Afh Financial Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 15/11/2019 10:16

Lovely move up - overhang cleared after those huge volumes perhaps.

At Mello this week I saw a presentation by SimplyBiz, and as part of a discussion on the changing nature of their sector, which is rapidly consolidating, their CEO specifically mentioned AFHP as a very well-run company carrying out a particularly effective strategy.

Which was encouraging to hear!

[ronwilkes123] 14/11/2019 17:51

Biggest volume today since listing with the later trades

[ronwilkes123] 14/11/2019 17:04

Maybe two dex the seller and the buyer

[dexdringle] 14/11/2019 16:39

Re the large trade, perhaps the CEO read my note above and started buying :¬)

2.2M shares is around 5% of the total shares in issue. You'd think such a trade would have a massive effect. That it hasn't seems to suggest that it is likely to be institutional shuffling between one another with no net effect.

Should create need for an RNS though ?

[ronwilkes123] 14/11/2019 15:54

Online buy limits nowCan only buy 3k at 2.88pCouple of buys it will move

[eentweedrie] 14/11/2019 15:48

yeah pretty large - odd that we are down, those were def buys

[johnv] 14/11/2019 15:21

A large 2.2m trade just now

[ronwilkes123] 14/11/2019 14:09

Potentially dex dumping liberum may be the answer in the short termThe big cut to the target price cast an unnecessary cloud over very positive results. One would have thought the change to the protected income model didn't just happen on Monday. The previous target price may have been very blue sky.

[dexdringle] 14/11/2019 12:58

Financial Adviser Magazine "The chief executive of AFH Financial Group has said he is frustrated the valuation of the company has dropped despite growing revenues and shareholder returns".

You could read this as "The chief executive of AFH Financial Group knows that the companies shares are way undervalued so it is a bit odd that he and his fellow directors and his friends and family are not buying shed loads at this bargain price while they still can (or at least will do so once any closed period ends)"

You'd think he would be jumping up and down with excitement at the prospect of effectively buying £1 coins for 60p each....

[rivaldo] 12/11/2019 22:51

Great to see a new holder turning up with 1.6m shares - the Fund Manager of Gran Fondo Capital:



To clarify, Liberum's new forecasts are:

year to 31/10/20: 32.7p EPS, 10p dividend
year to 31/10/21: 36.6p EPS, 11p dividend

[ronwilkes123] 12/11/2019 18:28

New holdings RNSNew ii holder

[ronwilkes123] 12/11/2019 13:04

Ah that's why liberum knocked the target share price thenReduced eps - thanks for that Chris

[shauney2] 12/11/2019 09:12

From Citywire

AFH growth belies historically low rating, says Liberum

AIM-listed national advice firm AFH Financial (AFHP) is growing at an ‘impressive217; rate but is trading at a historically low rating, says Liberum.

Analyst Jamie Donald retained his ‘buy’ recommendation but reduced the target price from 568p to 484p. The company reported 8% organic net flows and a 46% rise in new business written year-on-year, with the earnings margins rising 23%. That sent the shares 3.3% higher to 284p yesterday.

‘AFH is now trading at a historically low rating of 8.2 times current year 2020 price/earnings, while showing strong organic growth,’ said Donald.

He reduced earnings per share in 2020 following a change in the revenue model for the firm’s protection business.

[ronwilkes123] 12/11/2019 08:54

They may get further with these price targets if they (liberum) clear this big overhang/seller44 million shares only yet harangued for months by this seller/sellers

[ronwilkes123] 11/11/2019 21:05

Dex please explainWhy was the liberum target reduced ?

[quepassa] 11/11/2019 10:01

OK. thanks. I took "last year" to be y/e 2018 not 2019 as Prelims not yet out!



So effectively Liberum are forecasting that another massive dividend increase will be declared when the full results come out in a couple of months in January 2020.

Liberum are forecasting another near 50% increase in dividend to be declared of 8.7p up from 6p.

That's fantastic and re-assuring.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rivaldo] 11/11/2019 09:45

QuePassa, AFHP declared the 6p divi for the year to 31/10/18 in those final results.

Liberum's divi forecast for the year just gone to 31/10/19 is 8.7p. I assume that this - or an amount similar to it, since this just the analyst forecast - will be similarly announced with the prelims to 31/10/19 in January.

[quepassa] 11/11/2019 09:20

rivaldo.

For year ending 31st October 2018, they declared a 6p dividend January this year with their Final results payable in two lumps as to 2p in Feb '19 and 4p in July '19.

still don't see where the additional 2.7p comes from. please clarify.

See chart:

hXXps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/a/afh-financial-group-plc-ordinary-10p/dividends


This chart is interesting as to DIVIDEND GROWTH FACTORS over last years and BODES WELL.


thanks


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[1pvh] 11/11/2019 09:11

I have quite a holding here and bought a few more this morning. Shouldn't be too much of a stretch to meet those forecast eps figures. Seems to me to be an excellent income paying growth stock. Reassuring as well to see director buying over the last few months

[quepassa] 11/11/2019 09:06

An outstanding and strong Trading Update.


1 Astonishing y.o.y growth in Funds Under Management by a meteoric 36% from £4.4bn to £6bn.

2. Reconfirmation of targeting £10bn in FUM.

3. Statement of no intended further equity raisings

4. Extremely robust revenues of £74m of which £40m is recurring income and £29m derived from new business.Revenues up almost 50% from previous year of £50.4m

5. Reconfirmation of targeting £140m in annual revenues

6. EBITDA expected to be some 70% higher at £17m compared to previous year of £10.4m

7. New financing facility agreed with high quality lender HSBC for £12m which remains UNDRAWN

8. Reconfirmation of strategy of delivereing shareholder returns. Prospect of significant dividend UPLIFT again.



A very strong Trading Update.

AFH appear to be performing exceptionally well with notable growth in revenues .

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rivaldo] 11/11/2019 08:55

QuePassa, the 8.7p dividend is for the year just finished to 31/10/19, i.e last year.

[quepassa] 11/11/2019 08:47

Rivaldo. Don't follow. please check. I thought they declared and paid 6p in y/e 2018 dividend (2p paid Feb and 4p paid July) ??. This was up 50% from the 4p paid in 2017

what does the 8.7p relate to in Liberum's numbers?

But agree that there should be great scope for dividend uplift again.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP