Allied Irish Banks Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 16:08

best wishes to you and yours aswell

[ch1ck] 23/12/2010 16:02

Napoleon

Thanks for the tips not bothered about the loss I was glad to catch it in time

Merry Xmas

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 15:48

DUBLIN, Ireland (23 December 2010) ("AIB") [NYSE:AIB] - Allied Irish Banks,
p.l.c. ("AIB" or the "Company") has today received notice that the High Court
issued a Direction Order (the "Order") under the Credit Institutions
(Stabilisation) Act 2010 (the "Act") directing AIB to issue immediately
approximately €3.7 billion (net of expenses) of new equity capital ("Capital
Increase") to the National Pensions Reserve Fund Commission ("NPRFC"). The new
shares to be issued to the NPRFC will comprise ordinary shares and convertible
non-voting shares ("CNV shares"), to be issued at a price of €0.3793 per new
ordinary share and €0.3396 per new CNV share.

This additional equity will ensure that AIB meets the year-end regulatory
capital requirements of the Central Bank of Ireland. It is expected that the
Capital Increase will be completed shortly. To facilitate completion before
year-end, AIB's shareholders will not be entitled to subscribe for the new
equity and pre-emption rights will be disapplied. The Order also includes a
direction that AIB increases its authorised share capital and adopts amended
articles of association in place of the existing articles of association of the
Company to give effect to the Capital Increase.

The NPRFC Holding Following the Capital Increase

Pursuant to the Capital Increase, AIB will issue 675,107,845 new ordinary shares
to the NPRFC. Upon closing of the Capital Increase, and in order to facilitate
the ongoing disposal of AIB's Polish interests, the NPRFC will hold 49.9% of the
ordinary shares of the Company, representing 876,220,621 ordinary shares.
Following the Capital Increase, AIB will have a total number of 1,755,953,148
ordinary shares in issue. In addition, AIB will issue to the NPRFC a further
10,489,899,564 CNV shares, which will rank pari passu with the ordinary shares
other than in respect of voting, and will be convertible into ordinary shares on
a one-for-one basis. The NPRFC intends to increase its holding in AIB's ordinary
shares by converting all of the CNV shares following completion of the sale of
AIB's Polish interests. This would increase the NPRFC's ownership of the
ordinary shares of the Company to 92.8%.

Further Capital Measures to be Undertaken by AIB

Pursuant to the Capital Increase, AIB will receive net proceeds of approximately
€3.7 billion and will be required to generate approximately €6.1 billion of
additional equity capital in order to meet its revised PCAR equity capital
requirement of €9.765 billion, as announced on 28 November 2010. AIB is
considering a number of options to fulfill this requirement prior to 28 February
2011, including the possibility of issuing further new shares to the State and
undertaking liability management exercises in relation to its subordinated
capital.

Preference Shares

It is also anticipated that prior to 28 February 2011, subject to receipt of
appropriate authorities, the NPRFC will convert up to €3.5 billion of its
existing 2009 Preference Shares into ordinary or CNV shares at a price of €0.342
per share.

Delisting from the Official List and Main Market of the London Stock Exchange
and Move to the Enterprise Securities Market of the Irish Stock Exchange

The High Court has directed AIB to apply to cancel its listing of ordinary
shares on the Main Securities Market of the Irish Stock Exchange ("ISE") ("Irish
Main Market Delisting") and to apply for admission to trading on the Enterprise
Securities Market ("ESM") of the ISE.

The High Court has also directed AIB to apply to cancel the admission of its
ordinary shares to the Official List maintained by the UK Financial Services
Authority and to cancel trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange
("LSE") ("UK Delisting").

The Capital Increase by year-end is, in the opinion of AIB's Board of Directors,
critical for the continued activities of the Company and cannot be fully
completed while AIB remains listed on the main markets of the ISE and LSE. Given
the current financial position of AIB, the Capital Increase is required to
ensure that AIB complies with the minimum regulatory capital requirements of the
Central Bank of Ireland at 31 December 2010. Failure to complete the transaction
prior to year-end would likely prompt further action from the Irish State,
including the possibility of full nationalisation. As a result, the Company
believes that cancellation of the main market listings is in the best interests
of AIB and its stakeholders as a whole.

The Company and the State wish to ensure that shareholders retain access to a
public trading facility for their shares. Shareholders' ownership of the
existing ordinary shares will be unaffected by this move. The Company will
advise all shareholders of this move to the ESM in a letter to be sent to
shareholders by year-end. In the meantime, information in the form of questions
and answers will shortly be made available on the Company's investor relations
website.

The proposed admission to trading on the ESM will mean that AIB will continue to
have market oversight, disclosure and reporting obligations. It will also
facilitate AIB's intention to maintain investor relationships and market analyst
coverage.

The ordinary shares will continue to trade on the ISE up to and including 25
January 2011. It is expected that the Company will be delisted from the Main
Securities Market of the ISE following the close on 25 January 2011, being 20
business days from the date of this announcement and that the Company currently
expects to be admitted to trading on the ESM on 26 January 2011.

Given the timetable for the Capital Increase, the Company will not therefore
seek shareholder approval for the UK Delisting in reliance on UK Listing Rule
5.2.7. The Company's ordinary shares will continue to trade on the LSE up to and
including 25 January 2011. Following the UK Delisting, the Company's ordinary
shares will trade on the ESM.

The Sale of AIB's Polish Interests

In the Order, the High Court has directed AIB to complete the sale of its Polish
interests to Banco Santander S.A. pursuant to the Share Purchase Agreement dated
10 September 2010 when all the regulatory conditions other than the approval of
AIB's shareholders have been satisfied, but not before the admission to trading
on the ESM and the UK Delisting have occurred. As a result, there will not be a
requirement for shareholder approval, an associated circular or an extraordinary
general meeting in order to complete that sale.

Cancellation of NPRFC Warrants

In connection with the Capital Increase, the Company has agreed with the
Minister and the NPRFC that the 294,251,819 warrants to subscribe for ordinary
shares in AIB, granted to the NPRFC as part of the Government's 2009 €3.5
billion recapitalisation, are to be cancelled in consideration of the payment of
approximately €52.5 million by AIB to the NPRFC.

The AIB Board of Directors

AIB's Board of Directors acknowledges the continued support of the Minister for
Finance and the Irish State. It notes its new duty under the Act to have regard
to the public interest in the performance of their functions and, if that public
interest conflicts with the best interests of the Company, that the new
statutory requirement provides for the public interest to prevail.

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 15:39

mCh1ck if you like mouchel, check out costain, got the heads up there the other day from a friend. 9% isnt too bad, but any loss is hard to stomach, so i'm sorry for you. i think if they were re-listed on iex then maybe it would be time to get some, just a small holding as a very very long term punt, maybe put them in certificate form and leave them to your grandchildren in your will lol! i think within a year or so when things have settled and we know where aib stands, then i think it would be time to buy. if you fancy trying to make your 10% back, check out REM, bit of a dip today, so reckon you could easily make your money back, and even more over the next while. they dont have much at the moment, going into rare earth minerals, with david lenigas and bruce rowan on board. please dyor and this is not investment advice, or a ramp, but i have a nice holding there and am up over 100% profit in the space of about 2 months, so feel free to check it out. best of luck with the rest of your investments

[ch1ck] 23/12/2010 15:29

Napoleon

This was a trade too far and you were right. I got burned today and lost 9% I need to do the sums but I should be down no more than a grand or so with the gains made on this share over the last month or so.

I thought of leaving some stock in to be relisted in the Irish exchange but I can make more in stock such as Mouchel Parkman and Infrasrata which are on the up.

Safe trading

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 15:21

what is an interesting fact though is their listing on the enteprise exchange or whatever they call it these days. a bit like aim, the iex is for smaller growth companies and the likes, yet, aib, which once had a market cap of 20billin (haha) at 23euro a share, and which was reporting bumper profits, and was the envy of a lot of the western world, is now such a tiddler! It may be something to tell the grandchildren, how it really went from boom, to bust in 3 years?

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 15:17

well said cudman! the only thing i would be worried about is that should it turn out that they do lose their listing, but "with the intention of re-listing" or giving value back to equity holders (a la anglo, which obvioulsy never transpired surprise surprise!) i just dont think there will be anything there left for us. I do think however, that it would be possible to make a few quid by trading in and out, probably on a daily basis if volumes remain half decent, but the risk reward ratio doesnt tot up in my mind, for a massive risk, i.e. we already (can i say categorically?)know that it will be 90%+ state owned, the reward is what, 100% double in price to 65p, something we havnt seen in a very very long time? doubtful in my mind in the medium term, i think there are many many other shares out there that could multibag without the same amount of risk.
all in my humble, and nai, not putting anything here, but will keep watching with interest, good luck to all those invested

[cudman] 23/12/2010 14:48

It's not strictly over. Will relist some time in the future and if you have the patience to hold them for that period there is possibly a profit to be made.
It's anyones guess, but I would estimate the government could sell back down below 75% in 4-8 years.
They are going to be "overcapitalised", getting rid of bad/impaired loans and are still going to be a big player in Ireland - so return to profitability not completely out of the question.
It is risky, I'm not going to risk my own money but I still feel there is potential profit to be made.

All IMO, no advice intended!

[m w] 23/12/2010 13:57

still buys going through HELLO its over

[cudman] 23/12/2010 13:31

92.8% government owned. Delisting from ISE and listing on ESM.

[bongo bwana] 23/12/2010 11:37

There is a serious danger that London/Uk based investors do not have the FULL picture here.

But then, perhaps most of the Irish dont know whats going on in City of London either.

[linney3] 23/12/2010 11:33

10% of something - at best - is better than 100% of nothing.My guess is Lenihan will give AIB a soft landing and perhaps a chance to earn back a greater percentage.But not being involved in AIB I am simply airing a view and if I were an investor I would selland buy back on the news as the share price will tumble either way

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 11:11

indeed, boi looking much better in my eyes. The government dont want to fully nationalise aib, i.e. they will try to keep their market listing even if its only a couple of percent of the issued shares, so it will be interesting what might happen. I met a few ex-colleagues last night who work/worked for aib, things pretty bad in their from an employee point of view, and these arent big executives, just the normal joe soaps, not nice listing to the stories!

[ch1ck] 23/12/2010 11:09

Cheers Napoleon

I am following the news flow on this we just have different views on the outcome.

Time will tell who called it right

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 11:05

ch1ck best of luck to you, but i think you would have been better off setting your cash on fire as at least it would have given you some warmt during these long cold night!

[napoleon111] 23/12/2010 11:04

by lunch time lenihan will have got his order thorugh the high court and thats that then, 90%+ nationalised...it was fun whilst it lasted but time to bail me thinks!
PS: i'm not deramping, just listen to the radio and it says it all

[bongo bwana] 23/12/2010 10:09

Before the Irish piles in €3.7b to support the bank which in turn will issue more shares and effectively 99% nationalise itself ??????????

[ch1ck] 23/12/2010 09:50

Bought another 21K today I don't think I will catch the exact bottom but this is a decent enough fall for me to get back in.

[ch1ck] 22/12/2010 17:30

Crafty some one disagrees with us and there where 5 million plus shares traded today with a lot of AT trades.

Some one is building a position while the sellers have the upper hand.

I know what I posted earlier but I can see a bit of resistance at the 38 cent level with UK banks performing strongly this may propell ALBK up from this level I can see the next few days as being key.

As a hedge I bought 9k worth today as the gains can be large and rapid in this one.

This is not a recommendation as this is risky just putting my cards on the table

[craftyspeculator] 22/12/2010 12:20

Anyone holding ALBK is dicing with wipeout....market cap of €400mn yet value of zero. Recipe for a wipeout:

Irish Independent

Brokers recommend AIB despite imminent wipeout

Wednesday December 22 2010

TWO stockbrokers are still recommending that investors buy shares in AIB -- even though the bank's shareholders look set to be wiped out by imminent nationalisation.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows Credit Suisse rates AIB as an "outperform" while Societe General ranks the Irish bank a "buy".

The Bloomberg data also lists Dublin-broker Goodbody's, which AIB is in the process of selling, as having an "add" recommendation on the bank.

Analysts at Goodbody's last night said that all its Irish bank recommendations had been "pulled" recently in view of the sector's volatility.

Shares in AIB closed at about 42c a piece last night, giving the bank a market capitalisation of just over €455m.

The Government hopes to put in about €4.5bn of new cash by the end of the year, decimating the bank's existing shareholders.

Any remaining shareholder equity will be diluted again in February, when the bank must take in another €5.3bn of capital.

Despite this bleak prospect, Bloomberg data shows just three stockbrokers have a sell or equivalent recommendations on the near-nationalised AIB.

AlphaValue rates the stock at "sell", JP Morgan has an "underweight" recommendation, RBS has "hold" and Barclays has "underweight/neutral.

Of the Irish brokers, Davy has a "neutral" recommendation on AIB, while NCB has a "hold" on the bank.

Brokers have been strongly criticised for issuing glowing recommendations on stocks in the run-up to the financial collapse.

[ch1ck] 22/12/2010 10:10

Looks like the 35 cents price will be hit and we have a good chance to punch lower to 25 cents as assentiment is low on this stock which means it could under shoot by quite a lot.


Watching.

[ch1ck] 16/12/2010 12:00

Having made a quite nice profit over the last few weeks I a have sold 75% of my holdings over the last few days.

I think the price is going to ne hammered with speculation on the remaining PIIGS bailout

May get back in if the price goes sub 30p

Safe trading

[crosswire] 15/12/2010 06:48

AIB said last night it was "reviewing the draft legislation and would continue to hold discussions with the State authorities regarding the receipt of capital".

A further update will be provided following the conclusion of the discussions, the bank said.

AIB must raise an additional €9.8 billion to cover loan losses and boost capital under the EU-IMF plan to over-capitalise the banks.

The lender, which is 18.6 per cent-owned by the State, is heading for effective or full nationalisation following the receipt of further Government cash.

This could push the State's shareholding to full 100 per cent ownership or a stake of close to this level, should the Government choose not to retain a nominal listing on the stock market which would allow the State to sell down its interest in the bank over time.

[hvs] 14/12/2010 16:08

lol !!!!

LOL !!!!!

Irish Bankers want taxpayers to wish them a very melly melly chlistmas

Are they having a LAUGH ?

Nah they are having a BONUS.

lol !!!!!!!!