Afh Financial Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/9/2019 08:14

Liberum retain their 568p target and Buy rating.

They also leave their forecasts unchanged - 31.1p EPS to 31st October upcoming, and 35.6p EPS for next year.

With 8.7p and 10p dividends on top.

[quepassa] 13/9/2019 07:38

This is a very strong, comforting and reassuring update.

And leads personally me to conclude that the recent drifting price is indeed a result of (forced) selling by institutions who have been facing pain/withdrawals on their small-cap funds and have needed to raise cash.

The Update today contains the following words " During the CURRENT year DOUBLE DIGIT gross inflows continue to be achieved whilst outflows, including pension drawdowns, remain below 2%".

On the basis that "DOUBLE DIGIT" means AT LEAST 10%, this must mean that AUM have grown by AT LEAST 8%.

That is amazing growth.

Hence their statement today that AUM are now above £5.6 Billion - bearing in mind that it was only a short while ago that they hit the £5billion mark.

This is astonishing growth.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rivaldo] 13/9/2019 07:16

Excellent earnings-enhancing acquisitions this morning, with more to come soon from the sound of it. And this statement is encouraging too:

"The Company continues to enjoy strong organic inflows of funds from existing and new clients with low redemptions. During the current year double digit gross inflows continue to be achieved whilst outflows, including pension drawdowns, remain below 2%."

Hopefully the RNS re Polar Capital last night, together with the late upturn in the share price, indicates their selling has stopped and it's time for a decent rebound.

[eentweedrie] 13/9/2019 07:10

either way looks like we have reached the bottom now in my view

[eentweedrie] 13/9/2019 07:10

re the large trades yesterday, the price at the time at which they went through was substantially higher than the bid...hence the assumption of them being buys

[melody9999] 13/9/2019 07:08

good rns this am - all going to plan then

Following the placing the Company retains significant levels of cash and remains well placed in this period of economic and political uncertainty to continue its record of delivering profitable growth and enhanced shareholder value."

and I notice the RNS after hours last night so Polar Capital reduced....thats out of the way then!

[melody9999] 12/9/2019 21:32

jrr1 - because the falling share price over past weeks has been due to MMs needing to fill the large sell order - which has only now been reported.

[jrr1] 12/9/2019 18:52

How do you know they were sells ?

[melody9999] 12/9/2019 16:39

een 318 - you may be right - thanks

[dexdringle] 12/9/2019 15:59

melody9999. Agreed. These sorts of volumes are unusual here though. I don't remember significant transactions happening before - let alone multiple ones.

When this goes up it will be sudden.

I already have too many to warrant committing more money but I am tempted....

[aishah] 12/9/2019 15:58

Have to assume that company would have informed the market if there was material change in prospects from last announcement. Looks like an overhang which seems to have cleared now.

[eentweedrie] 12/9/2019 15:43

the ones today were likely acquisitions, not sells

[melody9999] 12/9/2019 15:30

dex - the recent falls are likely because of the large sell order. It is not shown until completed, but the MMs will have been filling the order in the background for the past days / weeks.... add a few PI distressed sales as well as stop losses are hit.

3.5M offloaded - 2M today and 1.5M on Monday

I've doubled my holding this afternoon expecting a share price recovery from here.

[eentweedrie] 12/9/2019 14:35

gaining traction....

[eentweedrie] 12/9/2019 14:20

crikey more huge trades

[dexdringle] 12/9/2019 12:46

Not surprised. Even if they did know of a reason (and they may not) I'm pretty sure they wouldn't disclose it to an individual.

The recent falls have been on modest volume. Then a huge (relatively) sale which caused no significant price movement. Almost as though the price was walked down ready to absorb a large sale.

Employee SAYE share options have started maturing recently and I expect a lot of the small sales will be those.

These do have a habit of racing up though for no obvious reason. It is one of the few shares where the value tends to go up more quickly than it comes down. I expect a sharp upward move will be the next thing to happen. Or a takeover. Which would be nice at around £4....

[aishah] 12/9/2019 12:06

Company not helping as I have e-mailed them twice to comment on any known reason for the price decline but no response!

[eentweedrie] 12/9/2019 12:01

reckon we will soon see an uplift imo

[dexdringle] 10/9/2019 15:52

Yes, it must be Slater, Polar or Merian. Most odd whichever it is. Hopefully some sort of RNS will be forthcoming or we will have to wait for the next website "current significant shareholders" list to be updated. Although knowing which one it was won't necessarily throw any more light on it.

I can't remember there ever being significant selling on this one so it is an unusual development. Makes you think this has been coming for a while hence the gradual fall from £3.70....?

[quepassa] 10/9/2019 14:24

These are the major shareholders of AFHP shares as at early last month 9th. August 2019.

hXXps://www.afhwm.co.uk/investor-relations/shareholders/



There would not appear to be many holders who could shift blocks of 2,000,000 shares.

Out of interest there are 42.7 million ordinary voting shares in issue. A block of 2,000,000 shares represents a MASSIVE 4.68% of voting rights.

I am astonished that the combined 2,000,000 shares (being three blocks all executed at the identical price and within less than a minute) didn't trigger some form of RNS release (yet).


My guess is that we have a (forced?) seller on our hands - perhaps a small-cap fund seeing investor withdrawals and needing to raise cash like Woodford- but just guessing, nothing more.

Personally, I would certainly expect an RNS in the n.t.d.f. concerning the big volumes earlier today.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[aishah] 10/9/2019 13:49

Slater reduced recently. Will we get notification of the 2m+ soon?

[riverman77] 10/9/2019 13:30

I'm pretty certain Woodford has never held this.

[quepassa] 10/9/2019 13:06

Just a question.....

...anyone know if Woodford held this stock and is a seller....

[dexdringle] 10/9/2019 13:03

Given that minimal volumes either way tend to move the price it's interesting that a 2M share sale doesn't really move the price. It's all a bit odd. MM's must want stock though ?


I can't imagine who'd sell 2M shares at this price - unless it was one of the 'absorbed' advisers who took shares in part payment for their business and has decided to bail. Or has died. Or whatever.

[eentweedrie] 10/9/2019 12:42

well that is exactly why this downturn makes no sense to me. holding fire for a bit longer before taking a position