Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 10/11/2021 10:02

Don't disagree should have a word with Numis...i have emailed the company and received no response i did speak to the company PR who indicated that the text was changed for commercial sensitivity reasons ( can't fathom that one) and did say they would come back after raising concern with the board ..nothing back from that either. Problem is the brokers can smell decent fees finally out of this ..a number of corporate transactions coming up so numis have been informed and the promise of the whole thing wound up within a few years.Pretty sure they won't want to rock the boat ..think they have overseen this business for many years and have sat back and watched the calamity unfold.

[believer2] 10/11/2021 09:58

Kooba- nothing wrong with excessive bullishness - just had my bubble burst too many times - do agree that feels like something is afoot - hope it is handled correctly! Perhaps you should be working for the broker. You are selling it far better.

[kooba] 10/11/2021 09:42

Interesting comment"Some excessive bullishness on here. ALM seems now to be wholly reliant on Federated coming good.'Reasonably accurate ...I believe that Federated is coming good...so my bullishness is therefore not excessive certainly relative to the discount to hard NAV these trade at.I also believe the two space oriented businesses BridgeComm and Orbital Sidekick would also command up rounds which we well might see soon enough.OcuTerra is early stage but the quality of the folks brought in with the last fundraise AM did not participate in makes it look extremely interesting.Then theres a holding in Touchbistro..may be wrong but might also surprise on the upside at some point.And some good old cash ..which if you discount back means the assets are effectively trading well below 50c in the $Like the assets dont like the management.

[kooba] 10/11/2021 09:27

Federated last fundraise was series C Sept 2019..there was a small extension April 2020. The series C was backed by most existing investors and brought in many new investors including Pennant who also put in further funding in the round extension...so all commitments on basis of post new money $215m valuation.So not that others didn't participate in the round just that AM and Pennant went back for more.AM i believe were diluted in the overall round.https://federatedwireless.com/federated-wireless-secures-51-million-in-series-c-funding-to-accelerate-leadership-in-innovation-and-delivery-of-citizens-band-radio-service-cbrs/https://federatedwireless.com/federated-wireless-secures-13-7-million-to-accelerate-deployment-of-private-wireless-networks/Pennant Investors is a single family office deploying patient capital across public, private and fund structures. The firm is led by Alan Fournier, founder of Pennant Capital Management.Alan Fournier established Pennant Capital Management, L.L.C. in 2001. He started his investment career at Sanford C. Bernstein in 1988, and became a partner in 1990. Three years later, he started and managed the Institutional Middle Market research sales group for Bernstein, which focused on servicing hedge funds and institutions with less than $1 billion in assets under management. Pennant is a long/short equity hedge fund with $2.3 billion in assets under management. Prior to founding Pennant, Fournier was the partner responsible for global equity investments for Appaloosa Management, a $7 billion distressed and event-driven hedge fund managed by David Tepper. He has also been a portfolio manager at Hagler, Mastrovita and Hewitt, and at Pzena Investment Management. Before entering the investment management industry, Fournier spent five years in technology system sales for Digital Equipment, where he was a National Account Manager. A 1983 honors graduate of Wentworth Institute of Technology, Fournier holds a degree in engineering.He wound pennant capital up in 2018 and converted the firm into a family office managing his personal fortune.Seems successful investor who has specialised in technology..he has a guy on the board of FW.

[believer2] 10/11/2021 09:20

Tbh - it does bother me that we are so reliant on FW - I am going to contact the broker today as I think there is a distinct lack of “best practice” here. Speaking from experience this is not how you want your brokerships to behave and curtails any respect from institutions regarding further investment! Will keep you posted.

[spectoacc] 10/11/2021 08:21

Been all about FW a while - well, all about FW and Spin, but we know what happened there ;)

I've no particular angle on FW's next raise, other than going by their history, and ALM's history, and the seemingly blatent attempt to talk up FW's business ahead of the fundraising. If it doesn't work in this market.......

[flyfisher] 10/11/2021 08:14

Some excessive bullishness on here. ALM seems now to be wholly reliant on Federated coming good.

I posted this in oct 2020, after the Federated fundraise.

''I can understand that Schroders who inherited the woodford holding would not participate, but if the technology is good, why would Charter Comm, American Tower, GIC, SBA and Commscope choose not to participate and be diluted.''

Surely they should have a decent understanding of its merits, the majority of co investors not taking up their option is not a bullish sign.

[kooba] 10/11/2021 07:57

Unless of course someone wants to own it then with a control premium ..who knows.See what happens when i have 2 coffees before 8am..

[kooba] 10/11/2021 07:26

I think Federated has come a long way since last fundraise...they are demonstrating real traction ..if they are on target from CMD which I think will prove conservative then one is looking at revenues $17m ( $8m recurring) but more importantly the rate of growth Q1 $2.6m revenues moving to run rate of $40m end of this year ..if one then extrapolates continuing growth into 2022 maybe one can see a run rate of $80m end 2022 and turnover at $60m ..these are off the cuff as I have no additional information than from CMD ..and on target comments and factoring the positivity in messaging.If you are a market leader in an extremely high growth technology field you will not be raising money at four times revenues especially when large part of revenues will be recurring.If take above is correct then can see doubling of pre new money valuation. I also believe there will be strong demand from industry players .. FW already have a good shareholder base and whilst AMs will not be able to hold corner I do not think they will be crammed out by existing and new holders.My personal take...and I hope I'm about right !

[spectoacc] 10/11/2021 06:57

My guess is, they'll fundraise at little higher than last raise, based on ALM no longer being the price-setter.

[kooba] 10/11/2021 06:56

Meanwhile Nvidia Mkt cap $766.43B feature Orbital SIdekick in their COP26 address..must be in the right space...:) https://twitter.com/orbitalsidekick/status/1458142360634740738?s=21

[kooba] 10/11/2021 06:54

Yes I think they are maybe reassessing the communications strategy and who approves releases. Have heard various excuses on the 4 times release ..but basically looks like a balls up...led to believe there may be further comment around the messaging but AM seem to want to ignore there was a situation where what appears incorrect price sensitive information on their largest investment was out in the public domain.My only take across limited research and comment is that Federated Wireless is going very very well..hopefully that will be fully reflected in valuation of any corporate activity that Numis have been signalling.Still think good reasons to be optimistic on boost to hard Nav in the short(ish) term.

[believer2] 09/11/2021 23:08

Federated normally post daily on Twitter - nothing !

[kooba] 08/11/2021 21:09

Yes it's still up there ..though everyone seems to be furiously backtracking as far as I can tell. If they want to cover their tracks taking down the press release should be a start!

[imnotspartacus] 08/11/2021 20:25

The last year has seen 4 times the company’s expected revenue growth...

[buffettjnr] 08/11/2021 19:23

Fair point

[bobonumber1] 08/11/2021 18:40

How would federated or any other asset be monetised? Paying out in dividends shafts larger pi holders on the sale of the asset. Not sure what institutions pay tax wise on dividends? My thoughts An option could be to give ALM holders shares in federated. Those shares can then be sold in the event of an ipo. I can't see institutional holders wanting an unquoted though. Or allocate ALM holders a percentage of the floated company dependant on their ALM holding.

[kooba] 08/11/2021 13:39

Having said that one presumes FW is doing very well and that a fundraise should command an up-round reflecting the progress and traction being seen...the uplift of such a round far greater if the revenue read correct.

[kooba] 08/11/2021 12:41

Have to disagree this is absolutely not "small stuff" . 2020 revs about $5m this year with forecast $17m for 2021 so we're looking at 240% jump. If it is 4 times that growth rate ie 960% jump takes us to $48m revenues.Now these kinds of high growth businesses are often valued at multiples of revenue between 10-20 times revenues seen depending on growth rates and sector.At $17m revs $170m-$340m valuationAt $48m revs $480m - $$960m valuationCurrent valuation $215m (26p per share of group hard NAV 46p estimate)If they can achieve a pre new money value of say $430m that would double the hard NAV of FW holding to 52p (72p group)Therefore highly significant to valuation for this company that is looking to raise additional funding soon. Therefore highly price sensitive to valuing Allied Minds as FW is by far the company's largest asset.

[buffettjnr] 08/11/2021 11:58

I don’t think is material. The point is FW is doing great. Sweating the small stuff will just lead to frustration

[kooba] 08/11/2021 11:36

Normally on a press release the board would be sent a draft for comment before release. If that did not happen then the board certainly should have been sent the PR when it went out. One presumes Harry Rein had no issue at this point with the content.I understand that shareholders questioned the release on Thursday with the company...yet nothing came out on Friday save for a revision of the PR still containing the 4 times revenue growth estimate. Who checked this??So the Chair of Allied Minds who is also the Chair of Federated Wireless allowed the 4 times revs to stand in public for the whole of Friday when the shares rose and still made no comment...although he must have been aware of the price sensitive nature of the release..he would also be in a very strong position to have known if the release was accurate..if it was inaccurate as chair of both companies why do nothing but allow a revised PR containing same information to go out.Which leaves the question..why is this man running this company and what exactly are FW revenues forecast to be?And we wonder why the shares trade at such a discount to NAV !!

[bobonumber1] 08/11/2021 10:32

Incredible.

[kooba] 08/11/2021 08:08

Yep not good.
Corrected one without revenue growth in header is still the one up there..with “The last year has seen 4 times the company’s expected revenue growth, its customer and partner base expand rapidly into new verticals, and the number of active CBRS devices grow to more than 70,000.” Not the version Allied Minds have released.Not good.
Expect this will be deleted later to cover tracks!
But my earlier post cut and pasted from this morning.

[spectoacc] 08/11/2021 07:23

Embarrassing.