Afh Financial Share Discussion Threads

[dexdringle] 07/6/2019 09:56

Oh for goodness sake. SJP haven't parked several £ billion with Woodford. They merely sub-contracted Woodford as an adviser in respect of a couple of SJP funds. The money and securities remained with SJP. They have now sacked Woodford got someone else in to replace him.

That is the whole point of the SJP Investment Management Approach. They (aim to) get the best external investment managers to oversee and recommend investments for the SJP funds. They don't actually physically pass the money to those external investment managers so it is easy for SJP to switch managers while the fund continues unaffected.

The only issue would be if Woodfords "advice" re underlying investments had been poor and, as a result, the SJP fund he was overseeing had some silly investments in it. That isn't the case because the mandate and fund objectives are totally different from Woodfords own funds. SJP clients are therefore NOT adversely affected by Woodford's issues.

Such poor research and understanding does you no credit.

[quepassa] 07/6/2019 09:18

I wonder whether St. James' Place's ill-fated decision to park several £ billion of AUM/customer funds with Woodford will come back to haunt them.

It also appears that Hargreaves Lansdown have been taking a lot of flack in the press recently for their backing of Woodford and including them in their "Wealth 50" list.. And quite understandably.


-SJP share price down c.10% over a month
-Hargreaves shares down heavily in recent days. Down almost 20% in same period

Compare this to AFHP who are up 20%.



Two things.

1). Will existing customers at SJP or Hargreaves move away?? - Who knows. Maybe. Possibly. Those who lose money through them on Woodford won't be happy.

2). Will potential new pension customers be motivated to explore other pension providers away from Hargreaves and SJP. - Yes they will. Definitely.



The fallout from Woodford is set further to ripple out and cause big waves in the market and for those caught in its wake.

However, those same waves will likely throw up good volumes of new business on new shores.

The bad news for some may turn into good news for others.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[woolybanana] 06/6/2019 10:21

Fair comment, so are we seeing a gentle revaluation in fact?

[johnv] 05/6/2019 21:34

After 6 days of rising price, you do expect some sort of pullback.

[woolybanana] 05/6/2019 13:36

Why the sudden drop today, anybody know, please?

[nfs] 03/6/2019 15:54

Ok thanks Impressive

[rivaldo] 03/6/2019 11:57

No - Shore Capital's numbers as quoted illustrate what they believe AFHP will achieve if they continue to deliver in the same manner as they have been achieving already in reaching their targets early.

They assume no further equity funding and that after deferred consideration is paid, cash generation is utilised on further deals.

[nfs] 03/6/2019 08:51

RivaLos, in your numbers you may have omitted the dilutive impact of share issuances to do the deals to achieve those numbers?

[rivaldo] 31/5/2019 09:35

It's worth noting from Shore Capital's note of 2nd May that if AFHP achieves its 3-5 year medium-term targets, these would translate to a run-rate EPS of 64p.

They note that a fair rating of 15-20 would then imply a share price of around 1120p (discounted back at 10% being 765p).

[rivaldo] 30/5/2019 15:03

Cheers penpont, a good read.

[penpont] 30/5/2019 07:56

IC results coverage:

Half Year Results May 28, 2019


By Alex Newman

While the broader wealth management sector has spent the last year battling regulatory pressures and slowing organic growth, Aim-traded AFH Financial (AFHP) has been busy dancing to its own tune. In a bid to become the UK’s number one financial planning-led wealth manager, the group has been absorbing small teams of independent financial advisers (IFAs), headed by ageing principals. Half-year numbers suggest the plan is bearing fruit.

In the period, AFH made four such acquisitions, adding £640m-worth of investment portfolios. This, together with deals made in the second half of FY2018, and double-digit growth in organic client inflows, meant funds under management stood at £5.4bn by 30 April, a whopping 68 per cent up on last year.

Broker Shore Capital reckons around a third of these assets currently sit on the AFH Direct platform, which waives fees in exchange for managing client money using model portfolios constructed from funds where AFH has negotiated institutional rates. Encouragingly, a focus on lower client costs hasn’t eaten into profitability; moreover, the underlying Ebitda margin rose from 19.5 to 21 per cent year on year.

Shore Capital forecasts adjusted pre-tax profits of £17m and EPS of 29.9p for the year to October 2019, rising to £20.6m and 35.6p in FY2020.

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IC View
Shares in the group rerated on the publication of these numbers, yet still trade at a discount to larger peers such as Brewin Dolphin or Brooks MacDonald. The trade-off in the consolidation strategy has been a rise in working capital, and the possible need for debt or equity financing in coming months. But backed by an increasingly profitable and diversified protection broking division, AFH looks like an undervalued growth story. Speculative buy.

Last IC View: None

[rivaldo] 29/5/2019 09:32

Commentary from Shore Capital - some nice share price targets:

"AFH's Valuation Lacks Future Deals Scenario: Shore Capital

0952 GMT - AFH Financial Group's current valuation isn't close to capturing either the quality or growth in earnings, says Shore Capital, citing the company's healthy pipeline for future deals. "Our three-year forecasts make no assumptions about future acquisitions and still project compound annual EPS growth of 25%," says the U.K. investment group. Shore adds that its initiation report set a fair value range of 490 pence to 650 pence, "with a blue-sky scenario at 765 pence" where AFH meets its aspirational three-to-five year targets to double funds under management to GBP10 billion and generate Ebitda of around GBP35 million on annual revenue of GBP140 million."

[rivaldo] 28/5/2019 15:33

Here's a link to the T.M.F article:

[jrr1] 28/5/2019 09:44

good results, but fear another placing coming.
hopefully not too much dilution.

[rivaldo] 28/5/2019 09:01

Terrific numbers. I had a small stake here prior to today, but topped up first thing this morning.

[shauney2] 28/5/2019 08:16

No worries needed.Very good figures,

Revenue up 61% PBT up 80% EPS up 56% to 10.7p. Net cash is £7.7m.PER 9 with a yield of 3%

[martinthebrave] 28/5/2019 08:11

Excellent Update this morning. Looks like the fears of a Placing were wrong - at least for the time being. Rev's up 61% & Profit ahead 80%. I continue to hold and will add at some point.

[ronwilkes123] 24/5/2019 11:05

Though as the poster says on the Midas page - too low liquidity - too few holders - and an annoying holder drip feeding blocks into the market - means it can slide some distanceI hold solace in the fact last sept it went up from 3-4 in 2 weeks