Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 26/5/2024 16:14

Somaliland is highly prospective.Odewayne will eventually be huge for Afentra.

[excellance] 26/5/2024 14:36

Yes. Sterling Energy SEY were acquired by RTO and evolved into African Energy Transition, AFENTRA, and after a couple of years of negotiations and applications they have landed with a very promising package of production and exploration licenses, and a bit of debt to factor into the mix, but they essentially used the preexisting Sterling Energy bank balance which was from memory about £25m, which was a great start.

chinguetti and the Kurdish licenses are long gone, there maybe something in Somalia left but it is negligible if it still exists.

[dunderheed] 26/5/2024 14:22

1095 yes but without (most of the) the staff, lol!

[cardinal3] 26/5/2024 14:00

I took the plunge last week after looking at this thread. Thanks MT.

[cat33] 26/5/2024 13:51

Good summary from Jimhttps://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-26-may-2024Worth reading

[mount teide] 26/5/2024 13:04

As predicted by many here, the legalised theft more commonly known as the UK O&G Windfall Tax regime, which applies to exploration for, and production of, oil and gas in the UK and on the UK Continental Shelf:

Ring Fence Corporation Tax (30%)
Supplementary Charge (10%)
Energy Profits Levy (35%)

has been a total disaster for O&G companies(and shareholders) that have most of their assets located within the scope of the UK Windfall Tax regime.

Shareprice performance since announcement of UK O&G Windfall Tax in May 2022:

+880% - Valeura Energy (SE Asia)
+275% - Afentra (West Africa)
+25% - Arrow Exp (S America)
+24% - Petrotal (S America)

-39% - Serica Energy (UKCS)
-58% - Enquest (UKCS)
-67% - Jadestone Energy (SE Asia)
-68% - Kistos (Entered UKCS in July 2022)


Shareprice performance since Q4/2021 London IPO of Arrow Exploration:

+1,075% - Valeura Energy (SE Asia)
+301% - Afentra (West Africa)
+228% - Arrow Exp (S America)
+105% - Petrotal (S America)

-24% - Serica Energy (UKCS)
-38% - Enquest (UKCS)
-57% - Jadestone Energy (SE Asia)
-61% - Kistos (Entered UKCS in July 2022)

AIMHO/DYOR

Not satisfied with the current Government's ruinous 75% tax take from the UKCS O&G industry, an incoming Labour Government has said it plans to introduce 'a proper Windfall Tax' on taking office!

Robin Allan, chairman of the independent explorers' association Brindex, recently said the industry is: "close to collapse, as almost no new projects in the North Sea are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel. It's almost impossible to make money at these oil prices"......."In terms of new investments - there will be none, everyone is retreating, people are being laid off at most companies. Budgets for 2025 are being cut by everyone".

[mount teide] 26/5/2024 13:01

UK's Labour reaffirms plan for higher North Sea oil, gas tax ahead of vote - S&P Global - 22 May 2024

'The UK Labour Party on the cusp of national elections reaffirmed plans to increase the Energy Profits Levy on North Sea oil and gas producers while removing tax breaks, with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves saying renewables had a "really bright future" and would increase energy security.

The comments at London's Chatham House on May 22 came as the incumbent Conservative government called a general election for July 4, with opinion polls suggesting Labour are positioned for victory. It comes as multiple companies have reduced activity and investment, citing fiscal instability and exorbitant tax rates, with some specifically pinpointing Labour's plans.
Reeves took aim at previous Conservative governments for allowing reductions in gas storage capacity, which are now being partially reinstated by utility Centrica.

The UK still derives 74% of its energy needs from oil and gas, according to industry group Offshore Energies UK.

Current Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said March 6 the government was extending the 35% Energy Profits Levy to 2029 from the previous cutoff in 2028.

Reeves, whose party was instrumental in pushing the Conservatives to bring in the EPL in 2022, said the levy would have a lifetime "no longer than the next parliament," albeit at a higher rate than presently. She added that greater use of renewables could be disinflationary thanks to technology advances.

Labour envisages "doubling down on the investment that we need to see in home-grown renewables so we are less at the mercy of those global markets for oil and gas," Reeves said. "This is about diversification, and it's about seeing what more we can do at home -- we've got huge potential ... to be producing more home-grown energy. This isn't just about meeting our climate obligations, it's also about ensuring that we are more secure as a country, and in turn bringing down energy bills."

Comparable to Norway's rate
On the EPL, which lifted the headline tax rate on upstream oil and gas to 75%, Reeves said her proposal for a further hike to an overall rate of 78% would be comparable with Norway. Critics of Labour's plans note Norway has a long record of tax stability, staged tax allowances for investment and generous tax breaks for exploration.

"We're going to need North Sea oil and gas for many decades still to come," Reeves said. "We will honor all the existing licenses for oil and gas, but we won't be granting new ones."

"We would extend [the Energy Profits Levy], we would increase the rate to 78%, as is the rate in Norway, and we would get rid of the investment allowances," she said. "We see some companies paying very little of the EPL at all. But that would be a time-limited extension of the windfall tax, it would last no longer than the next parliament."

Reeves' comment about some companies paying little of the EPL refers to companies using past investments to offset potential tax liabilities, which because of the size of project spending can provide a significant cushion.

Reeves said that her party had been "really clear" with the industry and the industry continued to invest, adding, "We see a really bright future for the North Sea because of the huge potential in some of the low carbon industries of the future."

The comments come as the UK gears up for a potential change of government after more than 14 years of Conservative-led government.

Numerous oil and gas operators have criticized the UK tax regime, with companies such as TotalEnergies saying it is scaling back normally routine drilling operations and others holding off approving new projects.

UK oil output decline accelerated to 12% in 2023, with average output falling to 716,000 b/d. UK oil output is now down by more than a third since 2019.

The industry argues the sky-high price spikes in gas that might have justified windfall taxes on the sector are far in the past, with gas prices back to levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and oil markets well supplied going into the summer. The Platts Dated Brent benchmark was assessed at $81.50/b May 21, down 83 cents on the day. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Reeves, however, insisted more investment could be attracted in renewables through reforms to the planning system, for example to facilitate offshore wind farm construction.

"We need in the UK ... to address some of the structural issues that are holding back investment," she said. "If you say to companies who are looking at doing floating offshore wind or carbon capture, or building a new giga-factory, or in other industries ... they're not saying to us, give us a huge subsidy and we will do this, they're saying reform your planning system."'

Lol - Ms Reeves, Roy Chubby Brown would pay good money for material like that!

[mount teide] 25/5/2024 18:56

Virtually two years to the day this article appeared in O&G Industry Journal 'Energy Voice'....

Angola sets out its stall in bid to boost production - Energy Voice


....highlighting the opportunities the Angolan O&G industry was throwing up from the Government putting in place improved fiscal/commercial/licence terms to support new exploration and, to maximise production from existing licensed areas.

Afentra has since positioned itself very well - as a result of their excellent relationship with the Angolan O&G Regulator and Sonangol the NOC - to confidently pursue further mature asset divestment opportunities offered by the ongoing privatisation of Sonanagol and, assets no longer considered material to some of the major independents.


' .......“The existing concessions still have a lot of remaining potential. There is a high volume of marginal resources. Part of the legal changes in the last three years have been to unlock the resources that exist on producing blocks. We are considering creating new terms for mature fields.” ...Angolan Regulator

Angola has a “mix of frontier and mature basins. But we believe we have the right conditions for you to come and make investments”.

A number of small and mid-sized companies are keen to buy production, but the number capable of signing up for work in West Africa – convincing governments and investors alike of the plan – is limited. Afentra is driven by three former Tullow Oil execs, alongside Cloke is CEO Paul McDade and CFO Anastasia Deulina.

“We were really impressed with the quality of the assets when Sonangol started its privatisation process last year – and out of that came Block 3/05,” Cloke continued.

Angola’s drive to sign up new interests was clearly reflected in the discussions it held with Afentra. “In the last few years there’s what feels like a fundamental shift in country. Sonangol has changed, fiscal terms, licence terms they’ve all changed. There’s a recognition from Angola that production is coming down and they need more investment.”

Cloke would not rule out further acquisitions in Angola, saying there was plenty of running room. “I don’t think we’re going to wait six months” for the Angola deal to close, he said. “We’re screening the whole of West Africa.”

CFO Duelina, also speaking at the conference, said there was a smaller pool of capital available to support plans. “Only the most capable companies will be able to access it, is our view,” she said.

“We’ve been speaking to both equity and credit for the last 12 months and it’s our deep conviction that, for the right project there will be financing. But they will need to meet criteria that, even five years ago, was not important.”

While the company will not move into the deepwater, there are plenty of other assets to consider.

“It’s about looking at the capex profile, around the shallow water and the onshore. Angola is the first deal through. We felt when we set up Afentra last year that there was a wave coming of divestments from the majors. That’s happening. There’s plenty of opportunities – it’s about getting the right opportunity.” '

[yumyum] 24/5/2024 22:17

P/E of 3.5?

[elsa7878] 24/5/2024 15:53

Can buy in size now - so possibly a late washout like yesterday.

[fatfish] 24/5/2024 15:47

Friday day traders exiting, lets see if we can hold on to 60p

[taurusthebear] 24/5/2024 14:49

Onedayrodders - yes, a nice healthy consolidation of the share price at 55p.... for one day. :-)

It seems to still be in the process of reflecting what is coming, rather than what could also come, and in that respect it still seems to have plenty of upside, with or without consolidation/pullback.

[onedayrodders] 24/5/2024 14:44

Apologies if posted already

Malcy's view

"Although we already know the background to this deal it is still very good news for Afentra who have worked hard and long to identify this great opportunity and then go through the very long process to deliver it. I’m sure that they are not the only deals that Afentra will do as it has a highly respected management team that knows its way around the continent and has big ambitions.

Afentra has been one of the strongest stocks in the Bucket List and has increased by around 135% year on year and I think that Paul and his very strong team would still maintain the shares are worth a great deal more, as I do."

[mount teide] 24/5/2024 10:11

ff - you may well be right.

However, for retail investors, it's hardly an encouraging state of affairs when the FCA is funded entirely by the firms it is supposedly regulating!

The US Securities Exchange Commission is not much better - with respect to the huge Madoff fraud, one infuriated politician at a senate hearing suggested the management of the SEC could not find their backsides with both hands with the lights turned on, after Madoff confessed on National TV to carrying out a $60bn investment fraud over twenty years, despite being repeatedly 'investigated' by the SEC after an industry professional brought 5 complaints over 8 years showing how Madoff was carrying out a major fraud, yet the SEC still failed to find any case to answer.

Incredibly, with respect to Madoff it was not just the market regulator who let down the investment community.

Despite Madoff stealing every dime from day one, his 'investment' fund was given a clean bill of health by one of the big four accountancy firms for over twenty years!

The whistleblower, said if Madoff was legit, at its peak his investment fund would have been responsible for over 10% of the entire daily transaction volume of the New York Stock Exchange. So he went onto the dealing floor of the exchange and asked the biggest broker dealers how much work they did for Bernie. Everyone said the same thing" "Nothing - we don't think he's legit!".

Despite Madoff's fund supposedly returning a better long term investment performance than the biggest Wall Street investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, neither they or any other Wall Street investment bank had a dime invested in Madoff's fund. When asked why, the whistleblower, a rival investment fund manager smiled and famously said: "People who live in glass houses don't throw stones" - ie: exposing Madoff would be bad for business!

[pastybap] 24/5/2024 09:21

Its been a frustrating time for me watching this continue to rise. All my OandG capital made from RRE has been tied up in AXL for the past year or so, half of which I have been "waiting for the right time" to invest here. The wait continues!

[onedayrodders] 24/5/2024 08:32

Good call MT !

[dragon35] 24/5/2024 08:06

Doesn't this trade SETS? If so then the MM have little relevance surely?

[tim000] 24/5/2024 07:14

Well said, fatfish.

[fatfish] 24/5/2024 07:03

Mount
The remaining 20% are probably high profile people making themselves even wealthier than they are today. The FCA are a government body, who do you think the 20% are when the FCA do nothing about a £1billion fraud but gloat about making a £35 k from some poor sole trying to make a living. Look how much certain people made out of covid, the biggest scandal that now seems to have disappeared.

[mount teide] 23/5/2024 23:40

'r1 - According to Stockopedia, tree shaking is a myth - the market is too strongly regulated for shenanigans.'

lol! Stockopedia could go on tour with material like that!

Price manipulation remains endemic to equity markets - for the FCA to claim with a straight face, they're doing a good job providing market oversight on the strength of reducing stock selling using inside information before a placing announcement or buying before a takeover announcement, from circa 30% to 20% of all trades over the last decade is outrageous!

If they know that 20% of these trades are the result of people committing fraud - what are they doing about it?

[yumyum] 23/5/2024 23:21

What amazing deals Afentra have done. Aggregate net completions payments for the three deals was $76.5m, and they now have around 840,000 bbls oil in stock. They have nearly 7000bbl/day production going forward and plenty of upsides in various ways.
Those deals could not have turned out better even with very optimistic eyes. Long time from signing until closures has been very advantageous to Afentra.

[yumyum] 23/5/2024 23:12

What amazing deals Afentra have done.

[roghart1] 23/5/2024 22:28

According to Stockopedia, tree shaking is a myth - the market is too strongly regulated for shenanigans.

[billy two cocks] 23/5/2024 20:50

I agree with Mount Teide, market makers shaking out weak holders.

Exciting times.