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Analysts' Consensus

Mean consensus
BUY

Number of Analysts
9

Last Close Price
6.49 EUR

Average target price
11.39 EUR
Spread / Average Target
+75.53%

High Price Target
17 EUR
Spread / Highest target
+161.94%

Low Price Target
6 EUR
Spread / Lowest Target
-7.55%

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[gibbs1] 25/11/2023 20:21

ALD - EURONEXT Paris

Last Price
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8 February 2024
Q4 and FY 2023 results

[florenceorbis] 23/11/2023 09:26

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[the grumpy old men] 22/11/2023 18:53

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[the grumpy old men] 05/11/2023 07:25

Ayvens reports third quarter and nine months 2023 results

November 03, 2023 at 02:31 am EDT



PRESS RELEASE

QUARTERLY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Ayvens1 reports third quarter and nine months 2023 results2

EARNING ASSETS3 UP 14.1% VS. SEPTEMBER 20224 UNDERPINNED BY THE INCREASE IN VEHICLE VALUE
LARGEST GLOBAL MULTI-BRAND EV5 FLEET: 505 THOUSAND AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2023
LEASING CONTRACT AND SERVICES MARGINS UP 61.6% IN Q3 2023 VS. Q3 2022 AND STABLE ON A LIKE-FOR-LIKE BASIS6
UCS RESULT PER UNIT7 AT EUR 1,033 IN Q3 2023 AFTER THE IMPACT OF REDUCTION IN DEPRECIATION COSTS8 (VS. EUR 3,014 IN Q3 2022), IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS
COST TO INCOME RATIO (EXCLUDING UCS RESULT) AT 61.1% VS. 57.0% IN Q3 20226
NET INCOME (GROUP SHARE): EUR 226.2 MILLION9 IN Q3 2023, DOWN 28.9% VS. EXCEEDINGLY HIGH Q3 2022 BASE. IMPACT OF VOLATILITY OF MARK TO MARKET OF HEDGING INSTRUMENTS AND DECREASE IN UCS PROFITS
CET 1 RATIO AT 12.3% AS AT END SEPTEMBER 2023


Q3 2023 results highlights

Total fleet10 3.394 million contracts managed worldwide at end September 2023
Funded fleet 2.691 million vehicles, up 3.4%11 vs. end September 2022
Gross operating income at EUR 814.9 million, up 25.4% vs. Q3 2022 and down by 6.7% on a like-for-like basis and excluding non-recurring items12
Operating expenses at EUR 448.7 million, x2 vs. Q3 2022 and up 6.5% on a like-for-like basis and excluding non-recurring items
Cost of risk13 at a low level: 18 bps vs. 23 bps in Q3 2022
Result from discontinued operations at EUR +14.0 million, related to the disposal of ALD’s remedies entities

On 3 November 2023, Tim Albertsen, CEO of Ayvens, commenting on the Q3 2023 Group results, stated: “The integration of LeasePlan is progressing according to plan, with a number of key initiatives well underway and our first procurement objectives already reached. In parallel, we have taken two important steps towards becoming “one”. First, we presented our PowerUP 2026 strategic plan, whereby we draw on our industry leadership to shape the future of mobility and achieve excellence around our 4 priorities: clients, operational efficiency, responsibility and profitability. Second, we launched our global mobility brand ‘Ayvens’ which unites the two companies together under a single identity and highlights our new brand promise.

Against the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions and normalizing, yet still favourable used car markets, Ayvens achieved a solid commercial performance and mixed financial results, compared to a historically high 2022 base and confirmed its strong capital position and funding capabilities. I am confident that we will further demonstrate the relevance of our business model and create value in the months ahead by delivering on synergies, thanks to the commitment of our teams.”

FY 2023 guidance confirmed

In the current context of high interest rates and inflation, the demand for mobility services remains strong, confirming the relevance of Ayvens’ business model. While new car registrations continued to progress in Europe compared to last year, they remained significantly below pre-Covid levels, leading Ayvens to maintain its expectation that the used car market will continue to normalize gradually, while staying at a high level.

Ayvens expects for the full-year 2023:

Funded fleet growth between 2% and 4% vs. end December 202214 (unchanged);
Used Car Sales result per unit between EUR 1,200 and EUR 1,600 on average, including the negative impact of reduction in depreciation costs in previous quarters, on ALD’s sales of c. 290 thousand vehicles. No UCS result is assumed on LeasePlan’s Used car sales15. (unchanged);
Costs to achieve16 the integration and synergies at EUR 170 million (unchanged).

Ayvens expects to finalize the Purchase Price Allocation exercise by the end of 2023.

Good business growth marked by a strong increase in vehicle value

Commercial activity remained strong, with earning assets up by 14.1% year-on-year17 to EUR 50.2 billion as at 30 September 2023. Growth was primarily driven by inflation on car prices and the acceleration in EV penetration, which have a higher value.

Continuing the positive trends of the previous quarters, Ayvens’ total fleet stood at 3,394 thousand as at end September 2023, up by 3.8% compared to end September 2022, reflecting the dynamic demand for mobility services.

Full-service leasing contracts reached 2,691 thousand vehicles as at end September 2023, up 3.4% year-in-year. Thanks to increased registrations of new cars, the order book continued its slow normalization from the peak observed at the end of 2022, though remaining at a high level. Ayvens is on track to achieve its guidance of +2% to +4% funded fleet growth in 2023.

Fleet management contracts increased by +5.3% vs. September 2022, to reach 703 thousand vehicles.

Ayvens reinforced its leadership in sustainable mobility by continuing to promote electrification. EV penetration reached 34%18 of new passenger car registrations over 9M 2023, of which 37% in Q3 2023 alone. This outstanding performance compares very favourably to the European market at 22%19 in 9M 2023. Ayvens’ BEV20 and PHEV21 penetration stood at 21% and 13% respectively in 9M 2023, well ahead of the market.

Ayvens owns the largest multi-brand EV fleet in the world, at 505 thousand vehicles as at 30 September 2023. EVs now account for 19% of its funded fleet.

Q3 2023 financial results

The following comments apply to actual (reported) figures, where:

LeasePlan is consolidated from 22 May 2023. Consequently, Q3 2023 includes LeasePlan’s contribution for the full quarter, whereas 9M 2023 includes only slightly more than 4 months of LeasePlan contribution. The Q3 and 9M 2022 periods do not include any contribution from LeasePlan;
Pending the finalization of the Purchase Price Allocation exercise, expected by end 2023, no reduction in depreciation costs nor Used Car Sales result was recorded on LeasePlan’s fleet.

In a normalizing yet still favourable used car market, Ayvens recorded a mixed Q3 2023 financial performance against a high Q3 2022 base, which was driven by exceptionally high used car prices.

Taken together, Leasing contract and Services margins (Total margins) reached EUR 741.0 million in Q3 2023, an increase of 61.6% compared to Q3 2022. Out of this amount, the contribution of LeasePlan since the acquisition closing was EUR 283.5 million (EUR 349.7 million excluding non-operating items).

Leasing contract margin was boosted by the reduction in depreciation costs22 (EUR +110.4 million vs. EUR +67.2 million in Q3 2022). As a result of continued high estimated used car prices, depreciation has been adjusted or stopped for those vehicles whose sales proceeds are forecast to be in excess of their net book value until mid-2024. The reduction in depreciation costs equals the difference between the contractual amortization costs and the revised amortization cost. It anticipates in the Leasing contract margin part of Used car sales results which would otherwise be recorded later. No reduction in depreciation cost was assumed on LeasePlan’s fleet since it was acquired, due to the anticipation of fair value recognition in the context of the Purchase Price Allocation exercise.

Leasing contract margin was negatively impacted by the mark to market (MtM) of derivatives for EUR - 81.8 million23 in Q3 2023 at LeasePlan, mainly due to the decrease in GBP interest rates and to pull to par in a context of stable EUR interest rates between Q2 and Q3 2023. MtM of derivatives was EUR +3.5 million in Q3 2022. Ayvens holds a book of derivatives, initially from LeasePlan, whose purpose is to hedge the interest and foreign exchange rates exposure, when the profile of funding cannot be matched with that of the lease contract portfolio. While the Group is economically hedged, there can be accounting mismatches as operating leases do not qualify for hedge accounting under IFRS rules and hence are fair valued through income statement. MtM of derivatives results from interest rate movements (e.g. as net receiver of floating rate, positive MtM when interest rates rise) and reverses towards the derivative’s maturity (pull to par).

Other non-operating items impacting Leasing contract margin totalled EUR -56.5 million (vs. EUR +41.3 million in Q3 2022):

Fleet revaluation exercise of EUR +3.3 million vs. EUR +19.0 million in Q3 2022;
Hyperinflation in Turkey EUR +45.9 million vs. EUR +17.0 million in Q3 2022;
There was no adjustment to the provision in Ukraine in Q3 2023 (vs. a EUR +1.8 million provision reversal in Q3 2022).

The contribution from Used car sales (UCS) result, registered on ALD’s fleet only, remained at a high level in Q3 2023 at EUR 73.9 million, but was significantly lower than the high Q3 2022 level (EUR 191.0 million).The decrease is explained by: i) a negative impact of change in depreciation curve of EUR -93.9 million, as the positive impact of reduction in depreciation costs on Leasing contract margin in previous quarters anticipated some UCS profits and ii) a used car market which is normalizing, while staying at a high level. Conversely, contract extensions in a context of delays in car deliveries had a beneficial impact on UCS results.

There has been no profit recorded on LeasePlan’s Used car sales in Q3 nor 9M 2023 income statements, due to the upcoming fair value recognition under the PPA.

UCS result per unit24 on ALD’s sales came in at EUR 1,033 per unit in Q3 2023 vs. EUR 3,014 per unit in Q3 2022. Had ALD not recorded any reduction in depreciation costs to reflect exceptionally high used car prices in previous quarters, UCS result per unit would have stood at EUR 2,346 in Q3 2023 (EUR 3,607 in Q3 2022). In 9M 2023, UCS result per unit amounted to EUR 1,654 per unit (EUR 2,695 without the impact of reduction in depreciation cost) vs. EUR 3,149 in 9M 2022 (EUR 3,339 without the impact of reduction in depreciation cost).

Leveraging on its efficient remarketing platform, ALD sold 71.5 thousand units25 in Q3 2023 (not including 58k vehicles sold by LeasePlan in Q3 2023), up from 63.4 thousand in Q3 2022. The volume increase compared to the same period last year is mainly driven by improved dynamics in new car deliveries.

Consequently, Ayvens’ Gross Operating Income (GOI) reached EUR 814.9 million in Q3 2023, up 25.4% vs. Q3 2022.

Operating expenses amounted to EUR 448.7 million in Q3 2023, up from EUR 219.4 million in the same period last year, underpinned by:

Entry of LeasePlan in the consolidation scope on 22 May 2023 for EUR 230.5 million excluding costs to achieve (CTA);

CTA of EUR 40 million vs. EUR 42.6 million in Q3 2022 (EUR125.0 million in 9M 2023 vs. EUR 83.9 million in 9M 2022);

Recruitment to cover the integration period and;

Costs related to the regulated status of Ayvens.

As a result, the Cost/Income ratio (excl. UCS result) stood at 60.6% in Q3 2023 vs. 47.9% in Q3 2022 (54.1% in 9M 2023, vs. 49.0% in 9M 2022).

Impairment charges on receivables came in at EUR 21.8 million in Q3 2023, compared to EUR 13.5 million in Q3 2022. The cost of risk26 remained low at 18 bps compared to 23 bps in Q3 2022.

Income tax expense increased to EUR 120.3 million, up from EUR 98.3 million in Q3 2022. Effective tax rate increased to 35.0% (28.7% in 9M 2023) from 23.6% in Q3 2022, mainly the result of higher tax rate in Turkey applied to deferred tax liabilities, a one-off impact.

Result from discontinued operations amounted to EUR 14.0 million in Q3 2023 and is related to the sale of ALD’s entities in Portugal, Ireland and Norway on 1 August 2023. In 9M 2023, result from discontinued operations amounted to EUR -77.4 million, mainly driven by the EUR -91.3 million loss from the disposal of ALD Russia on 20 April 2023.

Ayvens’ net income (Group share) was EUR 226.2 million in Q3 2023, down 28.9% compared to Q3 2022 (EUR 318.0 million). In 9M 2023, the net income (Group share) came in at EUR 787.6, down by 15.4% from the historical high of EUR 930.7 million in 9M 2022.

Basic Earnings per share27 amounted to EUR 1.13 in 9M 2023 vs. EUR 2.1128 in 9M 2022, while diluted Earnings per share was EUR 1.11 vs. EUR 2.10 in 9M 2022. The computation is distorted by the fact that the rights issue which financed the cash component of the LeasePlan acquisition price was settled in December 2022, prior to the consolidation of LeasePlan from 22 May 2023.

Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) came in at 12.5% in Q3 2023 vs. exceptionally high 30.7% in Q3 2022 which was lifted by exceedingly favourable used car prices. ROTE was 16.7% in 9M 2023 vs. 31.3% in 9M 2022. These ratios are also distorted by the aforementioned timing difference.

Q3 2023 like-for-like performance

For illustration purposes, management information is provided in appendix to assess the like-for-like performance of Ayvens:

Q3 and 9M 2023 with LeasePlan included over the full period (whereas LeasePlan was consolidated from 22 May 2023 only), including LeasePlan’s reduction in depreciation costs in Leasing contract margin (whereas it is stripped out in the reported Q3 and 9M 2023 income statements, pending the finalization of the Purchase Price Allocation exercise);

Q3 and 9M 2022 with LeasePlan included over the full period (whereas LeasePlan was consolidated from 22 May 2023 only and hence not consolidated in the reported Q3 and 9M 2022 figures).

This like-for-like information excludes: i) ALD’s subsidiaries in Russia, Belarus, Portugal, Ireland, Norway (except NF Fleet), LeasePlan’s subsidiaries in the USA, Czech Republic, Finland and Luxembourg and ii) any PPA-related adjustment (e.g. intangible assets relating to customer relationships) and should not be considered as representative of the results which the combined Group would have achieved, nor of future results. Actual results may differ significantly from those reflected in this illustrative information for several reasons, including, but not limited to, differences in actual conditions compared to the assumptions used to prepare this illustrative information.

Total margins (Leasing contract margin and services margin) excl. reduction in depreciation costs and non-operating items would have been EUR 687.1 million in Q3 2023, stable on a like-for-like basis vs. Q3 2022 (EUR 691.4 million).

Pressure on margins expressed as a %29 was observed in Q3 2023, due to: i) the impact of inflation on Services margin, as inflation could not be fully transferred to customers and; ii) contract extensions in a context of delayed car deliveries. The negative impact on margins is expected to reverse as: i) new car deliveries will normalize, hence a lower impact from inflation and; ii) Ayvens is restricting contract extensions.

Used car sales profit before the impact of reduction in depreciation costs in previous quarters would have been down by 17.3% from Q3 2022, at EUR 324.1 million.

Gross operating income excluding non-recuring items and the impact on Used car sales result of reduction in depreciation costs booked in previous quarters would have been down by 6.7% vs Q3 2022, at EUR 1,011.2 million.

Operating expenses excl. non-recurring items would have amounted to EUR 419.8 million in Q3 2023 and would have increased by 6.5% vs. Q3 2022 on a like-for-like basis, under the effect of recruitments to cover the transition phase.

The Cost/Income ratio would have reached 61.1% in Q3 2023, vs. 57.0% in Q3 2022, excl. UCS result, reduction in depreciation costs and non-operating items.

Balance sheet and regulatory capital

Total balance sheet30 decreased from EUR 68.3 billion as at 30 June 2023 to EUR 67.5 billion as at 30 September 2023, mainly due to the disposal of entities previously classified as held for sale.

Earning assets continued to grow strongly, reaching EUR 50.2 billion as at 30 September 2023, vs. EUR 48.6bn as at 30 June 2023, underpinned by the acceleration in Q3 2023 of the penetration of EVs which have a higher value.

Ayvens’ risk-weighted assets (RWA) totalled EUR 56.0 billion as at 30 September 2023 under CRR2/CRD5 rules, with credit risk-weighted assets accounting for 86% of the total. The increase compared to 30 June 2023 is mainly explained by the flooring to standard of some LeasePlan exposures (EUR +4.2 billion) and organic growth (earning assets growth and reduction in order book: EUR +0.5 billion), partially compensated by a number of optimization initiatives (EUR -1.3 billion in total) and the disposal of remedies entities (EUR -1.2 billion).

Ayvens had a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.3% and Total Capital ratio of 16.3% as at 30 September 2023 (vs. 12.5% and 16.6% respectively as at 30 June 2023).

Financial debt31 stood at EUR 34.9 billion at the end of September 2023, not including EUR 2.0 billion bonds issued end of September 2023 which settled on 6 October 2023, while deposits reached EUR 11.5 billion (vs. EUR 35.6 billion and EUR 11.4 billion respectively at the end of June 2023).

As part of its active liquidity management strategy, Ayvens continued to diversify its funding by issuing a total EUR 2.0 billion senior preferred bonds in September, its largest issuance ever. The funding raised, EUR 1.0 billion 2-year tranche and EUR 1.0 billion 5-year tranche, brings bonds issued to-date to total EUR 3.85 billion, and confirms the market’s strong appetite for Ayvens debt instruments despite challenging market conditions.

The combined entity has access to ample short-term liquidity, with cash holdings at Central bank reaching EUR 4.0 billion and an undrawn committed Revolving Credit Facility of EUR 1.375 billion in place.

Conference call for investors and analysts

Date: 3 November, at 10.00 am Paris time –9.00 am London time

Speakers: Tim Albertsen, CEO and Patrick Sommelet, Deputy CEO and CFO

Connection details:

Webcast: Click
Conference call:
FR: [phone]
UK: [phone]
US: [phone]
Access code: 457698

Agenda

8 February 2024: Q4 and FY 2023 results

3 May 2024: Q1 2024 results

About Ayvens

Press Contact
Stephanie Jonville
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: [phone]
[e-mail]


Ayvens is the leading global sustainable mobility player committed to making life flow better. We’ve been improving mobility for decades, providing full-service leasing, flexible subscription services, fleet management and multi-mobility solutions to large international corporates, SMEs, professionals and private individuals.

With 15,700 employees across 44 countries, 3.4 million
vehicles and the world’s largest multi-brand EV fleet,
we’re leveraging our unique position to lead the way to net zero and spearhead the digital transformation of the mobility sector. (The company is listed on Compartment A of Euronext Paris (ISIN: FR0013258662; Ticker: ALD). Societe Generale Group is Ayvens’ majority shareholder.

Find out more at ayvens.com

The information contained in this document (the “Information”) has been prepared by ALD (the “Company”) solely for informational purposes. The Information is proprietary to the Company. This presentation and its content may not be reproduced or distributed or published, directly or indirectly, in whole or in part, to any other person for any purpose without the prior written permission of the Company.

“Ayvens” refers to the Company and its consolidated entities.

The financial information presented for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2023 was reviewed by the Board of Directors on 2 November 2023 and has been prepared in accordance with IFRS as adopted in the European Union and applicable at this date.

[the grumpy old men] 04/11/2023 04:35

Tangible book value per share

in EUR million 30 September 2023 30 June 2023

Group shareholders' equity 10,841 10,585

Book value of treasury shares 18 18

Net Asset Value (NAV) 10,091 9,853

Goodwill (2,392) (2,363)

Intangible assets (598) (562)

Net Tangible Asset Value (NTAV) 7,100 6,928

Number of shares (1) 815,699,794 815,705,590

NAV per share 12.37 12.08

NTAV per share 8.70 8.49

[gibbs1] 03/11/2023 17:08

Euronext Paris 17:37:35 03/11/2023

ALD


6,340 EUR -3,13%