Afh Financial Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 14:13

It's all in the interpretation :o))

Liberum use their own calculation of fully diluted EPS, which they say for last year was 29.1p EPS compared to the underlying 32.8p EPS. The above forecasts are in fully diluted terms.

So the core adjusted EPS forecasts are probably around 35p-36p EPS for this year and 40p EPS for next year (though Liberum don't show these in their note).

[dexdringle] 20/1/2020 13:47

….if the EPS was 32.8p for 2019 (up 45% on 2018) it seems highly unlikely that it will be 32.7p (ie lower) for 2020 ????

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 13:34

It's also worth putting Liberum's latest forecasts on the thread:

to 31/10/20 : 32.7p EPS, 10p dividend
to 31/10/21 : 36.8p EPS, 11p dividend
to 31/10/22 : 40.5p EPS, 13p dividend

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 10:56

A couple of extracts from Liberum's update this morning:

"In FY19 AFH delivered 8% organic net flows and revenues are up 47% yoy. The revenue model change in Protection responds to investor concerns and leads to significantly increased cash conversion. In addition, the FY results also show operational improvements are being delivered as acquisitions are integrated. The share price has recovered in recent months but we believe AFH continues to offer significant value.

Improved outlook for the sector has helped a sector re-rating and we increase our TP to 569p from 484p, implying 48% upside. BUY."

"3-5 year targets on track

The 3-5 year targets of £10bn FUM, £140m of revenue and an underlying EBITDA margin of 25%, announced in Jan 2019, have been reaffirmed and we believe these are on track to be met in 5 years.

Remains undervalued

Despite the share price recovery in recent months we believe AFH will continue to re-rate as it focusses on improving FCF. Our TP increases by 18%, driven by the sector re-rating reflecting an improved outlook."

[quepassa] 20/1/2020 09:18

And City AM.....

hXXps://www.cityam.com/afh-financial-reports-jump-in-revenue-and-funds-under-management/

good to see AFH getting some well-deserved and increasing coverage in the financial press after such stellar results.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[davebowler] 20/1/2020 09:02

hTTps://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/advice-giant-afh-posts-82-profit-hike-and-focuses-on-organic-growth/a1314676?re=71247&ea=252901&utm_source=BulkEmail_NMA_Daily_EAM&utm_medium=BulkEmail_NMA_Daily_EAM&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_NMA_Daily_EAM

[typo56] 20/1/2020 08:37

Sorry, I was being a plonker. Mixed up with another RNS this morning!

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 08:34

Liberum have increased their PBT forecast for this year slightly to £19.4m (from £19.3m).

And as QuePassa says, their target price has increased to 569p (from 484p).

Looks like some profit-taking going on from those who ran the price up prior to the results. Once these are out there should be some very good upside here imho.

[wjccghcc] 20/1/2020 08:30

Cashflow not brilliant with net debt including deferred consideration rising from 33mm at H1 to 43mm despite pausing acquisitions.

Also, they don't mention the DB pension transfer review which is likely to impact most IFAs.

A bit too much uncertainty for me despite the cheap PE.

[typo56] 20/1/2020 08:22

Deleted. Posted on wrong thread. My mistake.

[quepassa] 20/1/2020 08:19

Significant Target Price INCREASE by LIBERUM just out on back of today's excellent results.

Liberum REITERATE BUY


and have INCREASED the TP from 484p to 569p

Liberum see c. 43% UPSIDE to current share price

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[saucepan] 20/1/2020 07:26

Yes, super numbers and outlook, Rivaldo.

ShareScope had tomorrow as a confirmed day results, so a doubly pleasant surprise to find them today.

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 07:18

Excellent results - 32.8p EPS (and 30.4p EPS fully diluted) is nicely ahead of expectations.

It's up 45% on last year, with a 33% rise in the 8p dividend.

The ambition is to double revenues and EBITDA in the next 3 years.

Recurring income is up to £46m out of the £74m total revenues, i.e almost two-thirds.

Despite all this the current year P/E is only 11 or 12.

Plus the outlook is very strong:

"Trading remains strong and in line with the Board's expectations and the current levels of activity underpins the Directors' confidence for the continued progress of the Group in the current year and thereafter in line with its aspirational targets."

[nw99] 20/1/2020 07:09

Nice update continues to do well

[saucepan] 16/1/2020 10:11

Yes, very pleasing momentum.

Results on 21 January. Perhaps traders taking positions? They may, of course, soon be the "sell on news" brigade.

[rivaldo] 16/1/2020 10:04

Passing the June'19 high now. Hopefully back through 400p soon.

[rivaldo] 15/1/2020 14:37

Encouraging just now to see a £20,000 buy at 374p against the 372p published offer price.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2020 11:37

Nice - more new recent highs now.

[quepassa] 10/1/2020 08:36

Market rumours about potential M&A at wealth manager Quilter:

hXXps://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7851859/STOCK-MARKET-WATCHLIST-Quilter-lining-merger-life-insurance-sell-off.html

I am not suggesting that AFHP is in their cross-hairs but further sector feedback about consolidation amongst wealth managers.

Wealth management Sector is hot for 2020.

The vastly stabilised UK political backdrop with a supportive and strong Conservative government will further significantly bolster the sector.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[davebowler] 09/1/2020 16:41

Liberum are hosting a group lunch at 12.30pm on Tuesday 28th January re. AFH.

[saucepan] 09/1/2020 14:25

Sorry, should have been 2020 of course. Post edited, thanks.

[dexdringle] 09/1/2020 14:23

"Saucepan 9 Jan '20 - 14:12 - 458 of 458

AFHP being discussed on 2010, ZULU thread, if of any interest"

Great. I'll get a time machine and go back 10 years then...…..

[saucepan] 09/1/2020 14:12

AFHP being discussed on 2020, ZULU thread, if of any interest.

[leona306a] 09/1/2020 12:09

Final results due in the next two weeks.Finals 2018....29th JanFinals2019.....21st JanHang on to your hats.Good hunting

[jrr1] 09/1/2020 11:58

yes good volumes and nice tick up