Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Afh Financial Group Plc LSE:AFHP London Ordinary Share GB00B4W5WQ08 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  5.00 1.52% 335.00 500 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
330.00 340.00 335.00 335.00 335.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 74.34 13.71 25.40 13.2 144
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:48:16 O 500 331.50 GBX

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05/10/202015:32AFH Financial with charts595
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Afh Financial Daily Update: Afh Financial Group Plc is listed in the General Financial sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AFHP. The last closing price for Afh Financial was 330p.
Afh Financial Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 311p and a 12 week average price of 295p.
The 1 year high share price is 428p while the 1 year low share price is currently 190p.
There are currently 42,983,638 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 37,853 shares. The market capitalisation of Afh Financial Group Plc is £143,995,187.30.
quepassa: UK household saving has gone through the roof since March and now NS&I are dropping interest rates on their Income Bonds from 1.15% to effectively zero (0.01%) in late November. Building societies will follow their lead and also savage interest rates on deposits. I just have to believe that the mass affluent and mid-market well-off will increasingly need the services of wealth managers to cope with increased savings at a time of near zero cash returns. If AFHP now prioritise their digital marketing focus as detailed in their recent Trading Update, they should be very well-placed to capture market-share in a ballooning and febrile market in need of wealth management services. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa: Strong figures today and buoyant outlook from stockbroker/wealth manager Hargreaves Lansdown. Positive cross-sector feedback. All points to individuals saving more and investing more at a time when interest rates are de minimis and when many individuals have had more time to address their personal financial planning and affairs. Bodes well for the sector. Bodes well for AFHP. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
dexdringle: Yes that statement re 'significant' recurring income reduction and new business possibly ceasing all together in the new tax year is unbelievably negative. There is honesty and there is suicide. Makes him look like he's been completely wrong footed, had no contingency, and is throwing in the towel already. The share price has held up well considering. I wonder how Liberum are feeling about their £5.69 price target ? And where is QP. He normally has a view on all things AFH ? Mainly how he hates SJP and thinks AFH are the next big thing....
rivaldo: Everyone in the sector (in fact most sectors!) are in the same boat - it's hardly the first sign of trouble! It's all very well saying they'll be off, but where will they go? Other firms will be in the same postion - and will likely be less successful than AFHP. Especially considering its excellent track record, including as regards integration of acquisitions in general. And it's already been established that AFHP are a much safer option than others in the sector, given the higher proportion of AFHP's revenues arising from initial advice fees and Protection Broking, which are unrelated to market movements.
quepassa: Indeed. Fully concur.... Amidst the corona crisis, chaos and mayhem, AFHP's words and statement at the recent 6/3 AGM are perhaps neither be forgotten, nor underestimated :- "Following a period of consolidation and whilst continuing to focus on cash generation and the organic growth of the business, the Group remains open to executing further acquisitions should suitable opportunities present themselves, with a focus on smaller IFAs and larger businesses where the majority of advisers are employed or equity participants in the target company." "AND LARGER BUSINESSES" the current market sell-off may present certain compelling opportunities to AFHP sooner rather than later. and AFHP continue:- "The success of 2019 has continued into the first four months of this financial year with revenues and fund inflows recorded at Q4 2019 levels. We expect the growing requirement for professional financial planning to accelerate in the future and for the consolidation within the sector to continue as commercial factors and regulatory requirements encourage a smaller number of larger businesses to dominate the sector." " A SMALLER NUMBER OF LARGER BUSINESSES TO DOMINATE THE SECTOR". It is quite clear which category ambitious AFHP want to be in. Bottom-fishing yesterday has already yielded some spectacular returns amidst the market chaos hitherto driven by fear and shorters. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
rivaldo: Liberum have reiterated their 569p target price. And they state that AFHP are the least affected by falls in equity markets of any of the stocks in their asset-linked coverage. This is because of the higher proportion of revenues in AFHP arising from initial advice fees and Protection Broking, which are unrelated to market movements. They note that a 10% fall in equities would only results in a 5% fall in AFHP's EPS. So at present the impact to AFHP should be only a maximum 10% - and that's only if the fall remains in place for a full year. This year's EPS 33p EPS forecast to 31st October should therefore fall only to 31p EPS or so - if the current decline continues for the rest of the period. The forecast for the year starting this November remains at 37.1p EPS. And AFHP are still trading at a huge discount to other listed financial advisers - they trade at an average P/E of 17.2 compared to AFHP's 9.9 (and wealth managers trade on a P/E of 12.6).
quepassa: Dex, It would appear, au contraire, that the AFH model works very well indeed - and this is perhaps why St. Jimmy's may or may not be starting to emulate AFHP's approach and considering MAKING AN ACQUISITION according to attached article. The following fascinating and detailed article in MoneyMarketing gives details. - Money Marketing contacted St. Jimmy's about it and "SJP declined to comment". hXXps:// You will also note that the article gives a link to another article on St. James headed "SJP acquisition in Ireland falls through". More than one target. It would appear that your assertion that : "SJP grows organically with advisers bringing their own clients to SJP - rather than SJP buying/owning those clients. ..." is not the whole story and that SJP is itself perhaps an evolving story with an evolving strategy. It may also be that St. Jimmy's recognises the growing competition from the new breed of wealth-manager where AFHP is at the forefont. The 5yr share price comparison between St. James and AFH tells the story. The SJP share price has risen from 900p to 1200p , being +33%. Whereas AFHP has gone from 150p to 420p, being + 180%. It appears to me that the historic business model of St. Jimmy's is out-dated and that it is AFHP with a new approach to wealth management which is leading the way and experiencing dramatic growth as a result. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
rivaldo: Good coverage on Citywire of Liberum's Buy note and increased 569p target: Https:// "AFH Financial offers more upside, says Liberum. AIM-listed national advice group AFH Financial (AFHP) is still offering ‘significant value’ despite share price gains in recent months, says Liberum. Analyst Jamie Donald retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 484p to 569p after the company reported 8% organic net flows and revenue increases of 47% in 2019. The shares rose 1.3% to 390p yesterday. ‘The full-year results show operational improvements are being delivered as acquisitions are integrated,’ he said. ‘The share price has recovered in recent months but we believe AFH continues to offer significant value. Improved outlook for the sector has helped a sector re-rating and we increase our target price…implying 48% upside.’"
rivaldo: A couple of extracts from Liberum's update this morning: "In FY19 AFH delivered 8% organic net flows and revenues are up 47% yoy. The revenue model change in Protection responds to investor concerns and leads to significantly increased cash conversion. In addition, the FY results also show operational improvements are being delivered as acquisitions are integrated. The share price has recovered in recent months but we believe AFH continues to offer significant value. Improved outlook for the sector has helped a sector re-rating and we increase our TP to 569p from 484p, implying 48% upside. BUY." "3-5 year targets on track The 3-5 year targets of £10bn FUM, £140m of revenue and an underlying EBITDA margin of 25%, announced in Jan 2019, have been reaffirmed and we believe these are on track to be met in 5 years. Remains undervalued Despite the share price recovery in recent months we believe AFH will continue to re-rate as it focusses on improving FCF. Our TP increases by 18%, driven by the sector re-rating reflecting an improved outlook."
glasshalfull: Good morning folks, I’m currently writing up the constituents of my (fantasy football) portfolio & now getting round to “The Consolidator”...AFHP. The table below doesn’t copy over v well from Twitter so here is a direct link for anyone interested. HTTPS:// (#5) AFHP (AFH Financial) – The Consolidator * Share Price 315p * M/Cap £134.2m * Enterprise Value £115.9m * Shares in Issue 42.6m * Stock Rank 35 (Quality 53 / Value 35 / Momentum 41)   Background AFH Financial Group provide independent financial advice & wealth management services to over 20,000 clients across the UK. They currently have over £5bn of Funds Under Management (FUM) & are effectively a smaller version of St James’s Place (STJ) a £6bn m/cap. Due to increased regulation, the sector has observed considerable consolidation in recent years with AFHP one of the most active consolidators, greedily buying businesses up at a valuation that works out at 4 x post-completion EBITDA & therefore each acquisition is IMMEDIATELY earnings enhancing from Day 1. They made 16 x acquisitions in 2018 & 4 x in 2019 so far. They always acquire on an earn-out model with 50% up-front & 50% via deferred consideration based on increased targets. The deferred pay-out ratio is very high at 90% (or an overall 95% of total consideration) which highlights successful integration & forms a great reference point for potential vendors. Alongside this acquisitive growth they augmented this through the delivery of 13.6% organic growth in FY18. Margins, Profitability & Earnings up significantly The beauty of this buy-build model is the synergistic benefits of shared central costs & thus the cost base of AFHP is rising at a far slower pace which is reflected in the fantastic op. profit margin improvement that has become evident in recent years: - • 2015 – 8% • 2016 – 9% • 2017 – 11% • 2018 – 16% • 2019e – 18% The undernoted table highlights their enviable financial performance & current forecasts DO NOT factor in any further acquisitions, which we can expect with a degree of certainty as The Consolidator of 20 x acquisitions completed in the last 15 months & with over 1,400 IFA businesses in the sector there’s plenty to go for. We know any acquisition will be earnings enhancing from the off. Yr end Oct Revenue PBT Dil EPS 2015 £21m £1.6m 5.5p 2016 £24.1m £2.0m (+25%) 6.6p (+20%) 2017 £33.6m £3.5m (+75%) 10.3p (+56%) 2018 £50.7m £7.8m (+123%) 14.6p (+42%) 2019e £81.5m £14.3m (+83%) 24.7p (+69%) 2020e £89.0m £16.3m (+14%) 28.0p (+13%)   Worthwhile commenting on the share price which fell considerably in Q4 2018 in line with the general market turbulence at the time…but has failed to recover in line with peers & the market. The CEO noted that their Protection Business (£10m revs) is not correlated to the market & grew organically by +30% in FY18 while the investment management side is impacted slightly on the basis that if the FTSE All Share falls by 1%, there is a 0.4% impact on FUM. The share price peaked at 415p in mid-Sept 2018 & has lost (-100p) or (-24%) in the last 6 months despite forecasts being upgraded following positive FY18 results with a confident outlook & also an UPGRADE on their 3-5yr timeframe KPI’s issued in 2017 targeting £5bn FUM / Rev £75m / EBITDA margin 20% due to the fact they achieved 2 out of 3 KPI’s after ONLY 2yrs with the revenue target set to be achieved in FY19. So, the new 3-5yr KPI’s are targeting £10bn FUM / Rev £140m / EBITDA margin 25% which is further reflection on their confidence following a positive start to FY19. In conclusion, AFHP’s earnings growth has been meteoric for the last 3yrs & they are on course to deliver +69% EPS growth in the current year through double digit organic growth & also acquisition. I have used the Diluted EPS rather than Adjusted EPS in my calculations but even on the lower metric they are on a PER 12.5 & shares look fantastic value & a great risk/ reward investment at the current share price IMHO. Also worth pointing out that they’ve ramped up the dividend annually by 30-50% in recent years from a low base, with div yield of 2.8% now approaching a meaningful return.   Kind regards, GHF
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