Afentra Share Discussion Threads

[eringael] 11/5/2024 11:58

Morning Mount Teide, what was your take on PTAL's Q1 results, that river bank must be a sizeable project to require up to 75 million

[roghart1] 10/5/2024 16:52

I usually see AET mentioned most days on Twitter - guess it's down to who you follow. I know of at least 4 who posted today. I prefer it quiet lke this. Goes up at it's own pace instead being played by pump and dumpers.

[mount teide] 10/5/2024 16:45

Completion of the Sonangol working interest acquisition took 30 days following Government approval but, included the preparation of a Supplementary Admission Document.

We are now 15 days post receipt of Government approval for the Azule acquisition - so, should reasonably expect to receive notification of completion during the next 1-2 weeks.

[mount teide] 10/5/2024 16:27

Not just Advfn where Afentra is off the radar. On Twitter, most of my other O&G holdings - Valeura, Jadestone, Touchstone, Arrow and Petrotal - all average numerous daily posts, with the exception of the Afentra group which has 66 members and has not seen a post since 30th April!

[roks] 10/5/2024 16:10

Probably better this way, keep it under the radar 😉

[mount teide] 10/5/2024 16:07

Got to admire Afentra shareholders for how they like to hide their light under a bushel.

Up over 4% today to another new break-out high generates just a single Advfn post during trading hours!

Suspect we would make good poker players.

[roks] 10/5/2024 13:50

Breaking out into new territory....

[kumala] 10/5/2024 13:48

Another good day....Pushing foward/upwards to new high's:)

[mount teide] 07/5/2024 22:54

Kamala - Good to hear!

The management have performed very well for their shareholders, during what has been a highly challenging 2-3 years for the O&G small cap sector.

[kumala] 07/5/2024 19:43

Couple more pennies for me and i'l be in the 1 bagger club with you.:)Cheers:)

[mount teide] 07/5/2024 11:23

Today, the stock became a 1 bagger for me - since building a holding, such has been the progress made by the management growing the business/strengthening the investment case - aided fortuitously, by some oil price and deal completion date good fortune - the investment 'value' currently on offer following government approval of AET's third working interest acquisition, is probably better than at any time I've been a holder.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 07/5/2024 11:01

TTB - Good to hear you've taken a position/see value at AET.

[taurusthebear] 07/5/2024 09:43

That would make for some nice returns. :-)

I notice Angola is now visa-free for 30 days, it seems to be becoming more foreigner-friendly.

[onedayrodders] 07/5/2024 09:28

welcome Taurus .... expecting a billion market cap here given time to reward the patient

[taurusthebear] 07/5/2024 09:25

Joined the party early doors with some new ISA funds. :0)

[fatfish] 07/5/2024 07:44

941 shares bought at 49.70p and 5 mins later 10000 sold at 49.921p surely advfn that should be a buy ???

[extrader] 05/5/2024 18:42

The Cubans were instrumental in Angola gaining independence, see

and



Battle of Cuito Cuanavale from 1987 to 1988 was the largest land battle in Africa since World War II, where some of the bloodiest clashes of the Angolan Civil War took place.

On the one hand, the FAPLA, the armed forces of the MPLA, at the height of power fought, supported by the Cuban army, and on the other, the FALA, armed forces of UNITA, supported by the South African Army.

Thousands of combatants died on both sides. At the end of the battle of Cuito Cuanavale, both UNITA and the MPLA declared themselves victorious.

The biggest consequence of this conflict was the withdrawal of Cuban and South African forces from Angolan territory, and the consequent independence of Namibia.

With the ostensible 'rollback' of the Communist menace - its historic justification - South Africa acknowledged political reality and the apartheid regime negotiated a peaceful transition of power to the African majority.

Angola owes/owed Cuba big-time...

ATB

[tim000] 05/5/2024 17:10

Sonangol has farmed in to a major exploration and development project in Cuba with ASX listed Melbana Energy. Seems strange that they are reducing investment at home in favour of helping to develop Cuba’s nascent O&G industry, but no doubt the two countries have fairly close longstanding ties.

[mount teide] 05/5/2024 16:46

Energy Transition - Just as many here predicted, the European supermajor pivot to renewables collapses due to unacceptable financial returns.

The O&G supermajor is dead long live the O&G supermajor!

Grandstanding by European and UK 'eco' politicians anxious to burnish their 'green' credentials, has enabled the US O&G supermajors, who correctly forecasted the appalling real world economics of renewables, to steal an oil production growth march on their European peers!

'While the U.S. supermajors continue to raise their oil production, including via major acquisitions, their European peers have only recently pivoted back to boosting oil and gas production after several years of trying to convince shareholders that spending on renewables would pay off—and failing. After the energy crisis, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies are back to raising oil and gas output, but the U.S. supermajors are far ahead in oil production growth and plans, thanks to the Permian and Guyana.'


The U.S. Supermajors Double Down on World's Top Oil Basins - Oilprice.com today

'Profits at ExxonMobil and Chevron have dropped compared to the record-highs of the past two years, but the U.S. supermajors are doubling down on oil production from the two most prolific growth basins, the Permian shale patch and a top-performing block offshore Guyana.

Both Exxon and Chevron plan to further boost their footprint and oil production in the U.S. and the South American country. Until a few months ago, the key growth driver was higher drilling activity and improved efficiency in the Permian. Now, major acquisitions worth more than $50 billion for each of the two supermajors are set to add to organic growth and further boost their oil production from the world's premier growth basins.

Thanks to the Permian and other advantaged assets such as Guyana, Exxon has almost doubled its upstream unit profitability at constant prices from $5 per oil-equivalent barrel in 2019 to $9 as of the first quarter of 2024. The supermajor expects unit profitability to jump further to $13 per oil-equivalent barrel by 2027.

Unit earnings from the 'advantaged assets' are expected to be $9 per barrel higher than the base portfolio by 2027 at constant prices.

The growth in advantaged assets is a real key driver in terms of overall growth in Exxon's upstream business and a key driver of earnings growth.

Exxon is set to become the top Permian producer soon, as it continues to expect that the U.S. antitrust authority will give the green light to its proposed $60-billion all-stock acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources by the end of the second quarter.

Announcing the acquisition of Pioneer, Exxon said in October 2023 that the proposed transaction "transforms ExxonMobil's upstream portfolio, more than doubling the company's Permian footprint and creating an industry-leading, high-quality, high-return undeveloped U.S. unconventional inventory position." At close, ExxonMobil's Permian production volume would more than double to 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, based on 2023 volumes, and is expected to increase to approximately 2 million boepd in 2027.

The Permian has been a key driver of production growth at Chevron, too. The supermajor booked slightly higher earnings for the first quarter than analysts had expected, thanks to higher oil and gas production that offset part of the weaker refined product margins and low natural gas prices.

Chevron's worldwide production was up 12% from a year ago, primarily due to the acquisition of PDC, strong operational performance in the Permian and DJ Basins in the U.S., and the Tengizchevroil affiliate in Kazakhstan.

This year, Chevron expects its Permian production to rise by another 10%, following 10% growth last year, it said in its 2024 production outlook.

Chevron is also looking to gain exposure to another hot oil production area—offshore Guyana, via the proposed acquisition of Hess Corporation, which is Exxon's partner in the offshore Stabroek block that pumps about 600,000 bpd of crude oil.

Apart from regulatory clearance, Chevron and Exxon are in an arbitration case over whether Exxon has the right to first refusal of Hess's stake in Stabroek.

"It's remarkable to think that within eight years of first oil, Guyana will have a production capacity of more than 1.3 million barrels per day," Exxon's CEO Darren Woods said, adding, "I believe Guyana will go down as one of the most successful deepwater developments in the history of the industry."

While the U.S. supermajors continue to raise their oil production, including via major acquisitions, their European peers have only recently pivoted back to boosting oil and gas production after several years of trying to convince shareholders that spending on renewables would pay off—and failing. After the energy crisis, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies are back to raising oil and gas output, but the U.S. supermajors are far ahead in production growth and plans, thanks to the Permian and Guyana.'

ps:
Angola - ExxonMobil, is looking to invest as much as $15 billion into the development of hydrocarbon reserves in Angola’s offshore Namibe Basin by 2030.

Improved fiscal terms for Exxon's Blocks 30, 44, and 45 secured last year from Angola’s national concessionaire and regulatory body(ANPG); has made exploration in offshore Angola so competitive it's enticed Exxon back to Africa.

According to Exxon the investment is largely based on the success of major commercial oil discoveries in the southern African country and follows the improvement of fiscal terms in the basin by the Government of Angola.

Exxon expects to make up to $200 million of investment this year into further seismic studies and the drilling of an exploratory well - and estimates the development of a large commercial discovery could result in revenue of between $20 billion and $40 billion for the country – at an average oil price of $55/bbl.

[mount teide] 05/5/2024 11:29

Update to a post made earlier in the year.

RE: Divestment of high quality, mature O&G assets in fiscally attractive / low taxed Angola.

The operating partner of all our Angolan offshore and onshore assets, Sonangol, the NOC, is currently enacting a huge privatisation scheme, which includes the disposal of a material segment of its O&G assets.

This is likely to provide further high quality acquisition opportunities as it's consistent with Afentra's MO and positioning as a key stakeholder to Sonangol:

'Afentra’s entry into Angola in May 2023 saw the Company establish a foothold in a key target geography with a wealth of future growth opportunities. Afentra is acquiring interests in quality assets with scope to enhance and extend production alongside improving environmental performance, while positioning itself as a key stakeholder to support state-owned Sonangol with its transition strategy.

Afentra’s strategy is to build a material diverse portfolio of mid-life producing assets that no longer fit the portfolio of major companies. We seek to optimise, redevelop and extend their lives in a safe, responsible manner whilst reducing harmful emissions. These production assets underpin the business with LOW-RISK cash flow. Over time, Afentra aims to build a portfolio of operated positions, levering the extensive technical operating experience possessed by the team. We will also acquire non-operated positions alongside quality operators and credible JV partners with a shared alignment to operational excellence and environmental stewardship.'


Angola - Sonangol Asset Divestment Programme

In June 2022, Sonangol began a process to hunt for partners in blocks 3/05, 4/05, 5/06, 15/06, 18, 23, 27 and 31 in an effort to attract new investors to boost oil and gas production and also reduce its financial obligations.

Ten years ago and more, a barrel-load of bidders would have battled to enter these blocks, which offer exploration, development and production opportunities aplenty in a country once considered the oil world’s El Dorado.... Upstream 2021

'Admittedly, under the regime of former president Jose Eduardo dos Santos, few companies apart from incumbent supermajors — or those close to Sonangol, the ruling clan and its running dogs — would have had a realistic chance of acquiring these assets.

Many deals would have been agreed behind closed doors, with only those in the know and with strong Angolan relationships standing a chance of being successful.

But times have changed. Angola’s President Joao Lourenco genuinely seems to want things done by the book, with increased transparency the order of the day — as reflected in the formal bid agenda for this Sonangol farm-out process covering deep-water and shallow-water blocks.

While these "open book" efforts are laudable, they coincide with the energy transition, so it will be a challenging time for any competitive acreage bid process.

Jersing, currently business development advisor to privately owned exploration start-up Eburon Resources, described the three offshore blocks as “heartlandR21; plays with significant producing fields plus development and exploration upside. “They will go for hundreds of $millions because they are extraordinary assets,” he said.

Another block with promise is 3/05, where operator Sonangol wants to reduce its 50% stake. A non-operating stake in this asset could be in the sweet spot for acquisitive Afentra, the investment vehicle of former Tullow Oil chief executive Paul McDade, and also Vaalco Energy, Jersing said....."The exercise will attract interest from new companies,” but warned, “we’re not in the golden age of the oil industry......suggested bids could be based on future oil prices of $55 to $60 per barrel." '


Interesting to note that Sonangol elected to choose preferred bidders for the offshore acreage farm-out of these first eight assets put up for divestment.

Afentra was one of six initial bidders on shallow water block 3/05, which proved one of the most highly regarded and bid-on.

After the dust settled and smoke cleared on the auction process, Afentra, indigenous player Somoil, and Namibia’s state oil company Namcor were among the major winners for the various assets, while 10 bidders failed to get selected to make the grade.

The successful bids and financial return projections for the eight assets up for auction would, without question, have been based/heavily influenced by the $57.28/bbl average oil price during the seven year period prior to the announcement of the auction.

Afentra's Q1/2023 Presentation of the Valuation Summary of the Block 3/05 Deal, confirms this view:

* $70-80/bbl oil has potential to deliver >50% value increase
* Afentra Investment case/Upside potential provides an additional 30% value increase
* Robust asset economics with a breakeven of $35/bbl
* Potential to improve and maintain Opex @ $20/bbl'
* Every 1% increase in recovery from OIIP of 3 billion bbls delivers 30 mmbbl
* Minimal Capex required to realise 2P case of 115.2 mmbbl
* Significant upside from 2C & 3C resources with potential for further upgrades


With a consensus 2024/25 Brent forecast of $80-$90/bbl, the 3/05 working interest has the potential, after adjustment for the financial benefit accrued from the effective economic date of the deal, to annually throw off free cash equivalent to multiples of the final price paid for the asset,

AIMHO/DYOR

[tim000] 05/5/2024 09:39

The Azule website shows that the company has widespread interests in Angola, although there’s no detail on production levels per block. As you say though xxnjr, it seems quite likely that this sale to AET is a harbinger of a disinvestment strategy from Angola, to focus on larger projects such as Namibia.

[xxnjr] 03/5/2024 18:31

I see Azule have farmed into Rhino's block in Namibia's Orange Basin. Can't say I'm familiar with Azule's other assets in Angola but if they have success in Namibia it could possibly herald further Angolan mature asset sales, assuming there are more mature Azule assets to sell.....

[someuwin] 03/5/2024 14:16

Lots of buys all of a sudden.

[onedayrodders] 01/5/2024 06:30

Thanks Tim ... but I accept it was sort of inevitable!