Alkemy Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 31/3/2014 15:02

They interfere because by and large it doesn't work as a truly free market. Hopefully, over coming years we'll see the rise of many small energy providers who offer genuine competition and a fairer deal for customers, coupled with the breaking up of the 6 behemoths that currently rig the market and who carry no commercial risk whatsoever.

On the Nimbys, they're just rather sad people who live in a little bubble where they have rights and no responsibilities.

[angus17] 29/3/2014 09:52

radio 4 this am had somebody on talking about recommissioning mothballed gas stations.

Just as ALK position themselves the gov't will no doubt go and do something that will go and damage our business model. Why oh why do we let the government interfere with a supposedly privatised energy industry.

[leoboy] 28/3/2014 16:46

a little more on Maltby :

[leoboy] 28/3/2014 16:37

ALK seeks gas x Mossfield Colliery , Stoke :

[truffle] 28/3/2014 11:33

Someone appears to have bought 1.5 million shares at 42p this morning.

[spaceparallax] 27/3/2014 18:57

There are NIMBYs everywhere - we have them screaming and shouting about housebuilding and wind turbines locally. There's always a common factor - they're well set up, happy with their lot and sod the rest.
At least with fracking there's a more compelling environmental case and the whole issue isn't helped when greedy frackers-in-waiting saying that the gas from this source will be no cheaper than currently and by the way they'll throw minute crumbs from the table to pacify local objectors.
I'm not fully against it having read an objective, informed assessment of the risks by eminent geotechnical expert Robert Mair; that said, the risks would only be minimised effectively if operators are under very close scrutiny. Explorers certainly need to offer a much better deal sweetener before they're likely to succeed in convincing the public that the merits outweigh the risks and that they'll indemnify communities against environmental and settlement risks.

[dan de lion] 26/3/2014 19:07

Shale, sooner or later there is going to be a big scramble to get this gas out of the ground, with ALK already owning lucrative area`s and with licences in place someone is going to get mighty interested in picking this up!

[leoboy] 26/3/2014 17:02

bit more from the Inde on 21-03-14 www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/derek-pain-while-avation-is-flying-high-alkane-is-digging-deep-9208921.html

[leoboy] 26/3/2014 16:57

bit of a resume via OilBarrel whilst we wait :
Poweralternatives: Independent Gas-To-Power Producer Alkane Energy Enjoys A Stellar Year In 2013 With The Share Price 77.3 Per Cent

26 Mar 2014 by Stewart Dalby

Just because it was the company's broker VSA Capital that said it, it does not mean that it is not true. Fast growing, independent coal mine methane (CMM)- to- gas and power as well as power response company Alkane Energy did have a stellar year last year. By VSA's reckoning in the 12 months ending December 31 2013 revenue and PBT came in ahead of its own estimates (£20.6 million and £3.4m vs £19m and £3.3m respectively).

Output was 15 per cent to the good at 192 GWh, installed generating capacity increased to 83 MW from 70 MW in 2012, revenue was 40 per cent better and adjusted PBT 17 per cent up. As a result, the share price at one point was 77 per cent up at 51 pence against a low of 28p, although some of the increase could have been due to expectations about ALK's shale gas acreage. The shares are back to 42p per cent now, but that is still a 62 per cent rise in the 52 week period. Yes, all- in-all a stellar year.

There was a sort of exceptional item in that a diversification into design build and operate (DBO), which includes anaerobic digestion plants, had a particularly good period. ALK's other broker Liberum estimates that of the £20.6 million revenue, over £6 million came from DBO. Alkane expects that contribution to be more like £4m going forward.

But leaving aside DBO, Alkane's performance was powered by three factors. First, organic growth and expansion by acquisition in CMM. Second, firm power prices in the UK, where Alkane exclusively operates and third good prices in auctions for short term operating reserve (STOR).

This means power response. Gas companies can earn money by participating in the UK fuel reserve programme in that they provide short term operating reserve to the National Grid when, say, wind plants do not work and can get paid by being on standby for the rest of the year.

Alkane now devotes 36 MW of its capacity to power response activities. In 2013 Alk derived £3.1 of its revenue from power response, more than double what it made in 2012. Post the period end the company acquired the 7.5 MW Whedale site for £1.5m. This will raise Alkane's overall capacity to 90 MW and will help the company realise its target of 50 MW of power for STOR by 2015.

In terms of UK prices, these held up at £53/MWh for most of the year, which historically speaking is quite firm. In its core methane gas-to-power business Alkane added two new sites of its own, but output was boosted by the acquisition of the 11MW Maltby and a contribution here exceeded expectations as integration went faster than expected.

Going forward there should be a further contribution from Maltby. There has been some concern about prices which have fallen by £4 /MWh recently because it has been a windy winter and wind power has been available. However Alkane has hedged around 59 per cent of its expected output at £53/ MWh.

And, of course, there is the shale potential. The group has 800km 2 over 13 Petroleum and Development licences. Alkane has 100 per cent in these licences which cover a lot of hydrocarbon options including natural gas, CMM, coal bed Methane (CBM) as well as shale. But 50 per cent of the acreage is in what is known as the Bowland Shale in the north of England. It is thought to be one of the most highly prospective shale areas in the UK.

Alkane is currently assessing a report which says there is potential for prospective shale gas volumes on its acreage. The company is considering a number of options with regards to this potential including undertaking further work on the licences, farm outs and partial or full divestment of its interests.Liberum has set a target price of 44p without anything in for the shale. VSA's TP is 48p and again without anything in for the shale.

[truffle] 21/3/2014 12:05

Presumably Miton Group are thinking along similar lines as they have just increased their holding to over 5%. Or else they think Alkane is a good investment in its own right based on its electricity generating business.
Either way, its good to see an investment fund increasing its holding.

[spaceparallax] 21/3/2014 09:10

Lowering gas prices would imho affect ALK although not in the short-term; that said, with the current Crimea crisis, if the World is brave enough to apply hard sanctions to Russia that surely can only result in a sharp upward move in gas prices as they retaliate.

[mach100] 18/3/2014 19:15

Or is the possible link between shale and earthquakes causing are think on shale licenses? Maybe the market is pricing this in.

[dan de lion] 18/3/2014 13:51

One thing is for sure if the Russians retaliate to sanctions by cutting Gas supplies then Gas is going to become bloody expensive, making Shale look like the thing to go for and in a hurry!

[asparks] 18/3/2014 13:19

time to top up I think

[investopia] 18/3/2014 10:21

Is the shale-gas potential being revalued in the light of falling gas prices?

Perhaps we are learning how much was in the price for shale?

[puffintickler] 18/3/2014 10:09

I can't see that gas prices will have much effect on Alkane. They mainly sell electricity and that is priced a year ahead. They have a couple of gas producing sites so there may be some small effect but not much.

Today's price action must have another explanation.

[themariner] 18/3/2014 10:08

A precipitous decline. Luck I sold out at 42 - only to see it hit nearly 50p in the following weeks. Certainly looking to re-purchase in the low 30's. But what real reason for the decline?

I sense the market taking a slightly more sceptical tone generally, and especially to story-stock blue sky valuations. But Alk is hardly a story stock and it didn't hit truly silly levels.

Maybe just a mean reversion, and a slight over-correction.

[dan de lion] 18/3/2014 09:48

Surely cheaper gas is good for Alkane?

[investopia] 18/3/2014 09:40

Looks exposed down to 30p now. Would be tempting then.

[angus17] 18/3/2014 08:23

There was a brief comment on bbc 4 this am about Russia and gas prices and how the warm winter has knocked gas prices down. As mentioned in previous post I think profits will have been impacted this winter at ALK.

Short term downwards pressure but medium term still a buy me thinks.

[cyfran101] 18/3/2014 00:54

I think it will bounce between 40-44 until whatever news they announce re' their licences.

[mach100] 17/3/2014 18:53

A news report hints at undervalued assets and the share price drops. You gotta love Alkane.

[cyfran101] 17/3/2014 00:37

I've got a feeling that Alkane may have to drill a couple of wells to prove them up before getting a reasonable offer. Cuadrilla have, despite all the protests, only drilled three wells. Maybe something to consider.