Allied Irish Banks Share Discussion Threads

[ch1ck] 22/11/2010 08:00

I dont agree I think it is not in the interest of the Irish Gov to take on all the risk these especially AIB will stay independent

[lbo] 21/11/2010 23:50

Odds are high that Albk and BOI are nationalised as condition of IMF bailout!

[hermana3] 20/11/2010 10:31

Will this sad bankrupt lot be forced to merge with the only insti not neccessarily walking dead,ie ILP?

[linney3] 19/11/2010 10:20

Tom.B - Good explaination!

O/T - Did you get any back lash on the OXS email post? Reason I ask is I managed to buy a quantity - just over a 100k and made a good day profit of £1500

[tom.b] 19/11/2010 09:47

Well I'm not sure but the way I see it is that Ireland has an ideal copout...

No use whining or talking about the GPO now
.................
THERE'S AN engaging if somewhat postliterate e-mail going around the place on the subject of debt. Adjusted for syntax, punctuation and grammar, it goes something like this:

A rich American arrives in a village, walks into the only hotel, places a €100 note on the counter and asks to inspect the rooms with a view to deciding whether to stay the night.

The hotelier hands him a bunch of keys and, as the American disappears into the lift, runs next door to pay the €100 he owes the local butcher. The butcher runs across the road to pay the farmer to whom he owes €100. The farmer goes down to the pub to discharge the €100 debt he owes there. The publican gives the note to the local hooker, with whom he's been doing some business, and she runs up to the hotel to settle the €100 bill she's run up for rooms.

The American comes down after inspecting the rooms, which he found unsatisfactory. He returns to the desk, picks up the €100, walks out of the hotel and leaves town. The parable concludes: "No one produced anything, no one earned anything but the whole village is now out of debt and looking forward to the future with a lot more optimism".

It's a diverting hypothesis carrying some important truths. One is that insolvency is sometimes a technical problem, rather than, say, a means issue. Money is a technology, not a moral quantity. Economies move in mysterious ways and economists in general haven't a clue how it all works.

Since we Irish long ago lost any sense of connection between what we do and what we feel entitled to earn, this story should enable us to feel hopeful about the prospects of the serendipitous nature of global economics eventually coming to our rescue. It worked before, so why not again? What we are suffering is not some absolute failure of resources or productive capacities. There has been no blight. All that has happened is that the global forces to which we committed most of our hopes have left us high and dry.

Due to the malfunctioning of the system, an imbalance of capital resources has built up on one side of the equation. A technical adjustment is necessary – that is all.

A persistent refrain of recent public conversation has been the "reputational damage" we face by virtue of having to be bailed-out by the EU and/or the IMF. Why? Was not European solidarity central to the argument for going into the euro zone in the first place – that our "partners" would give us a digout if we got into trouble? Why is loss of sovereignty now a problem when for 30 years sovereignty has been a "sacred cow" standing between us and progress?

There is nothing new or shocking about bailouts. General Motors, one of the world's most iconic companies is now back on four wheels after last year getting a massive bailout from the US treasury. When people can talk without irony of "Ireland Inc", why should we complain about being put into examinership?

It's silly to talk about Ireland as a "delinquent state", when "where we are" is the inevitable consequence of the kind of economy we chose to pursue.

[hvs] 19/11/2010 09:00

Pity is they have now engineered the fatal demise of Ireland. A proud and
very friendly country.

Pity really. They should all be locked up.

[hermana3] 19/11/2010 08:58

Fianna Fail has been morally bankrupt since they booted out Jack Lynch. Venal Haughey and his sychophantic lackeys presided over its fatal demise...

[hvs] 19/11/2010 08:54

ITS BANKRUPT

Long live Fianna FAILED.

[goggin] 19/11/2010 08:43

Only to crash and burn - beware - this is a bear traf - the market will initally rise - then fall as reality sets in -

[ch1ck] 19/11/2010 08:05

up 11% looks like this is realy starting to move now

[m w] 18/11/2010 22:22

ipm looks a better bet

[lbo] 17/11/2010 16:15

40,500 mortgages now in serious trouble



By the end of September last, there were 40,472 mortgages in arrears of 90 days or more with a massive 23.5pc rise in cases of lenders taking mortgage holders to court, latest figures from the Central Bank show.

By the end of September, 40,472 mortgage accounts, or 5.1pc, were in arrears for more than 90 days of which 28,049, or 3.6pc of the total mortgage accounts, were more than 180 days in arrears.

In value terms, E7.8 billion was owed in relation to all accounts more than 90 days in arrears, of which E5.5 billion was owed for accounts more than 180 days in arrears. Mortgage accounts in arrears for more than 90 days increased by 11.1pc since the end of June 2010.

[robizm] 17/11/2010 12:55

I bought natwest bonds for 29p in the £ and now are trading at £1.1 so needs a bit of research

[hvs] 17/11/2010 12:12

Exactly and the politicians donot want you to know that cause they want to give the banks more taxpayers money.

[dealy] 17/11/2010 12:06

if the bonds are trading at 50 cents then the equity is worthless.

[lbo] 17/11/2010 11:43

AIB's bonds fell on speculation investors will be forced to take losses under a bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

The lender's E868 million of 12.5pc subordinated bonds due 2019 were quoted at a bid price of 51 cents on the euro, down from about 54 cents yesterday, according to Jefferies International in London.

AIB's Stg 368 million of 12.5pc 2019 notes were quoted at 50 pence on the pound, down from 52, according to Jefferies.

[bongo bwana] 16/11/2010 14:07

Cuz you gave Ur pals in them the keys???????????

[hvs] 16/11/2010 11:23

Why are JAILS in Ireland EMPTY ?

[kajshares] 16/11/2010 10:43

Im not too knowledgeable about bank stocks so I would appreciate all the help I can get.

Are Citibank really shorting AIB now or simply covering purchases at much lower prices? They exercised some PUT options at 65 and 50. Now 100m @ 38. They only have 2m left so that is good. Perhaps they are simply selling having bought all they need in the late 20s and early thirties.

However, the market's really holding this up well. Is my assessment correct?

[lbo] 15/11/2010 10:16

Lenihan may seek EU aid "just for banks"

[lbo] 15/11/2010 10:15

Allied Irish Banks Plc's deposit outflow since June is on a similar scale to that experienced by Bank of ireland Plc's, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

[crosswire] 13/11/2010 12:39

Allied Irish Banks, plc. (ADR) (Public, NYSE:AIB) surged 10.64% to $1.04 as the concern over the Ireland's default eases after finance ministerBrian Lenihan reiterated this morning that the country is "fully funded until next june."

[crosswire] 13/11/2010 11:26

IMF Ready to Help Ireland, If It Makes Request for Aid, Strauss-Kahn Says

By Kathleen Chu - Nov 13, 2010 7:42 AM GMT

The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, its managing director said, as market concern about the country's debt crisis continues.

"Everybody knows that the situation with Ireland, it's a difficult situation," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss- Kahn told reporters today in Yokohama, Japan. "So far I haven't received any kind of request. I think they can manage well. If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready."

In a conference call of European Central Bank officials around noon Frankfurt time yesterday, Ireland was pressed to seek outside help within days, said a person briefed on the discussion who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ireland could draw on the 60 billion euro ($82 billion) segment of the broader 750-billion-euro fund set up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund in May, Irish state broadcaster RTE said, without saying where it obtained the information. The smaller pool is funded directly by the European Commission, the EU's Brussels-based executive branch.

Bailing out Ireland's financial system could cost as much as 50 billion euros under a "stress case" scenario compiled by the Finance Ministry and central bank. The country's gross funding need for 2011 will be 23.5 billion euros, falling to 18.6 billion euros in 2014, the nation's debt agency said yesterday.

Irish bonds rose from a record low yesterday, gaining for the first time in 14 days as traders bet a bailout was near.

Strauss-Kahn, who is attending this weekend's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, also told reporters today that Ireland's debt problems are mostly linked with "one big bank" and are different from those of Greece.

"It's not the same thing as Greece's problem," which was caused by a lack of economic competitiveness in addition to fiscal woes, he said.

The Irish government nationalized Anglo Irish Bank Corp. in January 2009 as loan losses spiraled. The government also has taken a 36 percent stake in Bank of Ireland Plc and is preparing to take a majority stake in Allied Irish Banks Plc.

EU countries established the bailout fund in May to protect the euro area from the fallout of the Greek-led debt crisis. Speculation has grown that Ireland would need it after a housing-led recession and the need to save its biggest lenders plunged it into fiscal turmoil.

[crosswire] 13/11/2010 07:50

The Department of Finance issued a statement reiterating that Ireland had made no application for emergency EU funding. "Ireland is fully funded into the middle of 2011."

Meanwhile NCB Stockbrokers said in a report yesterday that it was "rational" for investors to buy Irish bonds as prices overstate the likelihood of default.

"On the assumption of a 70 per cent recovery rate, the Irish 10-year bond yield and 10-year credit-default swap imply that there is an 85 per cent probability of Ireland defaulting some time in the next 10 years," Brian Devine, chief economist at NCB, wrote.

"This overstates the probability of Ireland defaulting, and we, therefore, conclude that it is rational for investors to purchase Irish bonds as opposed to risk-free bonds at the prevailing rates."