The fall in share price is not really due to sentiment of over generous employee share scheme and the chief selling but due to large investors like JPMorgan selling at peek rates having profited. Time is a healer for a strong stock and net buying will resume in due-course.

[mrscruff] 07/3/2024 09:14

How would rate cuts impact this share? I am confident the EBC will cut rates first. I have no idea about the BOE but suspect they would follow yet the US may hold rates. As the value of the dollar will be maintained these should even themselves out but I am really out of my debt here. Anyone knowledgable about this area.

I am holding this share as I expect rates to go down but be maintaining at between 2 to 3.5%.

I suppose all this volatility would attract more customers.

[ihatemms] 04/3/2024 16:55

The full listing timetable is due anytime. Hopefully get some news with the prelims on circa 19/3.

[mrscruff] 04/3/2024 15:26

Is it time to buy ALPH? We all know this one of the brightest prospects in the UK market and this makes it an ideal share for those to take their profit too! They did well. Well done. It can take a while for these sellers to clear. Then we can move on upwards.

[ali47fish] 16/2/2024 14:45

well dont know what to make of liontrust reducing by c 1pc and fidelity investing 5pc?

[ihatemms] 30/1/2024 23:09

llama - the CEO - still retains 87% of his shares- only sold about 13% of his holding. He’s 40 - he wants to spend some of his money whilst he’s still young enough to enjoy it. Nobody wants to be the richest corpse in the graveyard.
Once the full listing news timetable is announced the ftse 250 trackers will pile in plus all those funds who can only invest in fully listed companies.
The share price has fallen because we were/are in the AIM/Fully listed funds transition period and fund redemptions/ funds re -jigging portfolios.

[philly cheesesteak] 30/1/2024 12:41

Only they aren't a classic FX company are they llama? Hence why they have 40% PBT margins, unlike the other pretenders on AIM ;)

I strongly suspect this will be a £100 share at some point this decade, it's far too good for AIM and will see significant inflows once on the FTSE250. Strong buy.

Edit. And to respond to your 25% dilution comment, here are some other stats;

2017 AIM admission price: £1.96

7 year gain: 729%

7 year CAGR 35.5%

PBT at IPO: £4.3m

7 year gain based on the £115m reported a couple of weeks back; 2574%

7 year CAGR 60%

Now compare those figures with the other companies you quoted & come back to me ;)

[llama_investor] 30/1/2024 12:02

Buyback aiming to pump up the price so that Tillbrook can offload another massive amount of shares?

Can't blame him for cashing in as clearly all is not well in the FX world, see read-across from EQLS and AGFX recently.

Employee share schemes referred to have been responsible for stealthily increasing the share count almost 25% in last 6 years. Not great for private investors.

[sdmbot] 29/1/2024 11:46

Also it will increase Morgan's share holding as a percent of the total and should help with morale in the company as there are several different employee share schemes

[koolhead] 29/1/2024 11:22

Of course it's good for investors! They're doing it for all the right and obvious reasons. The shares are absurdly cheap and materially undervalued the company, and they have tons of spare cash to do it.

[mysteronz] 29/1/2024 07:47

Great news. Company agree it is undervalued and is swimming in cash