Alltracel Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 16:37

Did I mention that AMS are looking to enter the military market for their dressings ?

I can name the director who has been tasked with this if anyone is interested

AMS had a deal with Cardinal Health some years ago for them to supply woundcare dressings for Cardinal to market in the US

I believe after a year or so Cardinal have let this fizzle out ... the deal that HemCon are enetering into with Cardinal Health for the none military market will no doubt hurt AMS in due time.

AMS are no doing lots of business with J&J with their silver woundcare product Silvercel(made by AMS)

[alimo] 28/1/2008 16:16

Has anyone got CRA on their backburner?

[supernumerary] 28/1/2008 15:15

this report was presumably the 50K investec sold at 10.5p? Naughty Appian should have reported next day. Hope the Takeover Panel sends them a sharp reminder, lol

[supernumerary] 28/1/2008 15:13

buywell - it's moving up, sure, but the volumes don't yet say rocket to me. In any case I'm a holder until the price reaches my target (which of course may move depending on circumstances).

I can't get a quote to sell 400k because I don't hold that many and have no interest in buying at all, so don't see what purpose it would serve. As you've presumably already done the exercise, why don't you enlighten us?

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 14:59

Super

AP. chart is starting to rocket northwards

Buying stock now pushes the price up on even small volumes as we have seen

Try getting a quote for 400k of shares and tell us what you find

[supernumerary] 28/1/2008 14:56

buywell/4web - I would sell today for 16p, but I bet you wouldn't buy at that price, no matter how cheap you keep saying it is.

I only regret that I didn't sell my entire holding when I could and put it into my two favourites at the time. My mdx purchase is showing a close to 100% profit with a lot more to go, imo...

[4web] 28/1/2008 14:55

Agree with you Viking. It still is nothing. I am happy I have bought at 9.5 penny a few weeks ago, but the numbers suggest this share shouldn't be sold for less than say 25 - 35 penny.

[viking1066] 28/1/2008 14:53

21.4p is 0.15p better than my original get in price 3 years ago yippee!!!

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 14:53

Looking better of late

If the farm isn't sold will look better soon

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 14:51

No Viking did in a moment of madness

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 14:50

Yep

Goodbody were spot on

This share should be trading at 21p as of now , and if rated like AMS should be over double this

On forward looking P/E valuations it should be trading at 40p sometime in 2008

Still want to sell ?

[4web] 28/1/2008 14:45

Viking, that does sound like you have cracked to Goodbody figures. So... 16 penny is too low? :-) Or was is Super who would sell for 16 penny.

[viking1066] 28/1/2008 14:30

Buywell taking the numbers with an excel sheet with a P/E of 12.4 then the EPS would have to be 1p to give that number. From their Interim Report we get the following:

EBITDA positive €0.36M versus loss of €1.42M in H1 2005
EBITDA of €592k versus €360k in H1 2006
Trend EBITDA growth suggests 60%, assuming costs are kept in line H2 could be €947k providing €1.54m for 2007

This suggests profits of £1.16m sterling and equates to a 2007 P/E of 16

If you then trend to 2008 with synergies and growth from the combined entities within AP it should produce a further 50% EBITDA growth to give £1.74m or translate 2008 to a P/E of 11.

However if Buywells assumption is even half correct and revenues increase due to Hemcon sales (taking Noel Toolans expectations of €1m per year in the interview he gave on signing the deal) and this is license revenues then this could add a further £750k to the bottom line or bring the P/E for 2008 to 7.

All the above is based on known revenue trends and projected growth of EBITDA based on what is available from the AP website. There is nothing in there for the possible Cosmeticeuticals, Convatec Nano deal or indeed the CVH. All under valuing the company significantly based on the current share price.

Now the share price (notwithstanding AMS P/E) may well be closer to a fair value P/E of 12 which is 21.4p or pretty close to the discounted cash value of what Goodbody Stockbrokers say the company is worth. Anything less than that is selling off the family silver.

(In case the numbers do get revealed they should exclude the one off costs of the acquisition and fund raising costs associated with Synpart)

[alimo] 28/1/2008 14:13

So 50p isn't far away after all?

[buywell2] 28/1/2008 13:47

In the Times today the P/E of Alltracel is shown as 12.4

I do not think this is correct

I expect AP. earnings/profits to double in 2007 when the next results are published

I expect 2008 earnings/profits to double

Which if the Times is correct means AP. is on a forward P/E of 6 for 2008

This is absolutely ridiculously low for a company with real growth prospects

AMS are trading today at a P/E of 46

[viking1066] 28/1/2008 12:48

I am a Viking conscientious objector. Leaving the pillaging and plundering to AP management. Yep, that's me Viking 6 and Viking1066, slight mix up in my password memory depending on which (Home/Office) PC I am on :-).

[alimo] 28/1/2008 10:20

They should have given a timeous warning by now if the numbers are significantly below what the Davy/Goodbody team have been talking about to prospectors, especially Helium. Hey Viking1066 whos side are you on, and are you the same as Viking6? Still going upwards on 3 buy trades for 36K+. So the MMs must still have some stock to sell. Can anyone tell what the order book is like on Level 2?

[viking1066] 28/1/2008 09:43

Has anyone noticed, but all this share price rise has nothing to do with what management announced? They merely confirmed a media article that a third party was interested in the company.

If the company was not for sale because they believed it was seriously undervalued then they would have shouted how well they did with numbers in 2007 instead of the drivel they put out in the watered down update. Or indeed if they were trying to keep a lid on the real value so that they could buy it themselves cheaply and quickly before the audit is completed, then that is the reason for not coming out with the year end numbers.

[4web] 28/1/2008 07:03

There have been discussions on J&J in the past. On the BB it were pure speculations. I am convinced they know everyone needed there.

[alimo] 27/1/2008 22:00

Well put jellyman2!!

But why sell nanospider - it's probably a key to huge profits down the line? HemCon might not need our Mdoc cos they've got used to using more expensive chitosan(spelling? - manuf from shrimp shells), but they do want nanospider.

Why do you think others want us - in addition to Mdoc as well? They want access to nanospider as well. AMS will (probably grudgingly) want it for all their bandages, but real royalties will come in when J&J want it. We might be just getting to that place where J&J are beginning to get a bit miffed by the amount it's costing to produce all the products to create a screen so Mrs Public just might not see our 'Stops Bleeding Fast' products on the shelves. Before we came on the scene they had it all their own way, and the choice was very limited. Now there's every kind of plaster under the sun on offer, to try to keep us from stealing the market from them. All this will be adding up for them, so nanospider must be yet another thing they have not got. Many years ago I think there was some mention of J&J on this board, but I can't remember in what connection. Maybe 4web will remember?

Has anyone had to use our plasters, and noticed how well the skin around the cut, heals? Maybe this is why we are going to market skin products, that make old wirey gowks like me look young again. Come on AP.! Even I have reason to be impatient, and I don't mean lack of news! I might die first. How sad! Maybe I'll phone them up and ask if I can pilot some of their creams! (grin)

[jellyman2] 27/1/2008 20:55

here here!alimo I for 1 would not like this to be sold under 20p, if at all seems we are on the brink (and well the buyer knows it)of the good times so why sell. moreover why sell it all, this share price justabout covers oral care, so in theory they could sell nanospider,and we should still be worth 15p

[alimo] 27/1/2008 20:35

More (useless?) information = I see that since the beginning of December 2006 there have been 26 posting names making contributions to this BB. I think the prize for the funniest must go to "puffintickler" (can you imagine him or her climbing some sea cliff face, just so to go and tickle some delighted puffin?). And the prize for the most helpful, or some may say unhelpful, post, has to go to "cumnor", who has only posted once to say "." - now I've heard of people say, "Be brief", but isn't that just taking it too far? So, what's the point of this well motivated research?

Well, again just guessing, I wonder whether between the 26 of us, we might have as many as 4 or 5m shares accumulated between us. I think there are about 130m issued and paid up shares, so that might just give us between 3 or 4%. Does this make you feel a bit better - viewing the wider picture. If you all are bigger holders than poor ol' alimo, then the sums are even better and our interest would be at least 5%. So be careful not to sell out Alltracel too cheap, because together we can make a difference to what's accepted or rejected, and we could be spokesmen/spokeswomen to the army of other small investors who, still have to add their tuppence worth here.

The thing that pleases me about this BB, is that so far, but for one or two, we haven't attracted the foul mouthed dingbats that are a plague on other sites. Long may this continue, so more educated/informed guessing will be attracted to give of their wisdom, and help the less informed make judgements on the pros and cons for their holdings. What we say at this important time has the effect of either causing people to pass by, or decide to invest in AP.(if we can get hold of any more shares - they seem to be tightly held right now). As for me, I'll do my best to talk up the shares here, and among my friends and acquaintences. I recommend you do likewise. They are still a steal at this price!

[wes1] 27/1/2008 12:37

The following article was in The Irish Independent a year ago.

Friday January 19 2007

WOUNDCARE specialist Alltracel has signed an agreement with a US leader in haemorrhage control in military markets worth about €1m a year to the company initially.

Alltracel's Czech subsidiary, Nanopeutics, signed the technology and product development deal with HemCon, a major supplier of products that control bleeding and infection and which are used widely by the US military in places like Iraq and Afghanistan.

The companies said yesterday that development work has already started after initial product tests which is expected to lead to a licence and supply agreement.

Shares in Alltracel finished up over 2.5pc at 10p yesterday on the London Stock Exchange.

Alltracel chief executive Tony Richardson said: "This collaboration with HemCon for the military market is another significant milestone for Nanopeutics. HemCon is a true woundcare innovator with unrivalled experience in the specialist military market."

Nanopeutics is the specialist Alltracel subsidiary formed and it focuses on the commercialisation of Nanospider technology.

[4web] 27/1/2008 12:36

let's hope it's not them... they only invest to make a whole lot of more money of it in short term.