Agriterra Ld Share Discussion Threads

[swooped] 23/9/2013 11:15

looking pretty exciting stock being taken out as fast as being available, must calm myself now and back to the research, pretty sure the price will look after itself now

[the count of monte_cristo] 23/9/2013 11:08

someone is happy to pay 2.75p for 300k of shares. Nice.

Still way oversold. I am looking forwards to the next update on the beef business.

[swooped] 23/9/2013 11:08

going ballistic now just gone into auction at 2.75!

[swooped] 23/9/2013 11:04

2.62 is first resistance, lets see if we can break it!

[swooped] 23/9/2013 11:00

Nice timing multi, just moved up to 2.6 on the bid with the spread closing, mm's wanting stock, I like it when they are the needy ones!

[multibagger] 23/9/2013 10:41

I picked up a shade under 300k....not showing as yet.

[the count of monte_cristo] 23/9/2013 10:35

Can someone help explain the larget AT trades today at 2.5p? Are they buys or rollovers?

[multibagger] 23/9/2013 10:02

Have put in a small buy order...start of stake building.

[the count of monte_cristo] 23/9/2013 09:23

Good point Steve and AOL continues to go up. Personally I have no idea whether AGTA will sell its holding.

[cyprussteve] 22/9/2013 20:33

AOL - share price has doubled since launch -
Key Shareholders as at 25/06/2013 which hold more than 3% in the Company:

Agriterra Limited 8,337,682 3.74%
One wonders whether the Company intends to continue holding this as a strategic asset, or to cash in.
Either way it must be good for the AGTA share price
Any views ?
Steve

[the count of monte_cristo] 21/9/2013 19:00

Good luck Multi, I plan on being here a while so glad to have you sharing your research with us. All the best.

[multibagger] 21/9/2013 18:52

Hi Count, I am looking at buying AGTA. I believe in the African agribusiness prospects over the coming decades and hence built a small stake in both ZAM and OBT. Thanks for sharing your painstaking research. Good luck :)

[the count of monte_cristo] 21/9/2013 18:44

Multi - agreed about the cocoa business, but remember the trading business could grow exponentially from now, especially once they get the warehouse sorted.

In regards our plantation yes it will take years to develop, so a longer term business than the beef. However as I say above the trading business could rapidily expand whilst we wait for our own cocoa beans to come in from our plantations.

I would like to see Sierra Leone become one of the top 10 cocoa producing countries in the world with AGTA being the largest trader and produce of cocoa in Sierra Leone within the next 5 years. Currently we are number 15.





Also note that this is precisely why the price of cocoa 'could' spike much higher over the rest of this decade because a) it takes 4-5 years for a tree to begin producing b) the trees can only be grown in specific regions around the world c) any bad weather or disease hitting Ivory Coast or Ghana could cause big supply issues and d) If consumption continues increasing it will out match the supply, at which point the law of supply and demand comes in and prices will go higher.

Would you like a candy bar mr 1.2 billion Indian person? Or how about you China, are your middle class getting a sweeter tooth and consuming more candies? There are only 1.35 billion of you so hopefully you won't otherwise the price of our chocolate in Europe is going to go up this decade.

For me, holding AGTA is better than buying a house or investing in a pension, AGTA is my pension so happy to wait to see all of this come to fruition.

Africa is the place to be this decade and next and so is Agriculture, IMHO.

P.S. Thank you for your nice words Steve.

[multibagger] 21/9/2013 18:00

Ideawatch/Vision Statement in Harvard Business Review,Oct 2013, Page 35

Seven reasons why Africa's time is now...Jonathan Berman (author of Success in Africa: CEO Insights from a Continent on the Rise)

1. It's a huge market opportunity
52 cities with more than 1 million population
Urban population will reach 50% by 2030
African middleclass bigger than India's
By 2020, half of african households will have discretionary spending power

2. It's increasingly stable
Debt and inflation have decreased significantly
Number of political coups have precipitously declined since 1990
Political reform underway (Polity IV index as a measure)

3. It will soon have the world's largest workforce
African workforce will swell by 163m this decade
By 2050, will account for over 25% of world's workers

4. Mobile is exploding
Mobile penetration which is 78% today will reach 84% by 2015
Mobile internet traffic will grow 25 fold in next four years
Smartphones are only 3% of the African market today and will be just 15%
in 2015

5. Intra-African trade is its infancy
Only 11% of Africa's trade takes place within its own borders
New crop of Pan African companies and leaders are changing that equation

6. Twenty percent of government spending goes on education
Nearly twice what the OECD spend on (11%)
Primary school enrollment reached 76% in 2008, up 14 points in a decade
Secondary school enrollment reached 35%, grew by 10 points
Education is a crucial factor whether the rapidly expanding workforce is a boon or a bane

7. It contains most of the world's uncultivated arable land
590m hectares in Sub Saharan Africa
300m hectares in Latin America

[cyprussteve] 21/9/2013 17:50

Hi Count,
Your detailed and extensive research is greatly appreciated - not only by me, but, I am sure by many others.
I have often found your posts to be thought provoking, and they have regularly added to my own knowledge.
THANKS :)
Steve

[multibagger] 21/9/2013 15:05

The lead times for cacao bean production is about 5 years...so the returns from investment now will take time, but will pay off in the longer term.

Interesting information on cacao.....

The Cacao Tree's botanical name is Theobroma Cacao, which means "food of the gods" in Greek.
Cocoa producing regions are all located within 20 degrees of the equator, as the trees require good soil drainage, a humid climate, and regular rainfall.
Countries in Western Africa, such as Ivory Coast and Ghana, provide the substantial majority of cocoa production for the world market (70%+).
The amount of time it takes for a tree to produce its first fruit is approximately five years.
The peak growing period for the average cocoa tree is about 10 years but can extend for several decades.
The pollination process of the flowers of the cacao tree is done by flies, not bees.
It is the seeds of resulting fruit (the fruit is also known as "pods") that are used in making chocolate.
The typical pod contains a few dozen seeds, also known as beans.
Cocoa solids and cocoa butter are the two main components from the beans that go into making the chocolate we enjoy today.
It takes several hundred processed beans to make up 1 pound of chocolate.

Given its limited growing region, long lead times, and the increasing demand for chocolate on the world market, each and every cacao tree is critical to our continued enjoyment of this amazing and healthy product.

Information compiled from various sources, including the World Cocoa Foundation, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the International Cocoa Organization.

[freddie01] 21/9/2013 14:35

Good post Count. Thank you.

[the count of monte_cristo] 21/9/2013 12:31

Agriterra flags boost from buoyant cocoa market

Agriterra highlighted the boost to its prospects from high cocoa prices, which set a one-month high, as it unveiled "rapid development" in the crop, including a distribution deal with commodities giant Noble Group.

The Africa-bsaed group, better known as a beef producer and corn processor, said that it doubled to 3,200 hectares its area of cocoa plantations in Sierra Leone, and was in talks to buy a further 1,550 hectares at a neighbouring site.

Besides cultivating 250,000 seedlings for a cultivation programme, Agriterra said that it had built two new cocoa stores, with a 2,000-square-meter warehouse and a processing facility to come onstream in November.

Furthermore, the group, seeking certification by the Rainforest Alliance as an ethical producer, revealed a supply deal with Noble Group, the Singpore-based coal-to-cotton commodities house, and one of the "Now" group, with Olam International and Wilmar International, of leading Asian ag traders.

'Cocoa shortages expanding'

Agriterra's tie-up with Noble, and other unnamed cocoa traders, "will give us a competitive advantage as we begin to produce cocoa from our own plantation", Andrew Groves, the Agriterra chief executive, said.

He also flagged the boost to the group from the dynamics of a market in which "cocoa shortages are expanding as chocolate sales climb to record highs.

"With this backdrop of a favourable pricing environment for cocoa, and a proven track record to deliver, I believe we are well positioned to increase revenue generation and margins over the coming years," Mr Groves said.

'Plagued with dry weather'

Cocoa futures for December hit a one-year high of $2,657 a tonne in New York on Thursday, boosted by continued talk of world production shortfalls prompted by buoyant demand at a time of weather and disease setbacks in the top West African producing countries.

"We remain bullish on cocoa due to demand and supply factors such as the unfavourable weather outlook for West Africa's cocoa crop and growing demand for cocoa supplies," Joyce Liu at Singapore-based broker Phillip Futures said.

"West Africa had been plagued with dry weather which could adversely affect the supply of cocoa."

[tenapen] 20/9/2013 18:27

Another good update from Agta, But IMO they need to follow ZAM lead and go down the Chicken Route, see below. Just to say that Zambeef as been growing for 20yrs to get to where it is today and it will take time and money for agta to grow.




hxxp://ukzambians.co.uk/home/2013/09/19/zambeef-to-set-up-us250-million-hatchery-in-mpongwe/

Zambeef to set up US$250 million hatchery in Mpongwe

Cont...

The Mpongwe project will also include a processing plant for feedstock, feeding mills, workers' houses and office blocks.
"The overall company objective is to continue with diversification distribution and sale of poultry products," stated the EIA. Post Zambia

[old tyke] 20/9/2013 17:13

Very squeezy close today, couldn't see too many buy trades going through....

[the count of monte_cristo] 20/9/2013 13:12

From reading the MC Peat Oct report they did discuss 30,000 head of beef as a longer term goal. I hope that they do continue to expand the head of herd.

MC Peat mentioned for the slaughter house to be maximised with the AGTA head the herd size would need to grow. So I think the targets past 2015 will be to keep growing and expanding the business. Also why would they get their facility halal certified if they are not intending to eventually start exporting there beef to the Arab states where they would get much better prices than selling it all locally.

The beef business could be a considerable cash cow, pardon the pun, long term.

It will help that the corn, cocoa and beef prices are all doing well. With the cocoa business having the 2000m2 facility operational in a few months time is going to help, exciting times ahead.

[jimmy12345] 20/9/2013 12:14

The cocoa operation will take about the same time as the beef operation and probably as much money to get to a ongoing profitable enterprise. So i think perhaps 4 years in total. And £10 million spend.( im speculating here) Im hoping these costs can be met frim profits in the maize buying buisness ( i believe this is now ongoing profitable with infastructure spend complete) and the beef buisness which cant be far off being profitable and infastructure spend very much declining as the mlajor projects of slaughterhouse, dam, roads, cattle buy in, land aquisitions and iprovements are completed for the operational size of 10,000 head. Unless of course there is plans to continue increasing and expanding the beef operation. Cocoa plants take 2 years for first production and optimum production achieved after about 5 years. Its a long term commitment. so im thinking, and speculating that we are about 2 years from group profits and perhaps a divi. When they come there going to be big as the company has invested fast and big, and the moment they stop the profits will be huge. This is the kind of buisness where you make nothing for 10 years then you reap mega prifits from then on. Very large upfront costs. Glad to say qe seem to be 3/4 of the way to profits.

[the count of monte_cristo] 20/9/2013 11:57

Hopefully, and the share below 3p will be a distant dream whereby investors look back and ask, if I would have bought this share back then! Time will tell.

ZAM went from nothing to a company capped in the 100s of millions no reason why other Agri focused companies operating in Africa cannot also do it.

[oiht] 20/9/2013 11:37

Nice to see things perking up here :) ...in the years to come this will be a solid dividend cash cow. IMHO